Land availability for greenhouse gas removal by afforestation and Biomass Energy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS)

To meet the aspirations of the UNFCCC Paris Climate Agreement to limit increases of global mean temperature to well below 2C, future scenarios assume the large-scale use of afforestation and biomass energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. The availability of land and biomass residue streams (e.g. waste material from harvest) are key constraints on the ability to deliver these negative emission technologies at scale, given a context of global dietary trends and the inefficiencies in the global food system.

In this directly-funded NERC PhD the student will critically assess the land use and residue stream assumptions used in future scenarios. You will start by critically examining the land-use scenarios from existing integrated assessment model studies used of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). The next stage will involve a global spatial analysis of land-use and residue streams under a range of dietary and food system efficiency scenarios, using historical data and future UN projections of demand for food and other plant and animal products. Within this, the student will explore alternative scenarios of how demand for food and fibre is met and how it translates into land-use, which depends on factors such as crop yield, type of meat consumed, meat production systems and levels of waste within the food system. There will be opportunities to extend the analysis to consider economic trade-offs.

GGR Consortium: FAB GGR
Who and How?
The main beneficiaries outside of the scientific community for our project are:
Policymakers: National and international policymakers will benefit from results of FAB GGR to inform policy on climate change, land-use and innovation. At the UK-level relevant policymakers and advisory groups include BEIS, Defra, the Climate Change Committee (CCC), and the Natural Capital Committee (NCC). The Paris Agreement seeks to hold global mean temperature to well below 2 degrees C and to pursue efforts to limit warming to 1.5 degrees C. Future emission pathways that are commensurate with these temperature increases rely extensively on the use of carbon dioxide removal. The two most commonly used methods of carbon dioxide removal in these emission pathways are afforestation and Biomass Energy with Carbon Capture and Storage, which both involve large-scale changes in land-use. FAB GGR will provide information on the feasibility of the large scale application of these methods. This information is relevant to determine what CO2 emissions pathways are realistic for given climate targets and informs policies for driving innovation (BEIS, CCC). FAB GGR will also provide information on the implications of these methods for land-use and ecosystem services at global and UK scales (Defra, NCC), and the proposal team includes Co-I Bateman who is a member of the NCC.
The IPCC and UNFCCC: FAB GGR will provide key information on the feasibility of large scale afforestation and BECCS as currently used in future emission pathways that limit temperature increase to 1.5-2 degrees C. This will contribute to decision making associated with how to achieve the aspirations of the Paris Agreement on climate change, by improving our understanding of how much carbon dioxide can be removed by these methods at a national and global scale, which will influence the revisions of Nationally Determined Contributions. The IPCC WGIII report identified the importance of assessing not just the technical potential of mitigation and GGR activities but more importantly their real world feasibility. FAB GGR will directly address this question which impacts on the ability to 'overspend' cumulative carbon budgets in the near term by conducting GGR in the longer term. The improvement in understanding presented by FAB GGR will therefore impact directly upon near term policy choices and will make significant contributions to AR6 and AR7.
The media and the public: FAB GGR researchers are active in promoting a good public understanding of climate science and policy, particularly greenhouse gas removal and climate change mitigation. The work of FAB GGR will contribute to the ongoing public discussions about how to address climate change, how much climate change, and impacts that might be expected.
Other scientists across disciplines: FAB GGR research spans a broad range of disciplines. We will engage within disciplinary and at interdisciplinary academic peers through publication in high impact disciplinary and interdisciplinary journals and attendance at key national and international conferences for these communities. Our academic impact will be increased through our extensive national and international networks and be supported by our advisory panel.