Future forests and wild woods: modelling the responses of trees to climate, land-use, soils and mycorrhizal symbioses

Describing and modelling the large-scale responses of plants to climate change is essential if we are to design ecologically appropriate management strategies for urban, rural, and wild areas. This project will focus specifically on the development of mathematical models that explore factors contributing to the establishment and persistence of forests and woodlands. Studies of species responses to climate change almost invariably focus on climate itself as a predictor, yet there are several other key determinants of changes in distribution and function. Soils provide the ecological and historical context into which individual plants must disperse, germinate, establish, and develop. Soil biology is particularly important: trees typically form obligate symbotic associations with mycorrhizal fungi, but must also contend with fungal pathogens like Armillaria root disease. Layered onto these ecological components is human land-use, the scale and history of which is an essential component of past and contemporary ecosystems. The disturbances arising from urbanization, farming, forest harvesting practices, the creation of parks, and natural processes can all have significant impacts on future forests and woodlands.

The aims of this project are to:

collect quantitative data on i) survival, growth, and aboveground functional traits of multiple provenances of key tree species in the field, and ii) belowground functional traits of roots and fungal symbionts using experimental lab-based approaches
use this data to parameterize species-specific models of responses to climate change, soils, and land-use impacts
construct individual-based models incorporating information on climate, soils, and soil biota to explore the consequences for future forest regeneration and persistence in a wide range of abiotic and biotic conditions

This project combines theoretical and field ecology (Pickles), ecophysiological expertise (Tibbett), and mathematical modelling (Sibly), to explore the growth, survival, and functional responses of trees to changes in climate, soil, land-use and biotic interactions. Field, lab, and mathematical approaches will be to construct models of forest responses to future climate change and land-use pressures, and the project engages with five NERC's seven goals for the QMEE CDT:

Use/development of statistical and computational tools.
Development of theory, and integration of theory into models.
Mathematical modelling of ecological systems on diverse temporal and spatial scales.
Quantitative population ecology.
Integration of data from the wider environmental sciences into ecological models.