Travel Behaviour and Weather Resilience: Translating Trends in Space-Time Flexibility
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Birmingham
Department Name: Sch of Geography, Earth & Env Sciences
Abstract
This project researches the relationship between changing trends in daily travel patterns and travel behaviour during severe weather events or extreme weather due to climate change, and examines the influence of technology on this relationship. The overarching research question is whether new technologies and the observed increased flexibility in the economy and in individual accessibility results in a greater ability or potential to respond to severe weather, risk, and disruption, thereby increasing resilience. A wide range of literature is reviewed, including that on travel behaviour and weather, weather risk to transport infrastructure, travel behaviour and technology, and big data analysis in mobility and accessibility. A variety of data sources contributes to the empirical analysis, including data from the UK National Travel Survey, electronic ticketing data from a small bus company, crowd-sourced broadband speed check data, origin-destination matrices derived from mobile phone network data, and open and public geographical data. The project builds on the author's prior knowledge and experience as a professional transport planner, and utilises data science and econometric methods and the open-source statistical software R. The aim is to provide evidence of the interacting influences of weather and technology on accessibility in both time and space, and explore how resilient access behaviours may be developed, reinforced, and replicated.
Organisations
People |
ORCID iD |
| Emmanouil Tranos (Primary Supervisor) | |
| Hannah Budnitz (Student) |
Studentship Projects
| Project Reference | Relationship | Related To | Start | End | Student Name |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE/M009009/1 | 05/10/2015 | 31/12/2022 | |||
| 2190551 | Studentship | NE/M009009/1 | 01/10/2016 | 30/09/2019 | Hannah Budnitz |
| Description | This research project was designed to identify the opportunities that improving Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) and increasing space-time flexibility create for commuters and other travellers to better respond to severe weather, risk, and transport disruption, thereby boosting resilience and enabling more sustainable choices. Both the literature review and empirical analyses confirm the importance of work activities to the organisation of daily travel, and also provide evidence that the robustness of ICT infrastructure plus more flexible working patterns can increase resilience, which is an integral part of sustainability, if commuters maintain productivity even where they cannot get to work. First, the research aimed to use data sources and quantitative methodologies to interrogate the influence of geographic and socio-economic characteristics on space-time flexibility and accessibility trends in order to understand how these influences interact with travel or access behaviour responses to severe weather. These interlocking objectives were met, as the empirical research provides new evidence that people who have spatial flexibility, in that they have alternative means to access workplaces via robust transport options, or who have temporal flexibility, such as part-time workers, are more likely to change their behaviour during extreme weather events. Specifically, in Reading, employees used a Park and Ride service in the outbound direction to access a local business park, rather than waiting for a severely delayed or cancelled train. In the West Midlands, neighbourhoods with higher proportions of part time and self-employed residents were more likely to generate fewer trips under storm conditions. The research also aimed to seek out insights into those response options which have been subject to less research in the past, and consider their potential implications for future policy. In the West Midlands, whilst a similar number of trips were taken overall, significantly more of these were direct commuting journeys, indicating a reduction in linked trips and a switch in journey purposes fulfilled, a choice underrepresented in previous studies. Other empirical analysis indicated that regular telecommuters are not only more resilient because they are empowered to stay at home during extreme weather, but also because on average they use some of the time saved from commuting to make more trips per person sustainably on foot, even if not always for access purposes. Together these findings suggest suppressed demand for neighbourhoods designed to enable sustainable access to non-work destinations for both telecommuters and those who suffer reduced ability to link trips and participate in non-work activities during severe weather. Meanwhile, the novel approach to analysing broadband speed data offered further insights into the relationship between ICT, weather and travel risk. Internet activity increases in adverse weather, as measured during both the storm periods in the Reading and West Midlands case studies, and also more broadly during adverse weather as defined by a broad set of parameters. This demonstrates the potential for online access to replace travel and reduce travel risk during disruption, and should be considered in emergency planning / business continuity strategy, and when making investment decisions for ICT and transport infrastructure. |
| Exploitation Route | Further research into patterns of broadband (and mobile) services in all their spatial and temporal granularity could uncover additional patterns in the interaction between spatial and temporal quality of service levels and access. It may even be possible to predict the impact of weather on internet speed and availability, thus enabling improved messaging to the public around weather risks and their options for response in real time, including going 'online'. Even without further research, the policy implications are that proposals to improve the country's digital networks should explicitly consider temporal as well as spatial and demographic 'digital divides' and address these in an integrated fashion. In terms of travel choices and resilience, further research on walking patterns during severe weather would add to the adaptation side of the sustainability debate and identify potential co-benefits. Also, more attention to the accessibility of land uses and activities other than the home to work commute would be welcome. The implications for local governments emerging from this research are to support the development of walkable neighbourhoods with well-dispersed basic services and amenities that enable active travel choices for telecommuters, reduce the need for work-based trip chaining, and make communities more resilient to severe weather and other disruptions. Finally, policy-makers and employers in areas with high workplace population densities could agree contingency plans which promote remote working when it is the most resilient and least risky choice. |
| Sectors | Digital/Communication/Information Technologies (including Software),Government, Democracy and Justice,Transport,Other |
| Description | Following Storm Doris and a few subsequent, unplanned disruptions to the public transport network through Berkshire, Reading Buses came to a formal agreement with the main train operator, First Great Western, where the bus drivers know to accept rail tickets on the buses whenever they are informed of disruption to the relevant train services. The operators have also agreed reimbursement terms. Furthermore, my engagement activities and industry placement provided the opportunity to introduce the idea to transport practitioners that their role might include enabling and promoting resilient access behaviour. It is uncertain whether this has had an impact on how they conduct their day job, but I did have feedback at one workshop, for example, from a travel planner who said she never considered that contingency planning for disruption might be included in her discussions with employers. As mentioned in relation to my placement, my feedback on draft guidance on transport resilience, commissioned by the Local Government Technical Advisory Group, was incorporated into the version submitted to the Department for Transport, and may become nationally-issued guidance. Finally, through engagement activities and the industry placement, I have also been able to raise awareness among transport practitioners about how ICT networks operate and vary in space and time, and their relevance to transport modelling and measuring accessibility. |
| First Year Of Impact | 2018 |
| Sector | Government, Democracy and Justice,Transport |
| Impact Types | Policy & public services |
| Description | Article for professional magazine |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Wrote an article for the publication Data and Modelling 2019, which is published by Landor Links, who also publish Local Transport Today, and is distributed to those who attended the Modelling World conference (http://landor.co.uk/modellingworld/2019/home.php) as well as those on the conference's mailing list. The article's aim was to draw attention to the spatial and temporal variation in internet access and how that might be compared to or affect analyses of transport access. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
| URL | https://www.transportxtra.com/publications/local-transport-today/news/61344/data-and-modelling-2019 |
| Description | Professional magazine article |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Wrote an article about the importance of accessibility to non-work activities and amenities for the online professional magazine Transportxtra. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
| URL | https://www.transportxtra.com/publications/local-transport-today/news/65534/accessibility-is-about-m... |
| Description | Workshops and discussions at professional events. |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Engaged practitioners at a variety of professional conferences, exhibitions and forums on insights and findings related to the award topic. I ran a workshop at the Transport Practitioners' Meeting in July 2019 (http://transportconference.co.uk/2019tpm-programme/), which was attended by about 20 practitioners and generated substantial discussion. This format offered more interaction than the brief question and answer after giving a presentation and short paper at the previous year's event. I also briefly presented my area of expertise and then helped lead discussions at the Digital Transport Exchange in July 2018 (http://landor.co.uk/digitaltransport/2018/programme.php) and the Local Authority Hub at the Highways UK exhibition in November 2019 (https://www.highways-uk.com/content/huk/docs/huk19-main-event-guide.pdf p42). Other professional events to which I was invited and was able to discuss aspects of my work included the Data Discovery Centre stall at the Traffex exhibition in April 2019, at the West Midlands Open Data and Regional Analysts' Forums in May / June 2019, and at a conference and then board meeting of the Local Government Technical Advisers Group in May 2018 and June 2019. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018,2019 |
| Description | article for The Conversation |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Other audiences |
| Results and Impact | The Conversation asked me to write an article after seeing some press about my work that won the RTPI Early Career Researcher Award about Telecommuting and Other Trips. The article has had over 3000 views, 4 direct comments and an unknown number of tweets. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
| URL | https://theconversation.com/a-transition-to-working-from-home-wont-slash-emissions-unless-we-make-ca... |