Modelling flooding from multiple sources using coupled models and multi-scale high-resolution datasets
Lead Research Organisation:
Newcastle University
Department Name: Civil Engineering and Geosciences
Abstract
This PhD project will integrate a high-performance hydrodynamic flood modelling tool and a groundwater-surface water hydrological model using 3D digital geological models and very high resolution climate model outputs, to simulate flooding processes in small to medium size catchments in the UK. These modelling components are essential to better understand catchment responses to intense rainfall and quantify the future risk and impacts of flooding from multiple sources in the UK.
1) Literature review and research proposal
The student will first review literature in the relevant topics and then develop a more detailed research proposal and plan as part of the PhD progression procedure. This period will also include first assessments of climate/hydrology/hydrogeology data from a range of existing case study sites, to establish the scope of the modelling applications proposed in subsequent phases of work. Furthermore, an assessment/identification of which areas of the UK would benefit from multisource modelling will be conducted.
2) New catchment scale flood modelling tool
This study plans to use a new High-Performance Integrated hydrodynamic Modelling System (HiPIMS) (Liang and Smith, 2015) to simulate the catchment flooding processes following intense rainfall. This shock-capturing hydrodynamic modelling system will take the inputs from a new high-resolution gridded hourly rainfall dataset for the UK being developed under the CONVEX project and re-analysis driven outputs from the very high resolution convective-permitting climate model developed by Kendon et al. (2012; 2014) which simulates realistic hourly rainfall characteristics including extremes. This computationally efficient hydrodynamic model will transform intense rainfall into surface runoff flooding in small to medium size catchments in the UK. However, similar to most other hydrodynamic surface flow models, HiPIMS has limited capability in representing infiltration and subsurface flow, an important aspect of the rainfall-runoff processes. Therefore, HiPIMS will be improved in this WT to include a groundwater component to better represent infiltration and subsurface flow processes. To achieve this, the groundwater module from the hydrologic model system, Shetran, developed within the Newcastle Water Group (http://research.ncl.ac.uk/shetran/index.htm), will be used, together with a newly-developed capability to use 3D digital geological models for representation of hydrogeological environments. The Shetran groundwater component will be adapted and improved for coupling with HiPIMS to develop a new surface and subsurface hydrodynamic catchment model which will represent the current state-of-the-art in modelling catchment rainfall-runoff processes and hence provide a new generation tool for evaluate the risk of flooding from multiple sources in catchments.
3) Flood risk from intense rainfall in UK catchments
The new integrated modelling tool will be used to analyse the impacts of climate change on flooding for a selection of UK catchments representing different climate/hydrological/hydrogeological environments using climate scenario outputs from the very high resolution model of Kendon et al. (2014). A range of case study sites are already being investigated under current projects, providing initial process conceptualisation and data availability. Possible uncertainties of the modelling results will be analysed and quantified using a stochastic approach possible by using additional weather generator runs or resampling. Additional climate model simulations may also be used at this stage, if available, as many European modelling groups plan to run km-scale integrations over Europe in the next two years under the HELIX H2020 project. Due to the heavy computational demands of this approach, distributed computing resources including workflows developed specifically for cloud computing will be required to complete sufficient simulations to make robust risk assessments.
1) Literature review and research proposal
The student will first review literature in the relevant topics and then develop a more detailed research proposal and plan as part of the PhD progression procedure. This period will also include first assessments of climate/hydrology/hydrogeology data from a range of existing case study sites, to establish the scope of the modelling applications proposed in subsequent phases of work. Furthermore, an assessment/identification of which areas of the UK would benefit from multisource modelling will be conducted.
2) New catchment scale flood modelling tool
This study plans to use a new High-Performance Integrated hydrodynamic Modelling System (HiPIMS) (Liang and Smith, 2015) to simulate the catchment flooding processes following intense rainfall. This shock-capturing hydrodynamic modelling system will take the inputs from a new high-resolution gridded hourly rainfall dataset for the UK being developed under the CONVEX project and re-analysis driven outputs from the very high resolution convective-permitting climate model developed by Kendon et al. (2012; 2014) which simulates realistic hourly rainfall characteristics including extremes. This computationally efficient hydrodynamic model will transform intense rainfall into surface runoff flooding in small to medium size catchments in the UK. However, similar to most other hydrodynamic surface flow models, HiPIMS has limited capability in representing infiltration and subsurface flow, an important aspect of the rainfall-runoff processes. Therefore, HiPIMS will be improved in this WT to include a groundwater component to better represent infiltration and subsurface flow processes. To achieve this, the groundwater module from the hydrologic model system, Shetran, developed within the Newcastle Water Group (http://research.ncl.ac.uk/shetran/index.htm), will be used, together with a newly-developed capability to use 3D digital geological models for representation of hydrogeological environments. The Shetran groundwater component will be adapted and improved for coupling with HiPIMS to develop a new surface and subsurface hydrodynamic catchment model which will represent the current state-of-the-art in modelling catchment rainfall-runoff processes and hence provide a new generation tool for evaluate the risk of flooding from multiple sources in catchments.
3) Flood risk from intense rainfall in UK catchments
The new integrated modelling tool will be used to analyse the impacts of climate change on flooding for a selection of UK catchments representing different climate/hydrological/hydrogeological environments using climate scenario outputs from the very high resolution model of Kendon et al. (2014). A range of case study sites are already being investigated under current projects, providing initial process conceptualisation and data availability. Possible uncertainties of the modelling results will be analysed and quantified using a stochastic approach possible by using additional weather generator runs or resampling. Additional climate model simulations may also be used at this stage, if available, as many European modelling groups plan to run km-scale integrations over Europe in the next two years under the HELIX H2020 project. Due to the heavy computational demands of this approach, distributed computing resources including workflows developed specifically for cloud computing will be required to complete sufficient simulations to make robust risk assessments.
Organisations
People |
ORCID iD |
| Geoff Parkin (Primary Supervisor) | |
| Ben Smith (Student) |
Studentship Projects
| Project Reference | Relationship | Related To | Start | End | Student Name |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE/M009009/1 | 05/10/2015 | 31/12/2022 | |||
| 2220797 | Studentship | NE/M009009/1 | 01/10/2015 | 27/12/2018 | Ben Smith |