Potential pandemic viruses and their zoonotic reservoirs

Flu viruses aren't as structurally variable as previously thought. They evolve in a different way to 'Antigenic Drift', the progressive increase of random mutations, which is currently accepted by most of the field. Flu's Haemagglutinin (HA) protein contains certain Epitopes of Limited Variability (ELVs), areas of the protein to which antibodies can bind. There are few shapes that these ELVs can take; the same ELVs are shared by different strains and cycle over time. This is the process of evolution by 'Antigenic Thrift'. By determining the level of population immunity to a potentially pandemic virus, the pandemic risk can be ascertained. I.e. if immunity to a virus is low, spreading efficiently is more likely. I propose to (i) determine the level of human and animal population immunity to some bird and swine flu strains using serological techniques, (ii) identify and isolate ELVs that are shared between: human/bird and human/swine flu using molecular biological and bioinformatic techniques, (iii) predict which bird/swine flu strains have the most pandemic potential, (iv) produce a pandemic vaccine.