Optimising the surveillance and control of communicable diseases: the effects of population heterogeneity on transmission dynamics
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Oxford
Department Name: Interdisciplinary Bioscience DTP
Abstract
Outbreaks of infectious diseases in plant populations are responsible for devastating economic and environmental consequences. In many cases, detecting infection in a population soon after a pathogen has first invaded is crucial to the success of control methods. The design of effective surveillance strategies for the early detection of invasive plant pathogens is consequently a key challenge for global biosecurity. Unfortunately, monitoring programmes are often confounded by periods of asymptomatic infection, during which plants do not display visible symptoms. However, there is the potential to use 'sentinel' plants which display symptoms more quickly as early warning beacons. In this project, I will apply mathematical and computational techniques to determine scenarios under which sentinel-based surveillance strategies will provide a cost-effective approach to early detection monitoring, considering real-life plant pathogens as case studies.
Organisations
People |
ORCID iD |
| Gail Preston (Primary Supervisor) |
Studentship Projects
| Project Reference | Relationship | Related To | Start | End | Student Name |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BB/M011224/1 | 01/10/2015 | 31/03/2024 | |||
| 2270123 | Studentship | BB/M011224/1 | 01/10/2019 | 30/09/2023 |
| Description | We have demonstrated that both presymptomatic/asymptomatic transmission and age-dependent factors such as susceptibility to infection and social contact patterns can strongly influence the likelihood of observing local outbreaks of infectious diseases and the effectiveness of control measures. Our models provide a framework for assessing the impact of epidemic control measures in an age-structured setting. |
| Exploitation Route | Our results promote carefully considering the role of asymptomatic transmission and age-related factors when assessing epidemic outbreak risks, encouraging other epidemic modellers to account for these factors in subsequent research. Our research also provides a framework for assessing the risk of a local infectious disease outbreak in an age-structured setting which may be used and built on by other researchers. |
| Sectors | Healthcare |
| Description | 'Roots to Seeds' museum exhibition |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press) |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | Regional |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | I was involved with creating a museum exhibition called 'Roots to Seeds' - a collaboration between the Oxford Botanic Gardens and Arboretum, the Bodleian Libraries and the Department of Plant Sciences, celebrating 400 years of Oxford botany. The exhibition took us through the history of plant sciences at Oxford, with the final section focusing on looking to the future of plant sciences. For that section of the exhibition, I collaborated with other researchers from different disciplines to produce a short video about my DPhil project (specifically, the problems posed by plant pathogens and how maths could help us figure out how to improve current surveillance techniques for them) which played at the end of the exhibition. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| URL | https://visit.bodleian.ox.ac.uk/event/roots-to-seeds |