The Gender Impact of Welfare Reform since 2010

Universal Credit (UC) was a flagship policy of the 2010 Coalition Government, rolling six 'legacy' benefits into one monthly payment. Payments of UC are capped at two children in a family.
In 2015, Prime Minister David Cameron defended the Government's welfare reforms, stating that the previous system 'destroyed aspiration' and UC would 'ensure that it always pays to work' (Cameron, 2015). More than nine years and four parliamentary terms later, these policies have yet to be rolled out in full or as intended.
Early warning systems from welfare groups and NGOs have indicated unintended consequences. A report released by the Public Accounts Committee in 2018 concluded that UC is "causing unacceptable hardship and difficulties for many of the claimants it was designed to help". UN Rapporteur Philip Alston reported that claimants of UC feel forced to 'take inappropriate low-paid, temporary work just to avoid debilitating sanctions' (Alston, 2018).
For many women, childcare and other caring responsibilities are some of the biggest barriers they face when
considering returning to work or seeking to move to better jobs. The reality is that for low-income parents, gains from entering the labour market can be limited, offset by childcare costs and time restrictions that limit their job search area. Aspects of UC have been identified that make it harder for low-income parents to access childcare.

Research Questions:
Three distinct questions will be explored in order to gain understanding of the trade-offs women face as a result of Universal Credit and the two-child limit:
1) How has the UK Government's recent imposition of a two-child limit on Universal Credit and Working Tax Credit impacted on fertility?
2) How have recent UK welfare reforms impacted a) on the labour supply decisions of women and b) on job quality?
3) Is there any evidence to suggest that differential policy in Scotland, relative to the rest of the UK, (e.g. the Scottish Child Payment) is mitigating adverse impacts of the wider welfare reforms.

Research Methods:
Cutting-edge quasi-experimental methods such as difference-in- difference (DID) analysis will be used to identify the causal effects of the policy on outcomes for women and the key features of welfare reform policy that drive the policy's intended and unintended consequences. Findings are intended to contribute to the wider policy debate on welfare reform, and pinpoint specific evidence-based interventions for a live and developing policy over the following years.

Impact:
In addition to contributing to academic literature, the intention is to use this research to inform future policy. The work should provide insights into the extent of some unintended consequences of UC and the two-child limit. The aim is then to make inferences on how to mitigate problems and strengthen the intended consequences of the welfare reforms and to make recommendations aimed at improving outcomes during the gradual and phased switch to UC.