The application of epidemiological-economic models for policy guidance: the case of pertussis vaccination in South Africa

Pertussis is a highly contagious respiratory tract disease that affects people of all ages, however young unimmunised or partially immunised infants are the most vulnerable group with the highest rates of complications and death (>90%). There are an estimated 50 million cases of pertussis and 300 000 pertussis-related deaths per annum globally. Despite well-established vaccination programmes, pertussis persists as a major public health concern. A growing body of evidence recommends supplementing childhood vaccination with strategies such as targeted booster doses and maternal immunization in order to tackle this burden. However, minimal research has been conducted in low- and middle-income countries. Mathematical modelling provides a tool for policy makers and public health planners to predict the impact and cost-effectiveness of possible intervention strategies. While such models are often considered difficult to interpret for non-experts, there are novel approaches for communicating modelling processes and results which may improve the applicability and acceptability of modelling to inform real-world public health policy decisions.