How do periods of instability influence government's commitment to the national social protection schemes in sub-Saharan Africa?

The overarching purpose of this research project is to add to the growing knowledge base surrounding the implementation of social protection and how this interacts with, and is challenged by, the existing political and social structure. Specifically, this research aims to determine the extent of the influence of instability on an incumbent governing authority's commitment to developing a long-term social protection strategy and the effective implementation and entrenchment of programmes outlined in the strategy. This question is framed in the context of elite and political structures in sub-Saharan Africa, which will guide the analysis towards the consideration of how both political and non-political agents will influence the outcome. As a further dimension of analysis, the project aims to ascertain whether the relationship between instability and commitment to social protection differs across various political and social structures and affects policy persistence. Prior to this, a portion of the research will be focused on the definition of the concepts of instability and commitment to social protection and will examine the factors which may influence them, both generally and in terms of their significance.

Key Concepts and Literature:
The key concept examined in this proposal is social protection, defined widely as programmes to reduce poverty and vulnerability and to aid in enhancing their ability to manage the socio-economic risks associated with old-age, unemployment or general poverty-related issues. The discussion of how the development of these programmes in sub-Saharan Africa interacts with different political structures under conditions of instability will be guided by various theoretical frameworks, including political settlements theory and historical institutionalism. Such frameworks will serve as the basis for developing a theoretical model, which will subsequently inform the hypotheses and causal mechanisms examined in the quantitative and qualitative analysis. Mechanisms driving the effect of instability on social protection policies and continued commitment include the emergence of critical junctures and how it influences time horizons and ideology.

Methodology:
A sequential explanatory mixed methods design will be used to analyse the relationship between instability and commitment to social protection in the context of political and elite settlement structures in SSA. In short, the first stage entails the use of a quantitative method to examine possible relationships between observed and unobserved variables identified in the literature review. Primarily, this will aim to identify cause and effect linkages, both in terms of their direction and magnitude, and will involve close examination of the data and any emerging trends. At present, a structural equation model is proposed for this stage, as it will allow for the examination of multiple dependent variables and unobserved variables.
Subsequent work will be guided by the results of the first stage, where countries of interest will be identified by the statistical analysis. It is proposed that the countries selected on this basis will be the units of analysis for an intensive qualitative small sample study. The primary method of analysis in this component is process-tracing, which involves mapping out the evolution of actions and events to investigate and provide evidence of interactions between causal elements. Whilst it will involve the use of a variety of secondary resources, fieldwork will be undertaken in these countries in order to obtain first-hand accounts and evidence to solidify or counteract any hypotheses proposed.