Prioritizing forest restoration for nature and people

The 5th of June, 2021 will mark the start of the United Nations decade on ecosystem restoration (2021-2030) which aims to "prevent, halt and reverse the degradation of ecosystems worldwide" (UNEP and FAO, 2021). The persistence of biodiversity and ecosystem services depends not only on habitat protection, but also on large scale forest restoration. Restoration is considered to be key to mitigate biodiversity loss and access to ecosystem services such as water regulation and carbon sequestration (Possingham, Bode and Klein, 2015). National and regional restoration programs such as Brazil's Atlantic Forest Restoration Pact, have attracted both private and government interest for over a decade (Aronson and Alexander 2013), but the world has never seen such a strong government push towards large scale forest restoration projects.

While there are broad restoration prioritisations which guide spatial restoration, priorities based on biodiversity conservation, carbon sequestration, and minimizing costs. The scientific literature still lacks critical insights on how to guide decisions based on differential impacts of forest restoration projects within different regions. Yet the impact of restoration on people and the environment can vary widely based on their characteristics as well as the characteristics of the restoration initiative. This project uses operations research - advanced analytical methods that help make decisions better - to optimise where and how conservation practitioners should engage in habitat restoration. The optimisation will consider the likelihood of adoption, spread, impact and abandonment of restoration projects. It will build on the research and frameworks recently developed for area-based conservation initiatives (Mascia and Mills, 2018; Mills et al., 2019) to answer questions such as: Where and how should habitat restoration occur to maximise benefits to nature and people? What are the trade-offs associated to the different restoration scenarios/options available in an area? How can restoration projects by optimised at a site-specific scale?