Trade, Investment and Soft Power: Contextualising China's and Taiwan's Relations with the Visegrad 4

The aim of this project is to analyse the opportunities and constraints China's economic statecraft and public diplomacy create for Taiwan's diplomatic initiatives within the Visegrad 4 (V4) countries of Czechia, Slovakia, Hungary, and Poland. China's economic statecraft in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) is facilitated by the 16+1 (formerly 17+1) initiative, which has long been criticised for dividing the EU. Within this context, the focus on the V4 is significant for two reasons: (1) China's trade and investment flows are larger to the V4 than the rest of CEE, and (2) V4 countries are all EU member states. Czechia and Hungary are the main case studies, whilst Slovakia and Poland provide comparative perspectives. With Czechia being increasingly supportive of Taiwan, and Hungary being one of China's staunchest supporters in the EU, these two country cases highlight the diversity of relations between the V4, China and Taiwan, avoiding the perception of the region as a monolith.

The project aims to explain the fluctuations in Czech-Chinese and Czech-Taiwanese relations, including the diverging attitudes between Czech executive bodies on the one hand and legislators and the public on the other. Czech-Taiwanese relations date back to the collapse of the Soviet bloc when Taiwan tried to use its economic diplomacy to establish official ties with the new regimes. Once the CEE countries recognised the PRC instead of the ROC, Taiwan's economic diplomacy was replaced by public diplomacy, although the 2020 memoranda of understanding signed between Taiwanese and Czech business representatives may create new opportunities for Taiwan's economic initiatives in Czechia and broader CEE. Within this context, the project also analyses the development of Taiwan's diplomatic initiatives, considering the extent to which these were a response to China's increasing economic presence in CEE and the EU as a whole.

Whereas Czechia provides an insight into the opportunities China's increasingly assertive diplomacy creates for Taiwan, Hungary highlights the constraints Taiwan faces in a country run by an increasingly illiberal government that uses its relations with China as leverage against the EU. Although this may change amidst the emerging political divisions and increasing public dissatisfaction with the government's China policy, the project analyses whether the limitations in Hungarian-Taiwanese relations are caused by Chinese pressures or are self-imposed by the Hungarian government.

In terms of methodology, the first part of the research will involve a historical analysis of Czech-Chinese and Hungarian-Chinese relations under Presidents Hu Jintao and Xi Jinping, juxtaposed against the Czech-Taiwanese and Hungarian-Taiwanese relations under Presidents Chen Shui-bian, Ma Ying-jeou and Tsai Ing-wen, with the project being divided into pre-16+1 (2002-2012) and post-16+1 developments (2012 onwards). The second part of the research will involve an economic analysis of China's and Taiwan's trade and investment flows in both Czechia and Hungary, as well as the rest of the V4. The influence of China's and Taiwan's diplomatic initiatives on Czech and Hungarian policymakers will be analysed through interviews with representatives of the presidential office, governing coalition, and the opposition. Interviews with Czech-Chinese and Czech-Taiwanese, as well as Hungarian-Chinese and Hungarian-Taiwanese business chambers will also be conducted, and Czech and Hungarian media reports will be analysed in terms of their China/Taiwan-related content and links to Chinese/Taiwanese media outlets.