Conserving the African Wild Dog in a Changing Climate

Climate change has been established as a prominent threat to biodiversity, with observed impacts including alterations in species' distributions, phenology, and demography, and future impacts predicted to cause large scale species extinctions. The mitigation of these impacts has hence been identified as an international conservation priority, yet, there have been few attempts to identify specific management interventions to meet this goal. Of the existing recommendations for mitigation strategies, there is a focus on large-scale solutions such as the creation of protected areas, with limited recommendations for local conservation management of vulnerable species and habitats.

The African wild dog (Lycaon pictus, hereafter 'wild dog') is an endangered cooperatively-breeding carnivore, historically found throughout most of sub-Saharan Africa. Anthropogenic threats have caused a dramatic decline in wild dog geographic range and population size, with the species now persisting in an estimated 7% of its historic range. Recent research has shown that high ambient temperatures have multiple negative effects on wild dogs, including reduced hunting activity, lower reproductive success, and increased mortality. As the climate warms, it is predicted that these impacts will cause declines in wild dog populations, compounding existing threats and increasing the species' risk of extinction. Wild dogs appear to lack sufficient behavioural plasticity to adapt to rising temperatures, and there is little opportunity to track climatically suitable habitat through shifts in their current range due to vast habitat loss, fragmentation, and human activity. Targeted management interventions will therefore be essential to mitigate the impacts of climate change and ensure the species' survival. Wild dogs are important ecologically, with a role in structuring their ecosystems through predation, and economically, as a valuable species in wildlife tourism. Consequently, wild dog conservation benefits not only the highly endangered species itself, but extends to other taxa and human society.

I propose to use a combination of field-based and computational methods to assess how impacts of climate change on the African wild dog can be effectively mitigated. I will explore both local and range-wide intervention options to inform strategy for the conservation of the species in the face of this prevailing threat.