Development of combined transport network and epidemiological models for planning interventions

The recent Covid-19 pandemic has brought to light the need to understand the role of mobility and travel in the transmission of such diseases. In a current UKRI project TRACK, in which the proposed supervisors are investigators, the aim is to understand how transmission occurs on-board public transport. The proposed study will, on the other hand, aim to understand how travel patterns can contribute to social interactions, and thereby to the spread of such disease, particularly at the urban/regional level.

The objective will be, firstly, to make a deep theoretical connection between mathematical models used for representing dynamics in transport networks and travel behaviour, with the kinds of epidemiological models used to forecasts disease spread. This is expected to build on work of the supervisors on deterministic and stochastic compartmental models in transport, and their link to this similar class of model used in epidemiology. Both theoretical and computational properties of the combined model system will be explored. Strategies will be developed and tested for deterring 'risky' travel, building on a separate strand of past UKRI-funded work on optimal road pricing cordons and optimal network design. The models will be calibrated against available mobility and health data for urban regions. The models developed will allow urban/regional health and transport planning agencies to devise and test potential strategies ahead of time, and to investigate their influence on a variety of factors, including health, mobility and economic activity.