The future of private car ownership: who is breaking up with their car and why?

The research into the psychology of car dependency shows that travel habits are hard to change. Even when people state a desire to drive less - for example because of environmental concerns - they find it hard to change their behaviour. Many people feel, or indeed are, locked-in to system of a car ownership through a complex system of social, economic, built environment and structural factors. However, there are weak signals of change in this system with some individuals voluntarily choosing to not own a car, or to "shed" one or more cars from a multi-car household. If these behaviours are supported and amplified through policy rewards and disincentives, there could be a tipping point away from private car ownership towards a sustainable, low-carbon mobility system where active, public and shared forms of travel are the norm for the majority of urban dwellers.

My hypothesis is that this tipping point away from private car ownership could be achieved with policy instruments (sticks and carrots) to amplify emerging behaviours and practices relating to voluntary non-car ownership. The aim of my PhD research is to generate new knowledge relating to the social, economic and built environment factors that favour a shift towards voluntary non-car ownership. The objectives are to gain insights into voluntary non-car ownership attitudes and practices at an individual (micro), local-regional (meso) and national (macro) level. These insights will be used to develop and test a range of scenarios for the future of private car ownership.

My research will comprise four separate studies which each contribute new knowledge to the overarching research question. Study 1 (Dec 2022- July 2023) will be a systematic, transdisciplinary review of the existing research literature relating to voluntary non-car ownership. Study 2 (April 2023 - September 2023) will research policy-led action (UK and international) to constrain car ownership. This will involve a review of secondary data and primary qualitative data collection through a series of key stakeholder interviews. Study 3 (October 2023 - October 2024) will build on insights from Studies 1 and 2 to build a picture of voluntary non-car ownership through quantitative analysis of secondary UK data (census, National Travel Survey, Household Longitudinal Study, ONS/DfT sources). This will be complemented by primary qualitative data collection using mobility biographies to understand the motivation of individuals relinquishing private car ownership. The insights from the three studies will be used for Study 4 (October 2024 - July 2025) to develop future narrative scenarios for private car ownership and draw conclusions on the implications for transport policy and action. These outputs will be tested with the key stakeholders engaged in Study 2.

The new knowledge developed could be used to build the evidence base for local and national governments to strengthen policy interventions to reduce private car use and ownership in urban areas. This in turn would lead to lower carbon emissions, better air quality and public places more conducive to active travel and social interaction. The research findings could equally be used by community groups/activists to campaign, and innovate locally, for improved public transport, shared mobility and walking and cycling facilities to reduce car dependency.

Impact Summary

This proposal has been developed from the ground up to guarantee the highest level of impact. The two principal routes towards impact are via the graduates that we train and by the embedding of the research that is undertaken into commercial activity. The impact will have a significant commercial value through addressing skills requirements and providing technical solutions for the automotive industry - a key sector for the UK economy.

The graduates that emerge from our CDT (at least 84 people) will be transformative in two distinct ways. The first is a technical route and the second is cultural.

In a technical role, their deep subject matter expertise across all of the key topics needed as the industry transitions to a more sustainable future. This expertise is made much more accessible and applicable by their broad understanding of the engineering and commercial context in which they work. They will have all of the right competencies to ensure that they can achieve a very significant contribution to technologies and processes within the sector from the start of their careers, an impact that will grow over time. Importantly, this CDT is producing graduates in a highly skilled sector of the economy, leading to jobs that are £50,000 more productive per employee than average (i.e. more GVA). These graduates are in demand, as there are a lack of highly skilled engineers to undertake specialist automotive propulsion research and fill the estimated 5,000 job vacancies in the UK due to these skills shortages. Ultimately, the CDT will create a highly specialised and productive talent pipeline for the UK economy.

The route to impact through cultural change is perhaps of even more significance in the long term. Our cohort will be highly diverse, an outcome driven by our wide catchment in terms of academic background, giving them a 'diversity edge'. The cultural change that is enabled by this powerful cohort will have a profound impact, facilitating a move away from 'business as usual'.

The research outputs of the CDT will have impact in two important fields - the products produced and processes used within the indsutry. The academic team leading and operating this CDT have a long track record of generating impact through the application of their research outputs to industrially relevant problems. This understanding is embodied in the design of our CDT and has already begun in the definition of the training programmes and research themes that will meet the future needs of our industry and international partners. Exchange of people is the surest way to achieve lasting and deep exchange of expertise and ideas. The students will undertake placements at the collaborating companies and will lead to employment of the graduates in partner companies.

The CDT is an integral part of the IAAPS initiative. The IAAPS Business Case highlights the need to develop and train suitably skilled and qualified engineers in order to achieve, over the first five years of IAAPS' operations, an additional £70 million research and innovation expenditure, creating an additional turnover of £800 million for the automotive sector, £221 million in GVA and 1,900 new highly productive jobs.

The CDT is designed to deliver transformational impact for our industrial partners and the automotive sector in general. The impact is wider than this, since the products and services that our partners produce have a fundamental part to play in the way we organise our lives in a modern society. The impact on the developing world is even more profound. The rush to mobility across the developing world, the increasing spending power of a growing global middle class, the move to more urban living and the increasingly urgent threat of climate change combine to make the impact of the work we do directly relevant to more people than ever before. This CDT can help change the world by effecting the change that needs to happen in our industry.