An empirical model to predict geo-magnetic storms at Earth.

Predicting space weather has become an important research area today due to its severe effects on near-Earth space. CMEs are the major drivers of space weather. An Earth-directed CME with the southward magnetic field orientation (Bz) can cause geomagnetic storms on Earth. During my PhD , we propose to identify the orientation of Bz at L1 by developing an empirical relation by combining source region magnetic field observations with the in-situ magnetic field observations for the Earth-directed CMEs. To implement this, we aim to use solar surface magnetic field information from instruments SoHO-MDI, SDO-HMI, and in-situ magnetic field measurements in near-Earth environments from magnetometers onboard ACE, and WIND. We will also use GCS fitting for the CMEs observed in the coronagraph images from STEREO-SECCHI, SoHO-LASCO for estimating the better orientation of CME and hence the embedded flux rope just after eruption close to the Sun. Apart from these, we also plan to use PSP and Solar orbiter interplanetary magnetic field and solar wind observations to further improve the model. This could help in forecasting the strength of the geomagnetic storms on Earth and increase our understanding of space weather forecast.