Predicting species distributions for biodiversity renewal decisions. (Ref:4444)

To meet nature recovery targets there is a need to devise strategies for targeting conservation effort effectively. Typically, ecologists have used habitat suitability models to predict how species respond to changes in land-use, but species occurrence is affected not only by the suitability of habitat at that location, but also by the spatial configuration habitats. Species are more likely to survive in bigger, better and more connected habitats. For this reason, meta-population models are often used to assess how regional persistence is maintained by a balance between local extinctions and colonisations from surrounding habitats. However, such models are data hungry: one must verify the presence or absence of populations in every patch of habitat before predictions can be easily made. Despite the evident strengths and weaknesses of these two approaches, they have yet to be unified into a single framework. This PhD project will explore methods for doing so. Approaches for predicting how species respond to habitat creation and restoration are being developed and tested using field data on declining woodland bird species in south-west England, including Willow Tit (Poecile montanus). Results are being used by a range of conservation organisations to guide targeted biodiversity renewal actions.