Modelling determinants of fertility among UK-born ethnic minorities using multilevel simultaneous equations event history models and the parametric g-

With industrialisation, as women have started working and the concept of the nuclear family has been demolished, a low fertility rate has been a social risk in some developed countries. The UK is one of the countries that experience a declined fertility rate, however, there are certain ethnic groups that still have a high fertility rate in the UK. Some UK-born ethnic women, whose parents are from countries that have high fertility rates, have higher birth rates than native British women. Previous studies suggest that cultural and normative factors are the reasons for large families, whereas others address that the lack of education and employment prospects among ethnic minorities are the main factors; nonetheless, the reason for high fertility rates among certain ethnic groups is unclear. Most research about the fertility rate of ethnic minorities does not differentiate immigrants' descendants from immigrants when investigating determinants of birth rate. In addition, previous scholars have focused on the total fertility rate, utilising averages. Contrastingly, my research will consider fertility rate and their influencing factors on an individual level, considering UK-born ethnic minorities by parity.

Factors affecting fertility behaviours are complex and inter-dependent. Cultural and normative perspectives, which often are not adequately measured by survey data, and longitudinal trajectories in different life-domains - such as employment and partnership - could also have impacts on fertility patterns. My PhD research intends to make methodological but substantive contributions by comparing the performance of two different methods to account for both unobserved and time-varying confounders; Simultaneous Equation Event History Analysis and the Parametric g-formula. This study, hence, explores determinants of fertility among UK-born ethnic minority women by parity. The research question is, "Which factors cause high fertility rates among certain UK-born ethnic minority women?"

This study plans to utilise individual-level data from the UK Household Longitudinal Study - Understanding Society - which covers more than 50,000 individuals in the UK including various ethnic groups. Retrospective fertility, marital status and employment status were collected, and these are supplemented by prospective data on changes within the panel. The dataset also involves essential socio-demographic factors including education level, religious affiliation, and the countries of birth of the respondents and their parents. Therefore, this dataset will be helpful to understand the comprehensive impact of socio-economic and cultural-normative factors on the childbearing behaviour of UK-born ethnic minority women.



Training includes various areas such as theoretical background, review of literature, and research skills. These have been conducted (and will be conducting) through auditing some courses regarding the subject of human geography and advanced quantitative analysis from the University of St. Andrews, as well as taking doctoral training programmes at the SGSSS (Scottish Graduate School of Social Science). Additionally, there will be regular supervision to get advice on my research and discuss general matters considering undertaking PhD.