The Democratic Turnaround: Origins and Patterns of Averted Autocratization

Why and how do some countries avert ongoing democratic backsliding? While previous research has paid much attention to the decline of democracy in several countries worldwide, democratic systems in which induced democratic backsliding was halted remain understudied. My doctoral research seeks to address this gap by identifying and theorising on dynamics between political elites, pro-democratic behaviour of citizens, and economic conditions that lead to a recovery of democracy after a period of autocratization (i.e., a democratic turnaround). To confront my theoretical models with empirical data, I combine original and secondary data on democratic and economic development as well as survey-experimental and qualitative evidence from democracies in the Global South. First, building on an original dataset on political systems experiencing a democratic comeback and other central observables, I select cases for a small-n comparison concerning the origins and trajectories of averted autocratization. Second, leveraging factorial experiments, I elaborate on the role of opposition strategies and citizens' democratic commitment in electoral settings. Third, I examine the impact of socio-economic conditions on citizen mobilisation and the prospects of a pro-democratic turnaround employing longitudinal modelling. Besides theoretical and empirical contributions to research into democracy and democratic resilience, my study will yield implications for policymakers, pro-democratic activists, and civil society organisations.