Aerosol emissions from future generation aircraft and their impact on climate

Global aviation has grown rapidly over the last 50 years, with annual emission accelerating from growth rates of 2.2% during 1970-2012 to 5% during 2013-2018. While temporarily affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, existing forecasts predict a continuation of this growth trend. A significant proportion (~60%) of the aviation effect on climate is caused by non-CO2 effects, in particular contrails, aerosols, and NOx emissions. The most uncertain of these effects is from aerosol emissions (primarily soot and sulphate particles) and their role on influencing cloud formation. Despite significant recent progress in our understanding of the overall aviation climate impact, there are still no best estimates for the climate impact caused by aerosol-cloud interactions. This project aims to directly address this by providing robust estimates of this important effect for a variety of air traffic and aviation fuel scenarios.

The project will develop and use state-of-the-art models to quantify the full impact on climate of aviation emissions from current and future generation aircraft. While recognised as an important climate forcing term, aerosol-cloud interactions are currently not included in global assessments of the aviation impact on climate. Estimates for this important climate effect will be developed as part of this project. This will ensure that the full aviation climate impact is accounted for when designing the best pathways for achieving net-zero carbon emission aviation by 2050, an ambitious target recently set by the aviation industry.