ARCADIA: Adaptation and Resilience in Cities: Analysis and Decision making using Integrated Assessment
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Oxford
Department Name: Geography - SoGE
Abstract
Urban areas are concentrations of vulnerability to climate change. Examples of impacts of climate change in urban areas include excessive heat, water scarcity and flooding. Whilst it is impossible to attribute individual extreme events to climate change, recent events including the 2003 heat wave that struck Paris and other European cities, and hurricane Katrina in New Orleans have illustrated the potential for large scale weather-related disruption of urban function, from which it may take months or years to recover. In recognition of the significance of climate change in urban areas, from the points of view of both adaptation and mitigation, in 2005 the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research launched a new research programme on Engineering Urban Systems . Building on the previous success of the Tyndall Centre in interdisciplinary integrated assessment, the Tyndall Centre Cities Programme brought together research expertise from seven universities (four of which are represented in the ARCADIA project) and a high profile stakeholder group to develop an Urban Integrated Assessment Facility (UIAF) that simulates long term changes in urban areas and can be used as a platform for testing the effectiveness of adaptation and mitigation strategies. The ARCADIA project will launch an ambitious new phase of development of the Tyndall Centre UIAF in order to understand better the vulnerability and resilience of urban areas. The ARCADIA project is highly interdisciplinary and involves input from an influential group of stakeholders from business and local and central government, with interests in planning, infrastructure, the built environment and climate change adaptation and mitigation. This group will work with the research team to ensure that the project is orientated towards user needs. Indeed the first research task will involve close work with stakeholders to understand how the advance modelling tools being developed in the Tyndall Centre can best inform decision making. Task 2 will identify the various direct and indirect modes in which climate impacts disrupt urban function and will go on to examine potential adaptation mechanisms and barriers to adaptation. In Task 3 the Tyndall Centre will team up with the Climatic Research Unit at UEA and the Met Office Hadley Centre to develop new probabilistic scenarios for urban areas that are consistent with UKCIP08. Task 4 will model the relationship between climate impacts and the urban economy, in order to identify how the economy may be disrupted by climate change. By analysing change in the economy through time and interactions between economic sectors, we will understand better how the urban economy can be made more resilient. Task 5 will combine the economic model developed in Task 4 with a new model of the spatial planning of buildings and infrastructure in urban areas. As well as identifying concentrations of vulnerability, this will enable the simulation of potential redesign of the built environment under different scenarios of climate and other drivers such as employment and changes to the transport system.The final research task will, working with stakeholders, use the new understanding of the vulnerability of urban systems to analyse how adaptation of urban areas can enhance resilience over a range of timescales. The objective will be to make practical proposals for 'adaptation pathways' for cities over the 21st Century to respond strategically to the challenges of flooding, water scarcity and extremes of heat.
Publications
Jenkins K
(2017)
A Probabilistic Analysis of Surface Water Flood Risk in London
in Risk Analysis
Jenkins, K.
(2012)
A probabilistic risk based approach to addressing impacts of climate change on cities: The Tyndall Centre's Urban Integrated Assessment Framework
in UGEC Viewpoints
Walsh, CL
(2012)
A spatio-temporal modelling framework for the integrated assessment of cities
in None
Helfenstein J
(2022)
An approach for comparing agricultural development to societal visions.
in Agronomy for sustainable development
Holderness T
(2012)
An evaluation of thermal Earth observation for characterizing urban heatwave event dynamics using the urban heat island intensity metric
in International Journal of Remote Sensing
Jenkins, K
(2013)
ARCADIA Factsheet Series
Walsh, CL
(2013)
Assessing flood risk in London under climate and land use change
in None
Walsh CL
(2013)
Assessing flood risk in London under climate and land use change
Walsh C
(2011)
Assessment of climate change mitigation and adaptation in cities
in Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers - Urban Design and Planning
Heidrich O
(2013)
Assessment of the climate preparedness of 30 urban areas in the UK
in Climatic Change
Description | Urban areas are particularly vulnerable to economic and social impacts of climate change, such as floods, droughts and excessive heat, due to their high concentrations of people and assets. Moreover, the increasing temperatures due to global warming are exacerbate in cities due to the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect. In recent years cities globally have been developing strategies for responding to the risks of climate change. However, they often lack the evidence needed to make the case for and prioritise adaptation actions. The ARCADIA project has developed a new system of models for analysing climate risks and assessing the performance of options for adapting to climate change. We have used London as a case study and worked with stakeholders to ensure that the analysis is relevant to the climate risks that they face. The ARCADIA project has: 1. Reviewed adaptation governance arrangements in London, in order to understand the decision making context. 2. Developed a coupled system of models for analysing climate risks at a city scale. The Urban Integrated Assessment Facility (UIAF) incorporates (i) A probabilistic model of climate change in cities, which includes the effects of waste heat and urban land cover on temperatures; (ii) An assessment of the direct impacts of extreme heat and flooding on people, buildings and infrastructure; and (iii) An assessment of the potentially disruptive indirect effects of climatic extremes on the urban economy. 3. Tested the potential effectiveness of adaptation measures to reduce climate risks to people, buildings, infrastructure and the economy. This modelling arrangement has enabled integrative analysis of the relationships between climate, the built environment, infrastructure systems, the urban economy and climate. The analysis is novel in a number of important respects: 1. A Spatial Weather Generator has been developed that provides time series of weather variables at a 5 km and daily and hourly resolution and includes spatial correlation of heat and rainfall. The Weather Generator is compatible with, and a valuable addition to, the UKCP09 climate scenarios. 2. A probabilistic methodology has been used to generate risk estimates that incorporate the effects of uncertainties in climate and vulnerability. Whilst most urban studies have focussed upon climate impacts, we are now able to generate genuine probabilistic estimates of climate risks. 3. A complete model of the urban transport network has been used to estimate the potential disruptive effect of climate impacts on transport infrastructure, for example due to flooding or rail buckling in excessive heat. The transport model covers public and private transport modes. A dynamic model of demand, service quality and switching between transport modes has been implemented to simulate the effects of transport disruptions on passenger flows. 4. A new model of future land use change, extending to the edge of the commuter belt around London, has been used to assess potential changes in vulnerability to climate change. Driven by changes in population and employment, the land use model provides an indication of the spatial distribution of future employment (by industrial sector) and population (by socio-economic class) within London. 5. A novel input-output representation has been used to represent the effects of climate related disasters on the economy, and subsequent economic recovery from those disasters. The model represents the effects of disruption to supply chains and consumer demand that would result from a very severe event such as a widespread flood. |
Exploitation Route | During the research programme we have held meetings and workshop with decision-makers in London to promote uptake of the research. Further interactions with stakeholders and researchers in related EPSRC projects have been facilitated by the Adaptation and Resilience to a Changing Climate Coordination Network http://www.arcc-cn.org.uk/. The results help highlight potential benefits of adaptation, to a range of weather related impacts, to help guide decision making across a range of agencies. Risk based information on the potential economic and social impacts of surface water flooding, and assessments of the effectiveness of adaptation measures, will be highly relevant if policy makers are to address concerns about the impact of such flooding in the longer-term, and strive to implement more effective and efficient adaptation measures. This work will be of interest to the on-going DrainLondon project being led by the GLA. The framework enables the exploration of a range of climate and socio-economic scenarios and their implications, providing a whole-system approach to assessing adaptation strategies to enhance future urban sustainability. The framework provides decision support tools for adaptation of urban areas, and demonstrates how these tools can be used to develop strategies for transitions to resilience at a city scale. The framework has been developed for London but has the potential to be applied to other cities. The method allows for continued investigation of different scenarios and adaptation pathways to be explored. Through future collaboration updated and more detailed data can be incorporated to extend and deepen the analysis conducted. |
Sectors | Communities and Social Services/Policy Environment Transport |
URL | http://www.arcc-network.org.uk/arcadia/ |
Description | Research has been cited, and continues to be cited, in numerous government reports and reviews; evidence has been provided to government committees; work continues to be presented to stakeholders to share information and inform decision making, for example providing data for those involved in neighbourhood planning; and factsheets and published articles have been used to provide information to academic and non-academic audiences. |
First Year Of Impact | 2012 |
Sector | Construction,Environment |
Impact Types | Societal Economic Policy & public services |
Description | Citation in CCRA 2017: Chapter 5 People and the built environment |
Geographic Reach | National |
Policy Influence Type | Citation in other policy documents |
URL | https://www.theccc.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/UK-CCRA-2017-Chapter-5-People-and-the-built-env... |
Description | Citation in Climate UK, Summary of Climate Change Risks for London |
Geographic Reach | Local/Municipal/Regional |
Policy Influence Type | Citation in other policy documents |
Description | Citation in London Climate Change Adaptation Strategy |
Geographic Reach | Local/Municipal/Regional |
Policy Influence Type | Citation in other policy documents |
Description | Citation in final report of the Heat Thresholds Project |
Geographic Reach | Local/Municipal/Regional |
Policy Influence Type | Citation in other policy documents |
Description | Cittaion in Adaptation Sub-Committee Progress Report |
Geographic Reach | Local/Municipal/Regional |
Policy Influence Type | Citation in other policy documents |
Description | Cambridge involvement in ToPDAd FP7 project |
Amount | € 4,500,000 (EUR) |
Funding ID | 308620 |
Organisation | European Commission |
Department | Seventh Framework Programme (FP7) |
Sector | Public |
Country | European Union (EU) |
Start | 09/2012 |
End | 09/2015 |
Description | EPSRC Impact Acceleration Account |
Amount | £20,287 (GBP) |
Funding ID | EP/K503769/1 |
Organisation | Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 03/2016 |
End | 03/2017 |
Description | EU FP7 ENHANCE project |
Amount | £121,499 (GBP) |
Funding ID | AFRXUE00 |
Organisation | European Commission |
Sector | Public |
Country | European Union (EU) |
Start | 03/2013 |
End | 12/2017 |
Description | Enhancing the impact of the Infrastructure Transitions Research Consortium (ITRC) |
Amount | £10,000 (GBP) |
Funding ID | EP/I50107X/1 |
Organisation | Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 07/2012 |
End | 03/2013 |
Title | ARCADIA Impact Model |
Description | As part of the EPSRC funded ARCADIA project a Climate Impact Assessment and Adaptation Module was developed to map spatial patterns of risk, provide information on the probabilities and characteristics of extreme events, related impacts, and implications for adaptation policies. Outputs include: - Probabilities and characteristics of high temperatures, heatwaves, and surface water flooding events, based on the exceedance of user defined thresholds. - Various summary statistics for annual heat related mortality - Percentage of residents at risk from residential overheating discomfort by house types across Greater London and the surrounding region. - Maps of residential overheating risk and mortality risk for Greater London and the surrounding region - Estimates of residential property damage due to surface water flooding - Maps of surface water flood risk and residential property damage estimates - Estimates of the number of days when rail buckles could occur and associated economic impacts - Benefits of different impact specific adaptation options in terms of reduced risks and impacts - Analysis of different adaptation pathways for risk heat and surface water flood risk reduction In the model hazards are defined based on specific temperature and precipitation thresholds for each impact, which can be set in the user interface. These thresholds can be adjusted to represent and assess various impact specific adaptation options, and have more recently been updated to support the analysis of different adaptation pathways. The user can specify a range of different outputs and formats. For example, spatial mapping of impacts can highlight specific populations and assets at risk, and highlight hotspots which will be vulnerable to a range of impacts. |
Type Of Material | Computer model/algorithm |
Year Produced | 2016 |
Provided To Others? | Yes |
Impact | The outputs have been used to support a wide range of publications and reports which have been cited in government reports such as the CCRA 2017. Follow on work through an EPSRC funded IAA has led to the further dissemination of the outputs and renewed interest in the uptake of outputs, with the model code and documentation due to be made freely available online shortly. |
Title | ARCADIA Impact data and GIS maps |
Description | ARCADIA Impact data and GIS maps |
Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
Year Produced | 2017 |
Provided To Others? | Yes |
Impact | One impact of this has been the use of heat vulnerability index maps generated in the ARCADIA project as part of the neighbourhood plan evidence base for Grove Park, Lewisham, Greater London. This was used in relation to policies on building design to account for climate change, as a way of evidencing that Grove Park is one of the high risk wards in Lewisham. |
URL | http://oxforduni.maps.arcgis.com |
Title | ARCADIA impact code |
Description | This allows long term availability and archival of the code; the ability for users to download and freely use the code; and for continuing development and updates by others in the future |
Type Of Material | Computer model/algorithm |
Year Produced | 2017 |
Provided To Others? | Yes |
Impact | It allows the continued development and use of the code by others working on related projects in the future. |
URL | https://gitlab.ouce.ox.ac.uk/eci/arcadia |
Description | Collaboration on impacts of heat for thermal discomfort on the London Underground. |
Organisation | Transport for London |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Public |
PI Contribution | The ARCADIA team used outputs from the spatial urban Weather Generator to provide a risk based analysis of the future number of days when passengers travelling on sections of the Tube could be subjected to thermal discomfort under future scenarios of climate change, and the potential number of passengers dissatisfied. |
Collaborator Contribution | LU provided platform temperature sensor data which could be used to infer external to internal temperatures, as well as outputs from a passenger thermal comfort model. |
Impact | Jenkins, K., Gilsby, M., Hall, J., Glenis, V., Kilsby, C. (2014) Implications of climate change for thermal discomfort on underground railways. Transportation Research Part D. Transport and Environment. 30: 1-9. DOI: 10.1016/j.trd.2014.05.002. |
Start Year | 2013 |
Description | Collaboration on the implication of climate change for future surface water flood risk, impacts, and options for adaptation. |
Organisation | Greater London Authority (GLA) |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Public |
PI Contribution | Collaboration on the implication of climate change for future surface water flood risk and impacts, and options for adaptation. The ARCADIA team have used these maps to assess future flood risk, economic impacts, and options for adaptation, based on outputs from the spatial urban Weather Generator. |
Collaborator Contribution | The GLA provided Drain London surface water flood risk maps. |
Impact | No impact yet |
Start Year | 2013 |
Description | Interaction with the London Climate Change Partnership |
Organisation | London Climate Change Partnership |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Learned Society |
PI Contribution | When contacted we have provided guidance on the types and formats of data that can be provided as outputs from ARCADIA and how this could contribute to proposed outputs planned by the LCCP. Where required I have undertaken additional model runs to provide data, such as extra runs to provide summary data on the average number of days in London when heatwaves would occur for a range of different heatwave definitions used by policy makers. |
Collaborator Contribution | The partnership has provided us with guidance on the most policy relevant outputs and formats from the ARCADIA impact model and helped to steer and define specific outputs to allow then to be utilised in reports, enhance their dissemination to a wider range of stakeholders, and subsequently enhance overall impact of the project. |
Impact | Interaction with the London Climate Change Partnership led to the identification of useful metrics from the ARCADIA impact model in terms of summary statistics for weather extremes. The model code was updated to provide requested summary data to help populate a table that was being compiled on London's climate impacts - namely heatwaves and heavy precipitation events. The LCCP will use this information to help inform policy documents including the London Environment Strategy and Adverse Weather Framework. |
Start Year | 2017 |
Description | ARCADIA factsheet series |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | Provided concise and key information to non-academic audience Increase in requests for further information on the project |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2014 |
URL | http://www.arcc-network.org.uk/wordpress/wp-content/pdfs/Arcadia_factsheets.pdf |
Description | ARCADIA stakeholder meeting (London) |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Local |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | Talks and presentations sparked questions and discussion. It highlighted r3esearch which could be used to inform policy and further areas of research and use for the models were identified. Stakeholders asked for a series of factsheets which were generated. Follow up meetings were proposed with the GLA and DrainLondon to look at surface water flood risk. Links to the London climate change Partnership were made. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2013 |
Description | ARCC ACN Blog post on the win-win offer for city scale adaptation |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | Blog post to highlight findings from ARCADIA and publiicise through the ARCC webiste. This blog is the place to discover some of the background to our ARCC activities, and where adaptation experts from around the network and beyond share their work and thoughts. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2015 |
URL | http://www.arcc-network.org.uk/list/blog/page/2/ |
Description | ARCC WEBINAR |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press) |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Helping researchers to enhance uptake & use of built environment models. This included a case study on the ARCADIA project and the impact model. It was geared towards researchers with an interest in the built environment who are involved in the development, use, or management of projects using built environment models and tools, and who have an interest in enhancing model uptake and usability |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
URL | http://www.arcc-network.org.uk/enhancing-impact/integrating-built-environment-models-into-geospatial... |
Description | Greater London Authority / Environment Agency: Supporting stakeholders from the GLA and EA in developing adaptation pathways to increased heat risk and drought in London. |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | Yes |
Geographic Reach | Local |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | Sharing of knowledge and input to modelling activities is helping to guide and support stakeholders from the GLA and EA in developing adaptation pathways in response to increased heat risk and drought in London. Adaptation pathways are being developed, modelled and tested based on information, needs, and criteria of policy makers. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity |
Description | Involvement in London Climate Change Partnership Heat Risk Group |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | Involvement in the London Climate Change Partnership Heat risk group to disseminate the outputs of ARCADIA and follow on work. The group acts as a hub for knowledge exchange between organisations working on the various aspects of planning for heatwaves and responding to longer term overheating risk. Tackling: |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2013,2014,2015,2016 |
URL | http://climatelondon.org.uk/projects/heat-risk-to-london/ |
Description | Participation in workshop on adaptation pathways |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Participated in a workshop on 'Managing risk despite uncertainty: adaptation pathways' as part of the RAMSES project. The aim was to provide feedback and suggestions for the development of guidlines for supporting the use of an adaptation pathways approach. Resulted in the sharing of ideas and dissemination of related research papers as well as wider discussion on future possible research proposals. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2016 |
Description | Presentation: Core Cities stakeholder event on Linking Research to Practice |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Presented work from ARCADIA at the ClimateReady: Climate Resilient Cities. Core Cities stakeholder event on Linking Research to Practice, Aston University, Birmingham. November 22, 2012. The key impact was to engage with different stakeholders to highlight what research outputs were avaliable and highlight how they could be used to enhance uptake and impact. This spraked debate on the use of different modelling tools and ways to overcome certain barriers to their use, as well as follow up questions on the research and requests for information. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2012 |
Description | Presentation: Planet Under Pressure Conference |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Industry/Business |
Results and Impact | Presentation and panel discussion in session on Urbanisation for a Sustainable Future. Planet Under Pressure. London. March 27, 2012. The presentation reached an interbnational audience and resulted in requests for further information and journal articles. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2012 |
URL | http://www.icsu.org/events/interdisciplinary-body-events/planet-under-presure-conference |
Description | Presentation: UK Met Office |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Local |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Presentation on 'Heat Risk Assessment in London' to the climate risk group at the Met Office. The event focused on heat risk and allowed for ideas and methodologies to be shared. Main outcomes were the validation of proposed methods and future collaboration in terms of sharing ideas and links to data. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2012 |
Description | Press release on heat risk in London |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
Results and Impact | Sparked wider interest in the ARCADIA project, requests for information, copies of journal papers, and contributions to news websites and magazines reporting on the press release. Increased requests for information and copies of journal papers. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2014 |
URL | http://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2014-04-15-future-heat-waves-pose-risk-population-greater-london |
Description | Workshop at Royal Meteorological Society Annual conference 2017 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | The workshop brought together professionals from across the weather and climate research, industry, policy communities to think about and inform the role of climate derived data and decision support tools for corporate climate risk disclosure. Participants were briefed on three research tools focused on modelling and understanding climate risks to urban systems, including ARCADIA |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
URL | http://www.arcc-network.org.uk/enhancing-impact/integrating-built-environment-models-into-geospatial... |