Uncertainty reduction in Models For Understanding deveLopment Applications (UMFULA)
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Oxford
Department Name: Geography - SoGE
Abstract
Abstracts are not currently available in GtR for all funded research. This is normally because the abstract was not required at the time of proposal submission, but may be because it included sensitive information such as personal details.
Planned Impact
Who might benefit from our research? Case study participants: Rufiji river basin: the government River Basin Water Office and the public-private partnership Southern Agricultural Growth Corridor of Tanzania; southern Malawi: Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation and Water Resources, Chikwawa, Nsanje and Thoyolo District Assemblies. Case study outputs will benefit multilateral development banks and the southern African Climate Resilient Infrastructure Facility-CRIDF, who advise on infrastructural development. National and regional decision-makers in C&SA and sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) including Southern African Development Community, WATERNET, CRIDF. Programmes concerned with climate services, e.g. Global Framework for Climate Services, CCAFS, IRI, CLIVAR, ESPA, CARIAA ASSAR. Met Services in Malawi, Mozambique, South Africa and Tanzania. Universities of Zambia and Yaounde. African citizens vulnerable to climate related risks, or reliant on infrastructure/resources that may be affected by climate change (now-40 years on).
How might they benefit from our research? Through deep engagement, national and local government and private sector stakeholders in both Malawi and Tanzania will be enabled to drive a process of improved use of climate services in decision-making processes. This is critical in both case study contexts which have been selected based on the climate risk to water and agriculture infrastructure and the implications it has for economic development. The process will be supported by the Met Services whose capacity will be built to produce country-specific contextualized projections based on the outputs of climate models given their responsibility in country to do so. Active engagement of Met Services within the case study co-production will also build partnerships that extend beyond the project lifetime and can inform on-going country policy processes: for example the development of the National Adaptation Plans. The ultimate aim is that improved use of climate services in decision-making benefits African citizens, not only in Malawi and Tanzania but also further afield, through the proactive communication of robust theoretical and applied findings to decision-makers across C&SA and further disseminated for use throughout SSA. By engaging with major initiatives such as GFCS (which is piloting programmes in both case study countries) we will have outreach and potential impact well beyond the two case studies. Univ Zambia & Yaounde and African Met Services will participate in a 'big science' project involving state-of-the-art high resolution models.
As a team we have a strong track record of applied research and proven impact in climate science and adaptation across Africa. Our approach includes
Co-production of knowledge and stakeholder-driven deliberative processes as the key methodology in the case studies; in which case study participants are engaged throughout the process and have co-ownership of the process and, by definition, the findings will be targeted to be of direct applicability and achieve maximum development impact.
Embedding impact in our management structures to maximize impact over the lifetime of the project and ensure post-project sustainability
1) Impact sub-group led by KULIMA
2) Advisory Panel, high level strategic guidance, through bi-annual TCs with representation from key regional organisations, public and private sector, donors and multi-laterals (eg agreed participation of World Bank staff)
A proactive approach to collaboration with other RPCs and the CCKE, eg invitation to sit on panels to maximise synergistic findings and outreach opportunities
Seizing opportunities for development of African capacity through providing bursaries to students in C&SA countries, making it a policy for senior team members and PDRAs to give guest lectures/research training sessions during C&SA visits (at university and other organisations eg Government) and offer some remote research co-supervision.
How might they benefit from our research? Through deep engagement, national and local government and private sector stakeholders in both Malawi and Tanzania will be enabled to drive a process of improved use of climate services in decision-making processes. This is critical in both case study contexts which have been selected based on the climate risk to water and agriculture infrastructure and the implications it has for economic development. The process will be supported by the Met Services whose capacity will be built to produce country-specific contextualized projections based on the outputs of climate models given their responsibility in country to do so. Active engagement of Met Services within the case study co-production will also build partnerships that extend beyond the project lifetime and can inform on-going country policy processes: for example the development of the National Adaptation Plans. The ultimate aim is that improved use of climate services in decision-making benefits African citizens, not only in Malawi and Tanzania but also further afield, through the proactive communication of robust theoretical and applied findings to decision-makers across C&SA and further disseminated for use throughout SSA. By engaging with major initiatives such as GFCS (which is piloting programmes in both case study countries) we will have outreach and potential impact well beyond the two case studies. Univ Zambia & Yaounde and African Met Services will participate in a 'big science' project involving state-of-the-art high resolution models.
As a team we have a strong track record of applied research and proven impact in climate science and adaptation across Africa. Our approach includes
Co-production of knowledge and stakeholder-driven deliberative processes as the key methodology in the case studies; in which case study participants are engaged throughout the process and have co-ownership of the process and, by definition, the findings will be targeted to be of direct applicability and achieve maximum development impact.
Embedding impact in our management structures to maximize impact over the lifetime of the project and ensure post-project sustainability
1) Impact sub-group led by KULIMA
2) Advisory Panel, high level strategic guidance, through bi-annual TCs with representation from key regional organisations, public and private sector, donors and multi-laterals (eg agreed participation of World Bank staff)
A proactive approach to collaboration with other RPCs and the CCKE, eg invitation to sit on panels to maximise synergistic findings and outreach opportunities
Seizing opportunities for development of African capacity through providing bursaries to students in C&SA countries, making it a policy for senior team members and PDRAs to give guest lectures/research training sessions during C&SA visits (at university and other organisations eg Government) and offer some remote research co-supervision.
Organisations
Publications
Taguela T
(2022)
Rainfall in uncoupled and coupled versions of the Met Office Unified Model over Central Africa: Investigation of processes during the September-November rainy season
in International Journal of Climatology
Spavins-Hicks Z
(2021)
The Limpopo Low-Level Jet: Mean Climatology and Role in Water Vapor Transport
in Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
Munday C
(2021)
African Low-Level Jets and Their Importance for Water Vapor Transport and Rainfall
in Geophysical Research Letters
Mahony J
(2020)
The precipitation patterns and atmospheric dynamics of the Serengeti National Park
in International Journal of Climatology
Howard E
(2020)
Tracing Future Spring and Summer Drying in Southern Africa to Tropical Lows and the Congo Air Boundary
in Journal of Climate
Desbiolles F
(2020)
Role of ocean mesoscale structures in shaping the Angola-Low pressure system and the southern Africa rainfall
in Climate Dynamics
Washington R
(2019)
Controls on the Diversity in Climate Model Projections of Early Summer Drying over Southern Africa
in Journal of Climate
Howard E
(2019)
Tropical Lows in Southern Africa: Tracks, Rainfall Contributions, and the Role of ENSO
in Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
Description | We have analysed a suite of models from the CMIP5 data set as well as a bespoke convection permitting model from the Met Office. By analysing the features of the circulation responsible for rainfall in reanalyses data sets, we have understood their constraints and behaviour and then applied this understanding to the coupled climate models of CMIP5. Features include water vapour transport, tropical lows, the Angola Low, the Congo Air Boundary and cloud bands. We have been able to constrain the model ensemble and reduce the model future climate uncertainty. |
Exploitation Route | Climate change impacts benefit from a reduced, evaluated and constrained model ensemble of future climate. |
Sectors | Aerospace, Defence and Marine,Agriculture, Food and Drink,Education,Environment,Government, Democracy and Justice |
URL | https://africanclimateoxford.net/ |
Description | BBC awards evening on climate change in London and accompanying article: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-50726701 |
First Year Of Impact | 2019 |
Sector | Agriculture, Food and Drink,Government, Democracy and Justice |
Impact Types | Societal |