Uncertainty in Aspirations
Lead Research Organisation:
University College London
Department Name: Quantitative Social Science
Abstract
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Organisations
Publications
Gutman L
(2018)
Aiming high, aiming low, not knowing where to go: Career aspirations and later outcomes of adolescents with special educational needs
in International Journal of Educational Research
Gutman L
(2012)
Correlates and consequences of uncertainty in career aspirations: Gender differences among adolescents in England
in Journal of Vocational Behavior
Gutman LM
(2018)
Emotional engagement, educational aspirations, and their association during secondary school.
in Journal of adolescence
Gutman LM
(2012)
Uncertain aspirations for continuing in education: antecedents and associated outcomes.
in Developmental psychology
Sabates R
(2017)
Is there a wage penalty associated with a degree of indecision in career aspirations?
in Longitudinal and Life Course Studies
Schoon I
(2016)
Diverse pathways in becoming an adult: The role of structure, agency and context
in Research in Social Stratification and Mobility
Schoon I
(2012)
Planning for the Future in Times of Social Change
in Child Development Perspectives
Schoon I
(2017)
A socio-ecological model of agency: The role of psycho-social and socioeconomic resources in shaping education and employment transitions in England
in Longitudinal and Life Course Studies
Schoon I
(2012)
Is uncertainty bad for you? It depends .
in New directions for youth development
| Description | Findings indicate that the characteristics of young people who reported uncertain aspirations were similar across the two cohorts. Uncertainty was associated with growing up in a relatively disadvantaged family, with parents who have low educational expectations for their children, and having low academic attainment, low school motivation and lack of belief in one's own ability in both the BCS-70 and LSYPE (Gutman, Sabates & Schoon, 2014;Gutman & Schoon, 2013; Gutman, Schoon, & Sabates, 2012). Drawing upon the LSYPE, a pathway model examining the mediators and moderators of uncertain aspirations was tested. For educational uncertainty, the relationship linking socioeconomic status to uncertain aspirations was mediated through parents' educational expectations and the relationship linking academic performance to uncertain aspirations was mediated through parents' educational expectations and adolescents' self-perceived ability (Gutman, Schoon & Sabates, 2012; Sabates, 2011). For career uncertainty, uncertain career aspirations significantly mediated the relationship between socioeconomic status and prior achievement and later educational outcomes (Gutman & Schoon, 2013; Schoon, 2012). In terms of gender and ethnic differences, males reported greater educational and career uncertainty than females in both the BCS-70 and LSYPE (Gutman, Sabates & Schoon, 2014; Schoon, 2012). In the LSYPE, ethnic minorities were less likely to report uncertainty than white young people (Gutman & Schoon, 2013). In the LSYPE, the consequences of educational uncertainty were worse for males than females (Gutman, Schoon & Sabates, 2012; Sabates, 2011), but there were no gender differences in the consequences of uncertain career aspirations (Gutman & Schoon, 2013;Schoon, 2012). In the LSYPE, school engagement was a significant factor in reducing the likelihood of being uncertain about continuing in education from ages 14 to 16, showing stronger effects for ethnic minority and male adolescents (Gutman, Schoon, & Sabates, 2012). In the BCS-70, young people who held uncertain educational and/or career aspirations at age 16 had lower academic achievement and a greater likelihood of not being in education, employment or training (NEET) compared to young people who had certain, high aspirations (Gutman, Sabates & Schoon, 2014). Uncertain career aspirations were also associated with lower wages at age 34 (Gutman, Sabates, & Schoon, 2014). In the LSYPE, the consequences of uncertain educational and career aspirations were mixed. Young people who were uncertain about continuing in education at age 15 had lower achievement at age 16 and a greater likelihood of not being enrolled in education at age 18 (Gutman, Schoon & Sabates, 2012; Sabates, 2011). In contrast, when young people were motivated in school, had high perceptions of their academic ability, had parents with high educational expectations for them and received useful career advice, uncertainty in career aspirations was associated with higher academic performance at age 16 and a greater likelihood of educational enrolment at age 18 (Gutman & Schoon, 2013; Schoon, 2012). |
| Exploitation Route | We anticipate that our project on uncertain aspirations will continue to have an impact both in academic and policy spheres. In the scientific community, we will present our findings at future conferences such as AERA, SRA and an international conference on 'Youth success and adaptation in times of social change' in Jena, Germany (invited contribution) JENA. We are also completing a manuscript which we will submit to a peer-reviewed journal examining the moderating role of ethnicity in a developmental pathway model of career uncertainty. In terms of economic and societal impacts, we are discussing our findings with policy analysts at the DfE including Helen Wood who is the Principal Research Officer in the Longitudinal Surveys Team and Richard White who is the Principal Research Officer in Families & Young People Research Team, and will keep them abreast of our future work on uncertain aspirations. |
| Sectors | Education |
| URL | https://www.education.gov.uk/ilsype/workspaces/public/wiki/Publications |
| Description | Our work has been influential for academics in the field of education and psychology and for developmental scientists, especially those interested in the study of adolescent development. Our findings have already been cited in over 200 publications, including peer-reviewed journals and policy reports. Our research has contributed to discussions involving educational policy and career education, and to a research report which discuss the implications of aspirations for policy (e.g., Wong, 2013; Mann, Masey, Glover, Kashefpadkel, 2013; Baird, 2013). |
| First Year Of Impact | 2013 |
| Sector | Communities and Social Services/Policy,Education,Government, Democracy and Justice |
| Impact Types | Economic |
| Description | Blog at Education and Employers |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Industry/Business |
| Results and Impact | A blog on our research on the Education and Employers Taskforce website |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2015 |
| URL | http://www.educationandemployers.org/research/uncertainty-in-educational-and-career-aspirations-gend... |
| Description | Invited presentation on 'why do some young people defy the odds' at a Department for Education Research Symposium on "School to work transitions in a changing labour market: Implications for schools and colleges", London, Department for Education |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | About 45 policy makers and civil servants from the Department of Education and Department of Work and Pension attended this event which was organised in collaboration with the Education and Employers Foundation. the presentation sparked questions regarding the support needed for young people not going the university to enable a smooth and viable career path. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
| URL | http://www.educationandemployers.org/research/department-for-education-research-symposium/ |
| Description | Presentation at Education and Employers Taskforce |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Industry/Business |
| Results and Impact | Presented to an audience of over 50 participants, discussed how findings are relevant for both businesses and schools. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2013 |
| URL | http://www.educationandemployers.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/teenage_career_expectations.pdf |
| Description | Presentation at International Pathways to Adulthood Conference |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Other audiences |
| Results and Impact | This conference brought together experts from different disciplines and from different countries, drawing on evidence from longitudinal studies and large scale surveys to examine the multiple influences on gendered career choices and development in a changing social context. Our presentation was attended by over 50 participants and further discussion about future collaboration was one of the outcomes of the talk. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2010 |
| URL | http://www.pathwaystoadulthood.org/docs/Pathways%20to%20Adulthood%20International%20Conference%20Pac... |
| Description | Presentation at SRCD |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Other audiences |
| Results and Impact | Here we presented our work on uncertainty in educational aspirations: The role of school engagement at the Society for Research in Child Development Biennial conference in Seattle. About 50 people attended our presentation. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2013 |
| URL | http://www.srcd.org/sites/default/files/documents/2013_srcd_program_book_3.pdf |
| Description | Presentation at the London and South East 14-19 Research and Development Day 14-19 Curriculum and Leadership |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | 50 teachers attended a presentation about uncertainty in aspirations which followed a discussion about the implications for teachers and schools |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2011 |
| URL | http://www.ioe.ac.uk/Study_Departments/Post14_CurrLead_flyer.pdf |