Russia and the EU in the Common Neighbourhood: Export of Governance and Legal (In)Compatibility

Lead Research Organisation: University of Birmingham
Department Name: CREES

Abstract

As the European Union (EU) has stepped up its engagement with the Eastern neighbours, the role of Russia in the common neighbourhood has increasingly come into the spotlight. Yet, in contrast to the EU's governance, little is known of governance promoted by Russia in its vicinity. The project aims to explore how and with what effect Russia engages in the export of governance to the post-Soviet states in Europe and its implications for the EU's system of regional governance.

The project seeks not only to generate much needed empirical data on Russia's governance-related influences but also to contribute to a wider scholarly and policy debate on the role of non-western international actors in promotion of governance abroad. Given the paucity of systematic and comparative field research on the subject (despite their high implications for policy making), the results of the project are likely to be of interest not just to academic communities but also a non-academic audience, e.g. British and EU policy-makers and business professionals.

The project is conceived as mapping of Russia's export of governance by focussing on three post-Soviet states in the 'common neighbourhood', namely Ukraine, Armenia and Belarus, in terms of (i) Russia's active promotion of governance, (ii) partner countries' receptivity to Russia's governance templates (whether through active promotion and/or emulation), and (iii) ways in which (if any) Russia's export of governance affects, or is compatible with, the EU's external governance in the region. The overall objective is thus to examine the impact of Russia's export of governance against the backdrop of domestic receptivity in the post-Soviet countries with the aim of delineating more clearly any emerging (in)compatibility with EU's policies.

The project draws on conceptual tools of international relations and political science but also, importantly, on international and comparative law and Russian and East European Studies. The resulting theoretical synthesis seeks to capture Russia's influence as a sui generis rising power which, unlike western states and international organisations, is characterised by a weak rule of law, penetration by business interests, and a strong reliance on informal rules. At the same time, export of governance is not a unidirectional process and, despite asymmetries of power, Russia's neighbours are not merely passive recipients. Therefore, much of the empirical work will involve collecting data in the selected post-Soviet states in addition to conducting research in/on Russia itself.

The project will focus on four policy fields: a. energy, b. technical standards, c. reform of the tax administration and d. corporate governance. These fields are selected because of their high salience for the UK, the EU and the post-Soviet countries, including Russia, while the choice of countries in which these fields are examined (Armenia, Ukraine and Belarus) allows the researchers to develop a comprehensive picture of Russia's role.

The overall objective is thus to examine the impact of Russia's export of governance against the backdrop of domestic receptivity in the post-Soviet countries with the aim of delineating more clearly any emerging (in)compatibility with the EU's policies. Thus, the project tackles difficult analytical and empirical issues as to the role of Russia as a regional power in the post-Soviet space, and the interdependences this creates for the EU and addresses the theme of 'Global and regional governance and the balance of power'.

Planned Impact

Academic Impact

Social science research base impact: The project will generate analytical and empirical publications which will contribute to the knowledge base and debates with benefit to numerous and diverse academic communities (see 'academic beneficiaries' section). Through the dedicated, interactive project web-site we will seek not just the dissemination of findings but also a generation of discussions across academic areas which, while focusing on similar problems, often remain insular and fragmented. Given that this project represents a multi-disciplinary, cross-country, cross policy-fields approach, the aim is bring together insights that span theories, methods and approaches in analysing an emergent and complex phenomenon.

Teaching impact: The project aims to make a significant contribution in terms of the research-oriented teaching at postgraduate taught level and research supervision. The project workshops and dissemination activities will be tailored also for postgraduate research students in various disciplines by addressing conceptual, empirical and methodological issues they engage in, thereby contributing to the development of a new generation of researchers.

Policy Impact

Its impact on the policy-making and opinion-making communities will be achieved by close contacts with officials in the UK and EU as well as dissemination via a variety of 'policy-friendly' formats to ensure the effective communication with non-academic users.

The key non-academic user within the UK government will be the Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO). The FCO staff has already expressed a high degree of interest in the project and proposed convening a workshop on the project topic at the FCO in London even prior to the commencement of the project. Duncan Allan, Research Analyst has agreed to join the Steering Group (see below). Relevant staff in London and at the British Embassies in/for Ukraine, Belarus, Armenia and Russia will be informed about the project's design and findings prior to/during the project and project briefing papers will be directly disseminated to all the relevant staff in the FCO.

Furthermore, the project aims to shape the ongoing debate on the EU's policy towards the post-Soviet countries not only in the UK but in Europe. To achieve this, policy-focused briefings will be prepared and disseminated via leading UK and European think-tanks, such as the Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS) in Brussels, Chatham House in London, the EU Institute for Security Studies (EU-ISS) in Paris and through the Centre for Eastern Studies (Warsaw) in order to attract the attention of policy-makers, independent experts and the media across Europe.

To ensure the highest policy impact, the project will convene a Steering Group consisting of: Evgeniy Vinokurov (Eurasian Development Bank, St Petersburg), Duncan Allan (FCO), Prof. Julian Cooper (University of Birmingham) and Dr Laure Delcour (IRIS, France), which will be supporting the investigators in impact-related activities.

With regard to the media, the investigators will seek to disseminate research findings in articles/interviews related to 'newsworthy' events in/around the countries in question, building on the Principal Investigator's experience of publishing op-ed pieces in leading English-language newspapers (such as The Financial Time and The Wall Street Journal) and frequent radio and TV interviews.

A professionally-designed project website will facilitate the effective dissemination and impact. The dedicated website will contain information about the project, activities and publications as well as a discussion forum.

Publications

10 25 50
 
Description The project analysed Russia's governance role in the Eastern neighbourhood and its implications for the EU. Our key findings are:

1) Region-building is paramount to Russia's strategy as a global rising power
Eurasian integration - the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) - has been Russia's key tool in re-building its strength on the international arena: the regional is a stepping stone to the global. This primary geopolitical utility of region-building defines the way Russia exports governance to the region. Russia does not seek to transform the neighbouring states by concerted 'export of governance' but uses rules and the integration agenda instrumentally to secure geopolitical loyalty and prevent re-orientation towards other external actors. The primacy of security and geopolitical issues was strengthened following the 'Ukraine crisis', paralleled by a decline in Russia's attention to the technocratic aspects of regional governance and its willingness to be constrained by the multilateral regime, with important implications for the viability of the regime.

2) There is strong evidence of isomorphism between Russia's domestic and regional governance
Governance at the regional level replicates Russia's domestic system of strategic and selective use of formal and informal rules. Despite some investment in the regional legal and institutional architecture, power-driven dynamics prevails in interactions between states. While this can be labelled 'bad governance', it can also be viewed as different governance - one which takes place on a continuum between rules and personalised diplomacy embedded in complex social allegiances and economic dependencies. Thus, the project affirmed the need for a broad definition of governance templates promoted by Rising Powers, including substantive and procedural, formal and informal rules and practices.

3) Receptivity to Russia's influence is defined by the nature of the political regimes in 'target' countries
The motivation to participate in Russia's re-integration project is driven by series of bilateral 'grand bargains' between Russia and its followers. i.e. other post-Soviet states. The bargains, reflecting pre-existing dependencies on Russia, are concluded at the highest political level, facilitated by the non-democratic nature of the political regimes in the participating states. This instrumental commitment amongst Russia's 'followers', however, is not conducive to 'deep' economic integration. The poor governance characterising the EAEU members, in particular, presents a severe test to the effective functioning of the union as a rules-based regime.

4) Russia's rising power strategy seeks to counter EU's influence
The project found that Russia's regional strategy was driven by counterbalancing EU's export of governance rather than its own transformative agenda. This is best illustrated by Russia's efforts to attract Ukraine to the EAEU. As revealed in the trilateral negotiations on the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement, Russia paid little attention to the technical content, legal compatibility and functionality of the trade regimes. Instead, the defining focus was on 'who sets the rules' in Russia's perceived sphere of influence. Thus, our overarching finding that power rather than rules define Eurasian integration has important implications for EU's strategy to Russia and suggests the limited utility of technocratic, non-geopolitical solutions in interactions with Russia.
Exploitation Route Scholarly community
The project opened up new research questions with regard to 1) dynamics of regional integration amongst non-democratic states with strong power asymmetries, 2) interactions and tensions between regional and global objectives and strategies of rising powers and 3) interactions between formal and informal rules in regional integration frameworks. The EAEU represents an interesting project to emulate the EU's integration model but in response to a broader geopolitical, global agenda. With its complex dynamics and the apparent inability to live up the 'deep' integration agenda, it requires further scholarly scrutiny, which will necessitate and benefit from a multi-disciplinary approach.

Policy makers
Policy discussions on whether the EU should engage more closely with the EEU should consider the actual nature of Eurasian integration as well as dominant position of Russia in shaping the external agenda of the EEU. Accordingly, direct political engagement with Russia may be preferable over seeking closer integration between the EU and the EEU. At the same time, it is key to avoid the marginalisation of Russia's regional partners - both members of the EAEU and its neighbours. New policy approaches in Russia-EU and EU's Neighbourhood Policy need to be devised to address the geopolitical underpinnings of Russia's ambition.
Sectors Government, Democracy and Justice,Security and Diplomacy

URL http://www.lse.ac.uk/IDEAS/publications/reports/pdf/SR019/SR019-Dragneva-Wolczuk.pdf
 
Description Impact has been achieved by various activities conducted by Prof. Kataryna Wolczuk and Prof. Rilka Dragneva under the ESRC-funded project 'Russia and the EU in the Common Neighbourhood: Export of Governance and Legal (In)Compatibility'. In general, the project has explored 1) linkages between domestic and external policies in Russia, Belarus, Armenia and Ukraine, 2) the dynamics of Eurasian integration along with the nature and viability of the newly launched Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), 3) consequences of Russia's regional strategies for the EU and the UK as well as global dynamics. The research has elucidated the political and economic characteristics and legal dimensions of Eurasian integration and the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU). Of particular relevance has been the analysis of how Russia has used the Eurasian framework to pursue its geopolitical objectives, particularly in terms of competing with EU's policies over Ukraine and other post-Soviet states. Thanks to the timely research agenda, we experienced unprecedented policy interest in understanding the nature of Russia's integration project in order to pursue avenues for the resolution of the Ukraine issue through for example 'economic connectivity'. Of particular policy importance has been the issue of how the EU should respond to the calls made by Russia and some EU member states and experts for some form of recognition and engagement with the EEU. The views have varied, often reflecting pre-existing ideological preferences rather than an informed, comprehensive and long-term position. The research carried out has contributed to debates and seeks to shape EU's and the international community's responses to the EEU and Russia's claims over the common neighbourhood by 1) publishing high impact policy-oriented publications 2) engaging with think-tanks and policy-making networks, as well as 3) responding directly to the queries of policy-makers. Shaping debates on Eurasian economic integration We have contributed to the understanding of the legal and political nature of the Eurasian Customs Union/Eurasian Economic Union. We participated and presented at dedicated events attended by policy-makers, members of the diplomatic corps, business representatives and leading journalists, organised by: in the UK - by Chatham House (July 2013, co-organiser) and LSE (Sept 2014). We have written a very widely read research paper for Chatham House, contributed to a special LSE IDEAS Report. At events such as Dahrendorf Forum (LSE, London March 2016) and in policy briefs for the European Leadership Network, European Policy Centre, Dahrendorf Forum, we have sought to influence policy-making opinion, advocating the need for caution in engagement given the differences between the EU and the EEU, Russia's instrumental use of regional integration and the potentially costly implications for EU's bilateral relations in the region. Similarly, we contributed to an event and a publication of the Foreign Policy Centre on the future of the EU's Eastern Partnership, under a joint project with the European Commission Representation in the UK (Feb 2015). Contributing to the shaping of policy responses to Russia's objections to the EU-Ukraine's Association Agreement and assessing their implications for the future of the EU's Eastern Partnership (2014-2015) We provided confidential policy advice to the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs in analysing Russia's objections to the Association Agreement and suggested responses (August 2014). (The objections, including our assessment, were leaked to a leading Ukrainian newspaper, Zerkalo Nedeli.) Drawing on various outputs in relation to the nature of Russia's objections to the AA, we argued that the EU's suspension of parts of the AA in response to these objections has been a deeply problematic and costly step and have advocated a principled and comprehensive approach. These views have been presented in policy briefs for the European Policy Centre and Chatham House (see publications). FCO Providing tailored analysis and presentations to the FCO and the House of Commons on Russia and Ukraine Kataryna Wolczuk has been asked by the Foreign and Commonwealth Office to provide expert analysis at a number of events related to Ukraine and Russia. She delivered a presentation at a seminar on the Ukraine protests at the FCO (Feb 2014), participated in a high-level strategy meeting on UK/EU-Russia relations with the Minister for Europe at the FCO, London (May 2014), participated in a briefing of the UK Ambassador-Designate to Ukraine, FCO, London (July 2015), delivered an after dinner speech at the 'Wilton Park workshop: understanding Russia and the neighbouring region' for the FCO 'Future Leaders event' for diplomatic staff working on Russia, Eastern Europe and Central Asia (March 2016). In 2015, Prof. Wolczuk was invited to join the 'Locarno Group' for the FCO's Eastern Europe & Central Asia Directorate (EECAD) in 2015. The Group brings together a small group of non-FCO experts on a regular basis for policy discussions with Ministers and senior officials here (held under the Chatham House rule). Kataryna Wolczuk was also asked to provide expertise to the House of Commons. For example, she delivered a presentation on the crisis in Ukraine at the House of Commons, All Party Parliamentary Group for Global Uncertainties Meeting "Is the Threat to Ukraine a Threat For Europe?" (July 2014) and delivered a presentation on the EU's position towards the Eurasian integration project during the seminar 'Trouble in the Neighbourhood? The future of the EU's Eastern Partnership', involving MPs at the House of Commons, London (Feb 2015) EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT (BRUSSELS) AND THE COUNCIL OF EUROPE (STRASBOURG) Kataryna Wolczuk has been regularly invited to provide expertise for the European Parliament. For example, she gave a presentation at the Public Hearing on the EU's response to Russian foreign and trade policies towards the post-Soviet states during a joint session of two committees of the European Parliament in Brussels (Committee on International Trade and the Committee on Foreign Affairs) on a panel, which also included two Directors-General from the DG Trade and European External Action Service (March 2014). She was invited to delivered a presentation at a closed seminar for Council of Europe (Coe) senior officials on EU-CoE cooperation in Eastern Europe on a panel together with the Chief Negotiator of the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement in Strasbourg (May 2014) Prof. Wolczuk also delivered a presentation for the European Parliament's Committee on Foreign Affairs during a public hearing (involving national parliaments as well) on 'Proxy Wars' which took place on 10 November 2015 (presenting on Russian involvement in proxy wars). EUROPEAN GOVERNMENTS The researchers also responded to invitations to provide expertise by the European governments Prof. Dragneva contributed to a confidential report, commissioned by the Swiss Ministry of Foreign Affairs and coordinated by Zurich's Centre for Security Studies. The report sought to outline a range of policy options for the Swiss government, the chair of OSCE at the time, which sought to bring the EU and Russia to the table and in preparation for a top-level visit (state secretary and federal chancellor) to the Caucasus region. Prof. Dragneva responded by email, phone and in face-to-face meetings to direct queries of officers of DG Trade and the EU Trade Delegation in Moscow, FCO, French Embassy in Moscow and Polish Embassy in Moscow in assisting them to gain an understanding of the legal aspects of Eurasian integration and the new Treaty on the EEU. Kataryna Wolczuk delivered a presentation on the Ukraine-EU Association Agreement at the conference at the Clingendael Institute in the Hague with Dutch foreign policy makers (March 2015). She delivered a presentation on the 'Ukrainian crisis' at the Swedish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, attended by officials from various Swedish Ministries (April 2015) and delivered a presentation on Russia at the DGAP seminar on the Eastern Partnership with German and EU experts and policy makers, Berlin (March 2015). She also delivered a seminar presentation for the Foreign Minister of Norway and 12 Norwegian Ambassadors to Eastern Europe and Central Asia, Oslo (Aug 2013) THINK-TANKS (UK, EU AND US) The two researchers have engaged widely with British, European and American think-tanks. Dragneva provided expert opinion on the nature of Eurasian integration to the unit within the World Economic Forum in Switzerland responsible for government relations in Eurasia, which has been exploring options for increased cooperation with the EEU (April 2016). She has also provided customised and solicited advice for the preparation of a report on the EEU for the International Crisis Group (April 2016). Finally, Dragneva has written a short report on the EEU by Oxford Analytica, acting on behalf of their client ('a department of the US government') (May 2016). At events with the European Policy Centre (Brussels) and Clingendael (the Hague) in Jan 2016 Prof. Dragneva sought to influence policy-making opinion, advocating the need for caution in engagement given the differences between the EU and the EEU, Russia's instrumental use of regional integration. Kataryna Wolczuk delivered a number of lectures and presentations on Ukraine, for example, a lecture on Belarus and Ukraine to Belgian civil servants, judges and military personnel at the Royal Institute of International Affairs in Brussels (September 2014); a seminar on Ukrainian domestic reforms at Chatham House, London (Sept 2014), a presentation on the Ukraine-EU Association Agreement at the IISS Global Strategic Review with EU and US policy makers, Oslo (Sept 2014); a presentation on the Ukrainian crisis at the British Academy conference on Fragile States (Oct 2014). She also delivered presentations on Ukraine and regional economic integration at the conference on the Eastern Partnership with diplomats from Slovakia and other EU member states, Bratislava (2014, 2015 and 2016). Prof. Kataryna Wolczuk participated in the conference on EU-Russia relations at the Ditchley Park conference on Russia-EU relations with EU, US and Russian policy makers. In Feb 2015, she acted as a Group Rapporteur for the Group led by Dr Fiona Hill, who subsequently became deputy assistant to the US President on European and Russian Affairs.
First Year Of Impact 2013
Sector Security and Diplomacy
Impact Types Policy & public services

 
Description EU FP7
Amount € 2,500,000 (EUR)
Organisation European Commission 
Sector Public
Country European Union (EU)
Start 02/2014 
End 02/2017
 
Description H2020
Amount € 285,000 (EUR)
Organisation European Commission 
Sector Public
Country European Union (EU)
Start 04/2016 
End 04/2019
 
Description Briefine of the UK Ambassador-designate to Ukraine 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Delivered a presentationon EU-Ukraine relations in a closed session with the Ambassador-designate and Whitehall policy makers.

I have been invited to speak at the FCO events related to Russia and Ukraine. I have also been sharing publications (both policy oriented and academic) with FCO staff.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2011
 
Description Co-organisation and presentation at a seminar on Eurasian integration at Chatham House (R. Dragneva and K Wolczuk) 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact a half-day long seminar with presentations and discussion with UK, European and Russian representatives, including Dr Tatiana Valovaya, Commissioner for Integration, Eurasian Economic Commission, Moscow as a keynote speaker.

Invitations from Moscow and other bodies (including the COuncil of Europe) to further events
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Delivered a presentation on the Parliamentary Elections in 2012 at a Chatham House seminar in January 2013 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact talk spared questions and lively discussion

further requests for speaking at Chatham House
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Delivering a presentation on Ukraine-Russia trade relations to the joint session of the Committee for Foreign Affairs and the Trade Committee of the European Parliament 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact The presentation sparked a lively debate amongst the MEPs.

The briefing session shaped the European Parliament's position on the crisis in Ukraine.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Delivering a presentation to the senior staff in a closed briefing session at the Council of Europe in Strasbour in May 2014 in Strasbourg 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact The talk sparked a very open discussion on relations between the EU and the COuncil of Europe with regard to a cooperation on promotion of democracy and good governance in EU's eastern neighbourhood.

Requests for further participation in the activities of the COuncil of Europe
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Kataryna Wolczuk has been an Associate Research Fellow (Russia and Eurasian Programme) at Chatham House, London and a member of the advisory board of the Ukraine Forum at Chatham House 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Participation in various activities of Chatham House, including preparing publications, on Ukraine and other post-Soviet countries
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015,2016,2017
 
Description Kataryna Wolczuk has served as a member of the Locarno Group - an informal advisory board to the Minister for Europe and Americas, Foreign and Commonwealth Office and other parts of the Whitehall in London 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Regular participation in meetings with senior Whitehall officials dealing with Russia and other post-Soviet countries
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015,2016,2017
 
Description Presentation on EU's Eastern neighbours to the Foreign Minister of Norway and 12 Norwegian ambassadors to the post-Soviet countries 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact very frank and open discussion with high-level Norwegian officials

requests for further engagement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Speaking at London School of Economics IDEAS Roundtable 'Russia's Eurasia Policies and the Ukraine Crisis' in September 2014 in London 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact questions and discussion

feedback on how useful the event was + invitation to further events
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Visit at the permanent regulator of the Eurasian Customs Union - the Eurasian Economic Commission; briefings with representatives of the British Embassy, EU Delegation and Polish Embassy in Moscow (R. Dragneva and K.Wolczuk 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact informa, off-the-record discussions

requests for further information, invitation to events.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013