Scottish Referendum Study 2014

In September 2014 Scottish residents aged 16+ will be able to vote in a referendum on independence for Scotland. The referendum offers the possibility of meaningful constitutional change, as well as a key departure in terms of the electoral franchise by extending the right to vote to 16 and 17 year olds. We will conduct an online survey before the referendum to identify the factors that will influence vote intention and likelihood of voting and two further surveys after the referendum to identify whether and why people voted the way they did. This will be a panel study, using the same respondents before and after so that we can determine how intentions translate into behaviour, and see how expectations influence reactions to the referendum result.

We will explore whether and how individuals decide to vote and how these processes might differ from those in elections at the Scottish or UK level. We will focus on the impact of the campaign itself and how campaign engagement might interact with the timing of vote decisions, knowledge of and perceived uncertainty about different constitutional options. Part of this involves describing fundamental facts about the nature of public opinion in Scotland. This includes a comprehensive assessment of preferences for different constitutional options in Scotland. The referendum offers a binary choice but polling has long demonstrated that the perceived 'middle ground' attracts most voters. We will explore the relationships among preferences for different constitutional options as well as knowledge of what distinguishes these options from each other. This will allow us to identify the structure, consistency and determinants of preferences about constitutional options in Scotland. Throughout we will locate Scottish findings within a comparative context, drawing on data and research from other constitutional referendums.

Our specific research questions stem from different theories of voting behaviour in elections and referendums. They focus on the impact of uncertainty, on the reaction of those who backed the losing side, on the extent to which constitutional change is about policy or identity, on variations in preferences across genders and the unique socialization into electoral participation that this offers to 16 and 17 year olds, many of whom will be unable to vote in the 2015 UK general election.

We are eager to contribute to public debate and facilitate engagement with the research process. To this end we will hold consultation events before the survey begins and will invite academic researchers and secondary students to suggest questions for the survey.

With respect to the communication of findings, one benefit of online research is that it facilitates the quick release of data so that we will be able to contribute to public debate about the referendum result with analysis that identifies the types of voters who backed different options. We will conduct briefing events and produce briefing papers, as well as generate top quality academic research for academic journals and a co-authored book. In addition we will hold several capacity building events to facilitate access to data and data analysis for secondary school and university students.

Referendum and election surveys generate insights about public opinion. The impact of these insights - on government policy, on party and candidate strategies, on the media's understanding of voters' thinking - is by nature indirect and diffuse. However, the means of maximising such impact is the same. We have already discussed this proposal with a number of practitioners, policymakers and other impact partners: the campaigning teams; the Electoral Commission Scotland; researchers in the Scottish Government and other non-academic organisations such as the Electoral Reform Society; the mass media, notably the BBC and its Generation 2014 project; and teachers and students of Modern Studies and other subjects bridging the skills gap between social sciences and STEM. The extension of the franchise to 16- and 17-year-olds provides both another set of impact partners and the opportunity to inform policy directly, as various stakeholders assess the impact of this innovation.

As described in detail in the Pathways to Impact document, we would engage these impact partners throughout the project, notably at three key stages:

1. Designing the surveys - In addition to inviting comments from our advisory board on drafts of the survey, we will also engage with impact partners in two ways: first, by an open consultation for all interested parties in which we will invite proposals for questions; second, by two parallel competitions - among researchers and among secondary school students - for small amounts of questionnaire space. In these ways, we will not only capitalise on existing links but forge new ones so as to form a wider network of interested parties.

2. Initial headline findings - The speed of internet surveys means that findings from our pre-referendum survey will be available the day after polling, and that post-referendum findings will follow just days later. These will be circulated to our impact partners and other interested parties via a range of channels: posts on policy blogs, press releases and media appearances, the project website, and social media.

3. Further analysis - In parallel to our scientific outputs, we will produce non-technical briefings on some key issues: the extension of the franchise to those over 16; the efficacy of the referendum in informing the public; where constitutional preferences stand following the referendum; and the referendum's consequences beyond Scotland. These will serve as the basis for two workshops at which our impact partners can discuss the broader implications of our findings.

Capitalising on the extension of the franchise to reach this difficult audience, we will seek a particular impact on first-time voters. We will develop materials based on the SRS, focused particularly but not only on the votes-at-16 issue, that are suitable for use not only in Modern Studies and Politics lessons but also in Maths and Statistics classes. In addition to circulating these materials to teachers, we will also host events of our own that demonstrate the role of our quantitative data in addressing important political questions. We will thereby contribute to wider efforts to boost statistical skills among young people in general, and social science students in particular.