Aftershocks: Identity, immigration and political change after Brexit

The disruptions set in train by the EU referendum and the long, polarising Brexit negotiation which followed continue to reverberate through the British political system, accelerating political change through the mobilisation of new demographic and identity divides. The central goal of this fellowship is to develop, analyse and disseminate cutting edge research on these Brexit aftershocks, through three research projects investigating different aspects of this broad theme. These projects are as follows:

(1) Brexitland after Brexit: how demographic change continues to fuel political change This project will utilise new data resources to deepen understanding of the new demographic divides reshaping British politics. It has three strands: (1) Analysis of constituency level demographic and political change over the past decade, using newly available census data (2) Analysis of survey data to examine the evolution of identity divides over the 2019-2024 Parliament (3) A new survey with randomised experiments to test mechanisms explaining the mobilisation of new identity divides. A co-produced report will be published in September 2023, coinciding with the (probable) last party conference season of the Parliament.
(2) Warmer welcomes? Identity politics, liberal mobilisation and public opinion on immigration two decades after the A8 enlargement This project will deepen our knowledge of attitudes to immigration, and in particular the mechanisms driving the 'liberal turn' in migration attitudes. It has three strands: (1) examination of evolving public views and political impacts from immigration over two decades (2) A new module of immigration attitudes questions on the NatCen mixed mode panel (3) A second survey with a series of randomised experiments to investigate the mechanisms driving changes in migration attitudes. A co-produced report will be published in March 2024, to coincide with the 20th anniversary of the A8 enlargement.
(3) New dawn or false dawn? The role of identity politics in the 2024 general election The next general election will be the first fought since the implementation of the UK's Withdrawal Agreement and is likely to feature a very different issue agenda. The third project will assess the role of identity divides in this new context. It has three strands: (1) Analysis of demographic change and identity divides in the 2024 election at the aggregate and individual level using constituency and survey data. (2) Elite interviewing to analyse how party elites understood the role of identity divides in the election campaign, and the strategies they employed to respond. (3) A survey study with randomised experiments to rigorously test the impact of elite cues and messages to mobilise or neutralise identity divides. A co-produced report will be published in Spring 2025, ahead of the first anniversary of the election.

All the fellowship research activities will be collaborative and will engage broad audiences beyond the academy. Each will feature a major report co-produced with a relevant stakeholder organisation, with launch event, dissemination and communications packages organised in co-ordination with the UKICE hub. Alongside these major reports and events, I will undertake an intensive program of communication and engagement activity to contribute to the UKICE Hub goal of promoting rigorous, high quality independent social science. I will produce a monthly "Polling Observatory" blog analysing polling and public opinion, to be published via Hub outlets. I will make regular contributions to the UKICE Hub across formats - briefings, commentaries, blogs, videos, podcasts, social media etc - on both my research projects and on broader areas of interest and expertise. I will participate regularly in UKICE conferences, briefings, roundtables and panel discussions, and I will use my extensive public profile, media experience and professional networks to promote Hub work and activity throughout the fellowship.