Addressing the ability of marine aquaculture to respond to climate change using systems thinking and precision-based frameworks
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Stirling
Department Name: Institute of Aquaculture
Abstract
By 2050 it is estimated that the global population will exceed 9 billion. This is expected to result in a 100% increase in demand for food. The world needs more high-quality protein, produced in a responsible manner. This challenge is addressed by UN Sustainable Development Goals SDG2 (Zero hunger) and SDG12 (Responsible Consumption and Production). Expansion of marine fish aquaculture has been highlighted as a key route to increase food production. It is also an important area for the blue economy with high potential for new jobs and revenue. In the UK, marine aquaculture is worth over £2 billion to the economy, supports 2300 jobs and has ambitions to double production by 2030. But climate change is a threat as fish production is highly sensitive to the environment.
Climate change assessments are often only available for large areas, e.g. global or regional, and do not capture the local conditions that influence fish production. They focus on long-term decadal averages which miss the daily environmental variability and multiple stressors that fish experience. Impacts on growth, health and welfare of the farmed fish are determined by these environment-biological complexities at farm level, and are also influenced by production strategies and industry decisions which may be based on social or economic factors. Robust, industry-relevant, climate impact assessment must include the complexities, relationships and trade-offs between different natural processes and human interventions. Thus, a more comprehensive approach which uses systems thinking to capture the interlinking interdisciplinary components is urgently needed. Precision aquaculture, where vast amounts of data are collected and analysed, offers a framework to provide the detail required to understand the complex farm system, evaluate how the environment is changing and assess implications for future production.
In this FLF, I will deliver a rigorous scientific framework for assessing impact of climate change on marine aquaculture using systems thinking and precision-based information. I will create an approach which integrates detailed knowledge of what is happening in the complex farm system now, with future projections of climate change and potential stakeholder response. This will involve collecting high resolution data, analysing complex datasets, developing farm-level models, simulating future climate scenarios, and determining the adaptive capacity of the sector. I will work closely with my network of key industry partners, research organisations, regulators and policy makers to maximise translation and transfer of knowledge and approaches to industry and associated stakeholders.
Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) aquaculture in the Northeast Atlantic (Scotland and Norway) is used as a case study. Salmon leads marine fish production, with over 2 million tonnes produced each year, the equivalent of 17.5 billion meals. Norway and Scotland are responsible for 60% of production. The latitudinal range of farms extends across the thermal tolerance of the salmon, from temperate conditions in Scotland and south Norway, to arctic conditions in the north of Norway. This allows assessment of the spatio-temporal heterogeneity of climate change and a thorough analysis of how impact may vary between locations and different responses required. Beyond aquaculture, the positioning of marine fish farms offers an exceptional opportunity to gain deeper insight into the rate, magnitude and variability of climate change in coastal areas. This FLF will deliver vital new knowledge, data and approaches to understand how the environment is changing.
This research is highly interdisciplinary, covering aspects of climate, environmental, biological and social science. The innovative techniques and transformative approaches will allow aquaculture to respond to the climate emergency, enhance blue economy opportunities and maximise its contribution to global food security.
Climate change assessments are often only available for large areas, e.g. global or regional, and do not capture the local conditions that influence fish production. They focus on long-term decadal averages which miss the daily environmental variability and multiple stressors that fish experience. Impacts on growth, health and welfare of the farmed fish are determined by these environment-biological complexities at farm level, and are also influenced by production strategies and industry decisions which may be based on social or economic factors. Robust, industry-relevant, climate impact assessment must include the complexities, relationships and trade-offs between different natural processes and human interventions. Thus, a more comprehensive approach which uses systems thinking to capture the interlinking interdisciplinary components is urgently needed. Precision aquaculture, where vast amounts of data are collected and analysed, offers a framework to provide the detail required to understand the complex farm system, evaluate how the environment is changing and assess implications for future production.
In this FLF, I will deliver a rigorous scientific framework for assessing impact of climate change on marine aquaculture using systems thinking and precision-based information. I will create an approach which integrates detailed knowledge of what is happening in the complex farm system now, with future projections of climate change and potential stakeholder response. This will involve collecting high resolution data, analysing complex datasets, developing farm-level models, simulating future climate scenarios, and determining the adaptive capacity of the sector. I will work closely with my network of key industry partners, research organisations, regulators and policy makers to maximise translation and transfer of knowledge and approaches to industry and associated stakeholders.
Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) aquaculture in the Northeast Atlantic (Scotland and Norway) is used as a case study. Salmon leads marine fish production, with over 2 million tonnes produced each year, the equivalent of 17.5 billion meals. Norway and Scotland are responsible for 60% of production. The latitudinal range of farms extends across the thermal tolerance of the salmon, from temperate conditions in Scotland and south Norway, to arctic conditions in the north of Norway. This allows assessment of the spatio-temporal heterogeneity of climate change and a thorough analysis of how impact may vary between locations and different responses required. Beyond aquaculture, the positioning of marine fish farms offers an exceptional opportunity to gain deeper insight into the rate, magnitude and variability of climate change in coastal areas. This FLF will deliver vital new knowledge, data and approaches to understand how the environment is changing.
This research is highly interdisciplinary, covering aspects of climate, environmental, biological and social science. The innovative techniques and transformative approaches will allow aquaculture to respond to the climate emergency, enhance blue economy opportunities and maximise its contribution to global food security.
Organisations
- University of Stirling (Fellow, Lead Research Organisation)
- Sainsbury's (United Kingdom) (Project Partner)
- R3-IoT Ltd (Project Partner)
- Nova Sea (Norway) (Project Partner)
- Scottish Environment Protection Agency (Project Partner)
- Dalhousie University (Project Partner)
- Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (Project Partner)
- Hellenic Centre for Marine Research (Project Partner)
- University of ConcepciĆ³n (Project Partner)
- Norwegian Institute of Marine Research (Project Partner)
- Marine Scotland (Project Partner)
- Mowi Scotland Ltd (Project Partner)
- Zhejiang Ocean University (Project Partner)
- Cargill Aqua Nutrition (EWOS (Project Partner)
- University of Tasmania (Project Partner)
- Seafish (Project Partner)
- Global Salmon Initiative (Project Partner)
- Tesco (United Kingdom) (Project Partner)
- Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science (Project Partner)
Publications
Falconer L
(2023)
Context matters when using climate model projections for aquaculture
in Frontiers in Marine Science
Ytteborg E
(2023)
Climate change with increasing seawater temperature will challenge the health of farmed Atlantic Cod (Gadus morhua L.)
in Frontiers in Marine Science
Description | This research is developing new and improved approaches to assess how climate change will affect marine fish farms and identify potential adaptation responses. The work has considered how existing datasets can be used to monitor changes in the environment, and the project has produced guidance on how climate model projections can be used for coastal aquaculture purposes. The research is using data and models to uncover the trends and variability in how climate change is altering farming conditions at aquaculture sites, and then combining this with analysis into effects of different direct and in-direct stressors. This work is leading to new understanding of the potential challenges that the aquaculture industry may face in the future and the results so far are emphasising the need for local-scale assessments into climate change impacts and adaptation planning as there are differences between locations and farming systems. |
Exploitation Route | The research is generating new knowledge, methodologies, models, and tools that can be used by researchers, industry and policymakers in the UK and internationally. Aquaculture stakeholders (producers, health specialists, equipment manufacturers, planners, regulators etc) can use the outcomes to support data-driven long-term planning of the sector. Fish production is influenced by the farming environment, and the information generated in this project can be used to develop more local-scale, and site specific, analysis of how climate change may impact the farm-level conditions. This allows development of more targeted adaptation responses that can address the challenges that aquaculture sites will face and building resilience in the sector. |
Sectors | Agriculture, Food and Drink,Environment |
Description | This research has contributed new knowledge on the information required to understand how climate change is, or could, affect marine aquaculture farms. The initial findings are already contributing to improved efforts by researchers and industry stakeholders to monitor changing conditions, and are being used to inform how data can be collected, stored, and analysed to support short, medium and long-term decisions in the aquaculture industry. |
First Year Of Impact | 2022 |
Sector | Agriculture, Food and Drink,Environment |
Impact Types | Societal |
Description | Input to the new Scottish aquaculture strategy (Vision for Scottish aquaculture) |
Geographic Reach | National |
Policy Influence Type | Contribution to a national consultation/review |
Description | MSc research supervision |
Geographic Reach | Multiple continents/international |
Policy Influence Type | Influenced training of practitioners or researchers |
Impact | The student gained new and improved skillset in data analysis and aquaculture modelling, as well as increased understanding of the subject area which can then be put into practice and used in future career. |
Description | SSAC Aquaculture roundtable |
Geographic Reach | Local/Municipal/Regional |
Policy Influence Type | Contribution to a national consultation/review |
Description | Article in Aquaculture North America |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Industry/Business |
Results and Impact | An article on an industry news site about the complexities of aquaculture and climate change and the need to look at other stressors in addition to temperature. This led to new contacts within industry. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
URL | https://www.aquaculturenorthamerica.com/climate-risks-beyond-temperature/ |
Description | Article on Forskersonen.no |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Wrote an article for a Norwegian news website on about the need for action on climate change within the aquaculture sector. The article was intended to raise awareness of challenges that the aquaculture sector my have in the future, as well as possibilities to adapt. The article led to wider discussions and requests for more information from people in the industry and general public. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
URL | https://forskersonen.no/hav-og-fiske-klima-kronikk/overveldet-av-klimakrisen-vi-har-ikke-tid-til-mot... |
Description | Expert panel at Aquaculture UK 2022 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Industry/Business |
Results and Impact | Lynne Falconer was on a panel "Solving the connectivity challenge and digitising aquaculture" at Aquaculture UK, hosted by R3-IoT (now Krucial https://www.krucial.com/). Aquaculture UK is the UK's largest aquaculture trade show. Over 200 global aquaculture companies attend, as we all as other industry stakeholders, regulators and representatives from governmental and non-governmental organisations and researchers. The event was very well attended and led to further discussions and collaborations. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
URL | https://aquacultureuk.com/ |
Description | Interview on local radio about the start of the research project |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press) |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Local |
Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
Results and Impact | This was an interview on Central FM (https://www.centralfm.co.uk/) the local radio station for Forth Valley, Scotland. Lynne Falconer gave a brief overview of the project and what it hoped to achieve. This reached a general public, some who were not familiar with aquaculture, or the challenges climate change will bring for the sector. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
Description | Panel discussion on climate change at IFFO (The Marine Ingredients Organisation) annual conference |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Industry/Business |
Results and Impact | Lynne Falconer was an invited speaker on a panel about climate change at the IFFO (The Marine Ingredients Organisation) annual conference. IFFO is an international trade organisation that represents marine ingredients industry (e.g. fishmeal, fish oil). IFFO has over 230 member organisations from 40 countries. Members include producers, traders, feed companies, retailers, financial institutions, governmental organisations and NGOs. The session on climate change considered how climate change may affect marine ingredients and the aquaculture value chain. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
URL | https://www.iffo.com/takeaways-climate-change-panel-discussion-held-iffos-october-webinar-day-3 |
Description | Presentations at Aquaculture Europe 2022 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Three presentations in the climate change session at Aquaculture Europe 2022 held in Rimini, Italy (27 Sep - 30 Sep 2022): Falconer L, Hjøllo SS, Ytteborg E. 2022. Climate change and aquaculture: working on a puzzle without all the pieces. Hjøllo SS, Aarflot JM, Falconer L, Gao S, Ytteborg E, Skogen MD. 2022. Cumulative impacts of climate change and increased aquaculture production in a Norwegian fjord. Ytteborg E, Falconer L, Lazado CC, Krasnov A, Hansen Ø, Hjøllo SS,, Johansen LH. 2022. Farmed Atlantic cod: seawater temperature affects biological performance, disease development and site selection. The presentations were well attended, with over 100 people in the room. There were interesting discussions and questions, with follow up conversations after the conference. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
URL | https://www.aquaeas.org/Meeting/AE2022 |
Description | Presenter and panellist for webinar on climate change hosted by Fish Farmer Magazine |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press) |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Industry/Business |
Results and Impact | Lynne Falconer was an invited presenter and panellist on a webinar hosted by Fish Farmer Magazine "Aquaculture - Meeting the Threats of Extreme Weather & Climate Change". She gave a short presentation about impact of climate change on aquaculture, and possibilities to adapt. There was a panel discussion with audience questions. This let to new contacts and requests for further information. A summary of the webinar was then reported in the October 2021 edition of Fish Farmer Magazine. https://issuu.com/fishfarmermagazine/docs/fish_farmer_october_2021 |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
URL | https://issuu.com/fishfarmermagazine/docs/fish_farmer_october_2021 |
Description | Presenter and panellist for webinar on connectivity for fish health hosted by Krucial and Fish Farmer Magazine |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press) |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Industry/Business |
Results and Impact | Lynne Falconer was a presenter and panellist on a webinar hosted by Krucial and Fish Farmer Magazine - "Connectibity for good - why better connected fish farms will lead to healthier fish". This was a webinar that focused on how improved connectivity is important for fish health. It reached an international audience of over 250 people from industry, academia, and other sectors. The webinar led to new contacts and requests for further information on research. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
URL | https://www.krucial.com/connectivity-for-good-webinar/ |
Description | Press release - announcement of FLF |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
Results and Impact | A press release to announce the start of the FLF. Industry news websites then wrote articles on the Fish Farmer Magazine (https://www.fishfarmermagazine.com/news/climate-change-research-grant-for-stirlings-falconer/) Salmon Business (https://salmonbusiness.com/stirling-aquaculture-expert-awarded-1-5m-research-fellowship-to-explore-climate-change/) Fish Farming Expert (https://www.fishfarmingexpert.com/article/15m-for-project-to-help-salmon-farmers-cope-with-climate-change/) Fish Focus (https://fishfocus.co.uk/stirling-aquaculture-expert-awarded-1-5m-research-fellowship/) Insider (https://www.insider.co.uk/news/promising-scottish-scientists-awarded-165-24929473) Aquafeed (https://aquafeed.co.uk/entrada/-dr-lynne-falconer-a-university-of-stirling-scientist-has-been-awarded-a-?1.5m-research-fellowship-to-explore-climate-change-53263) The news was also reported in the local newspaper (Stirling Observer) and The National (a Scottish newspaper). This coverage led to requests to discuss the project with new collaborators and policymakers. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
URL | https://www.stir.ac.uk/news/2021/september-2021-news/stirling-aquaculture-expert-awarded-15m-researc... |
Description | Session chair at Aquaculture Europe 2022 (Climate Change session) |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Other audiences |
Results and Impact | Lynne Falconer was a session chair at Aquaculture Europe 2022 conference in Rimini, Italy, for the session on climate change. Over 2000 people (researchers, industry, policymakers) attended the conference which also has a trade show, and over 100 people attended the session on climate change. The session had an international audience and covered a range of topics and species. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
URL | https://www.aquaeas.org/Meeting/AE2022 |