SURface FluxEs In AnTarctica (SURFEIT)
Lead Research Organisation:
British Antarctic Survey
Department Name: Science Programmes
Abstract
Antarctica is changing. In February 2022, sea ice around Antarctica reached the lowest area that has been observed since satellite records began in 1979. This marks the first time that the area of sea ice ice has been observed to shrink below 2 million square kilometres. Compared to the average minimum, the 2022 February minimum is missing an area of sea ice that is about three and a half times the size of the UK. Directly following on from the sea ice minimum, in March 2022 record air temperatures were recorded across much of East Antarctica, with some meteorological stations observing temperatures 40C warmer than normal. These unprecedented conditions were associated with a very intense 'atmospheric river', a narrow corridor of warm water vapour, bringing warm air and moisture to the high Antarctic Plateau. We do not know whether these extreme regional climatic events are just 'one offs', and highly unlikely to occur again, or whether they are an indication of how Antarctic climate will develop in the future.
These recent extreme weather events and conditions in Antarctica have prompted fresh concern about how climate change in this remote region will impact Earth. The protection of coastlines around the world from the future rise in sea level from Antarctica requires a better understanding of how the weather of Antarctica will evolve over the coming century. Any loss of Antarctic ice mass as a result of weather changes may raise the sea level around the globe. SURFEIT will thus investigate how changing snow and radiation, or surface fluxes, over the coming century will affect Antarctic snow and ice.
The international SURFEIT team will: (i) improve how polar clouds are represented in our climate models; (ii) use pre-existing, and new, observations alongside climate model output to help improve our understanding of changes in snowfall over Antarctica; (iii) ensure we can accurately predict small-scale and extreme-event weather changes; and (iv) improve how we link our earth and ice system model components together, so that we can make better predictions of when Antarctic ice may fracture, and so raise global sea level. Our work on improving snowfall and ice predictions will help us answer our overarching question 'How will changes in Antarctic surface fluxes impact global sea-level to 2100 and beyond?'
These recent extreme weather events and conditions in Antarctica have prompted fresh concern about how climate change in this remote region will impact Earth. The protection of coastlines around the world from the future rise in sea level from Antarctica requires a better understanding of how the weather of Antarctica will evolve over the coming century. Any loss of Antarctic ice mass as a result of weather changes may raise the sea level around the globe. SURFEIT will thus investigate how changing snow and radiation, or surface fluxes, over the coming century will affect Antarctic snow and ice.
The international SURFEIT team will: (i) improve how polar clouds are represented in our climate models; (ii) use pre-existing, and new, observations alongside climate model output to help improve our understanding of changes in snowfall over Antarctica; (iii) ensure we can accurately predict small-scale and extreme-event weather changes; and (iv) improve how we link our earth and ice system model components together, so that we can make better predictions of when Antarctic ice may fracture, and so raise global sea level. Our work on improving snowfall and ice predictions will help us answer our overarching question 'How will changes in Antarctic surface fluxes impact global sea-level to 2100 and beyond?'
Organisations
- British Antarctic Survey (Lead Research Organisation)
- Columbia University (Collaboration, Project Partner)
- Korea Polar Research Institute (Collaboration)
- Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (Collaboration)
- Alfred-Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research (Collaboration)
- Institute of Environmental Geosciences (Collaboration)
- University of Aveiro (Collaboration)
- Vanderbilt University (Collaboration, Project Partner)
- Cardiff University (Collaboration)
- Laboratory of Climate Sciences and the Environment (LSCE) (Collaboration)
- University of Bremen (Collaboration)
- Utrecht University (Collaboration)
- University of Colorado Boulder (Collaboration)
- University of Bergen (Collaboration)
- Finnish Meteorological Institute (Collaboration, Project Partner)
- Dalhousie University (Collaboration, Project Partner)
- IMPERIAL COLLEGE LONDON (Collaboration)
- Meteorological Office UK (Collaboration)
- Leibniz Association (Collaboration)
- Victoria University of Wellington (Collaboration, Project Partner)
- Ohio University (Collaboration, Project Partner)
- NORCE Norwegian Research Center AS (Collaboration)
- University of Washington (Collaboration)
- University of Colorado Boulder (Project Partner)
- CARDIFF UNIVERSITY (Project Partner)
- Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (Project Partner)
- Leibniz Institute for Tropospheric Research (Project Partner)
- Equadratures & Co. Limited (Project Partner)
- Imperial College London (Project Partner)
- Norwegian Research Centre (Project Partner)
- Utrecht University (Project Partner)
- University of Aveiro (Project Partner)
- Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research (Project Partner)
- Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (Project Partner)
- University of Washington (Project Partner)
- University of Bremen (Project Partner)
- Korean Polar Research Institute (Project Partner)
- Domaine University (Project Partner)
- University of Bergen (Project Partner)
- Met Office (Project Partner)
- Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace (Project Partner)
People |
ORCID iD |
| Louise Sime (Principal Investigator) |
Publications
Clemens-Sewall D
(2023)
Snow Loss Into Leads in Arctic Sea Ice: Minimal in Typical Wintertime Conditions, but High During a Warm and Windy Snowfall Event
in Geophysical Research Letters
Gong X
(2023)
Arctic warming by abundant fine sea salt aerosols from blowing snow.
in Nature geoscience
Lapere R
(2023)
The Representation of Sea Salt Aerosols and Their Role in Polar Climate Within CMIP6
in Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
Lu H
(2023)
Temperature variation in the South Orkney Islands, maritime Antarctic
in International Journal of Climatology
Lu H
(2023)
Extreme warm events in the South Orkney Islands, Southern Ocean: Compounding influence of atmospheric rivers and föhn conditions
in Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
Tschirschwitz J
(2023)
Moisture source changes of precipitation in Europe under SSP1-2.6 and SSP3-7.0 warming
| Title | WAVI Ice Sheet Model |
| Description | WAVI is a Wavelet-based, Adaptive-grid, Vertically-integrated, Ice-sheet model. See Github for details: https://github.com/RJArthern/WAVI.jl Model development is joint activity between ENSOWAIS and SURFEIT projects. |
| Type Of Material | Computer model/algorithm |
| Year Produced | 2020 |
| Provided To Others? | Yes |
| Impact | The model has recently been used to provide a training dataset for a new multifidelity approach. This work was presented at NeurIPS 2022. https://neurips.cc/Conferences/2022/ScheduleMultitrack?event=65895 |
| URL | https://github.com/RJArthern/WAVI.jl |
| Description | Assistant Professor Rachel Chang |
| Organisation | Dalhousie University |
| Country | Canada |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | Knowledge Exchange - related research topics |
| Collaborator Contribution | Knowledge Exchange - Model output from GEOS-Chem-TOMAS aerosol size-resolved microphysics simulations |
| Impact | TBD |
| Start Year | 2022 |
| Description | Dr Alison Banwell |
| Organisation | University of Colorado Boulder |
| Country | United States |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | Knowledge exchange |
| Collaborator Contribution | Knowledge exchange |
| Impact | TBD |
| Start Year | 2022 |
| Description | Dr Emilio Martinez Paneda |
| Organisation | Imperial College London |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | Knowledge exchange - Modelling data |
| Collaborator Contribution | Knowledge exchange - Modelling data |
| Impact | TBD |
| Start Year | 2022 |
| Description | Dr Gunnar Spreen |
| Organisation | University of Bremen |
| Country | Germany |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | Exchange of knowledge - Data analysis and modelling work |
| Collaborator Contribution | Exchange of knowledge - Sharing of satellite data products |
| Impact | TBD |
| Start Year | 2022 |
| Description | Dr Hans Christian Steen-Larsen |
| Organisation | University of Bergen |
| Country | Norway |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | Knowledge exchange - Development of a new isotope-in-vapour Antarctic observational network |
| Collaborator Contribution | Knowledge exchange - Development of a new isotope-in-vapour Antarctic observational network |
| Impact | TBD |
| Start Year | 2022 |
| Description | Dr Irina Gorodetskaya |
| Organisation | University of Aveiro |
| Country | Portugal |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | Knowledge exchange - observations and modelling |
| Collaborator Contribution | Knowledge exchange - observations and modelling |
| Impact | TBD |
| Start Year | 2022 |
| Description | Dr Jean-Baptiste Ladant |
| Organisation | Laboratory of Climate Sciences and the Environment (LSCE) |
| Country | France |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | Knowledge exchange - model simulations |
| Collaborator Contribution | Knowledge exchange - model simulations |
| Impact | TBD |
| Start Year | 2022 |
| Description | Dr Jennie Thomas |
| Organisation | Institute of Environmental Geosciences |
| Country | France |
| Sector | Public |
| PI Contribution | Knowledge exchange - Both CRiceS and SURFEIT focus on the impact of atmosphere-ice-ocean processes on surface fluxes of mass and energy. |
| Collaborator Contribution | Knowledge exchange - Both focus on the impact of atmosphere-ice-ocean processes on surface fluxes of mass and energy. |
| Impact | TBD |
| Start Year | 2022 |
| Description | Dr Kari Luojus |
| Organisation | Finnish Meteorological Institute |
| Country | Finland |
| Sector | Public |
| PI Contribution | Knowledge exchange |
| Collaborator Contribution | Knowledge exchange |
| Impact | TBD |
| Start Year | 2022 |
| Description | Dr Kyle Clem |
| Organisation | Victoria University of Wellington |
| Country | New Zealand |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | Knowledge exchange - Knowledge of the regional and large-scale mechanisms that cause extreme temperature and precipitation events |
| Collaborator Contribution | Knowledge exchange - Self-designed climate model simulations, atmospheric reanalyses, and observations |
| Impact | TBD |
| Start Year | 2022 |
| Description | Dr Martin Werner |
| Organisation | Alfred-Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research |
| Country | Germany |
| Sector | Private |
| PI Contribution | Knowledge exchange - Climate model simulations |
| Collaborator Contribution | Knowledge exchange - Climate model simulations |
| Impact | TBD |
| Start Year | 2022 |
| Description | Dr Mathieu Casado |
| Organisation | Laboratory of Climate Sciences and the Environment (LSCE) |
| Country | France |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | Knowledge exchange - Isotope enabled simulations alongside new isotope measurements |
| Collaborator Contribution | Knowledge exchange - To help design the development of a new network to monitor vapour isotopic composition |
| Impact | TBD |
| Start Year | 2022 |
| Description | Dr Patrick Martineau |
| Organisation | Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology |
| Country | Japan |
| Sector | Public |
| PI Contribution | Knowledge exchange - Insight into interactions between Antarctic climate variability and midlatitude variability |
| Collaborator Contribution | Knowledge exchange - Dynamics of subseasonal atmospheric variability |
| Impact | TBD |
| Start Year | 2022 |
| Description | Dr Priscilla Mooney |
| Organisation | NORCE Norwegian Research Center AS |
| Country | Norway |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | Knowledge exchange - synergies between SURFEIT and PolarRES project. |
| Collaborator Contribution | Knowledge exchange - synergies between SURFEIT and PolarRES project. |
| Impact | TBD |
| Start Year | 2022 |
| Description | Dr Ravindra Duddu |
| Organisation | Vanderbilt University |
| Country | United States |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | Knowledge exchange - Modelling data |
| Collaborator Contribution | Knowledge exchange - Modelling data |
| Impact | TBD |
| Start Year | 2022 |
| Description | Dr Richard Wood |
| Organisation | Meteorological Office UK |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | Knowledge exchange - Water tracers |
| Collaborator Contribution | Knowledge exchange - Water tracers |
| Impact | TBD |
| Start Year | 2022 |
| Description | Dr Ronny Engelmann |
| Organisation | Leibniz Association |
| Department | Leibniz Institute for Tropospheric Research |
| Country | Germany |
| Sector | Charity/Non Profit |
| PI Contribution | Knowledge exchange - Modelling results |
| Collaborator Contribution | Knowledge exchange - Measurement data |
| Impact | TBD |
| Start Year | 2022 |
| Description | Dr Ryan Fogt |
| Organisation | Ohio University |
| Country | United States |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | Knowledge exchange - Historical data |
| Collaborator Contribution | Knowledge exchange - Observationally based statistical reconstructions of the Antarctic climate |
| Impact | TBD |
| Start Year | 2022 |
| Description | Dr Sammie Buzzard |
| Organisation | Cardiff University |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | Knowledge exchange - Modelling data |
| Collaborator Contribution | Knowledge exchange - MONARCHS model |
| Impact | TBD |
| Start Year | 2022 |
| Description | Professor Jonathan Kingslake |
| Organisation | Columbia University |
| Department | Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory |
| Country | United States |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | Knowledge exchange - Modelling data |
| Collaborator Contribution | Knowledge exchange - Modelling data |
| Impact | TBD |
| Start Year | 2022 |
| Description | Professor Lyatt Jaegle |
| Organisation | University of Washington |
| Country | United States |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | Knowledge exchange - Modelling data |
| Collaborator Contribution | Knowledge exchange - Detailed GEOS-Chem model simulations |
| Impact | TBD |
| Start Year | 2022 |
| Description | Professor Michiel Van Den Broeke |
| Organisation | Utrecht University |
| Country | Netherlands |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | Knowledge exchange - Snowfall observations |
| Collaborator Contribution | Knowledge exchange - Snowfall observations |
| Impact | TBD |
| Start Year | 2022 |
| Description | Professor Seong-Joong Kim |
| Organisation | Korea Polar Research Institute |
| Country | Korea, Republic of |
| Sector | Public |
| PI Contribution | Knowledge exchange - observations and modelling |
| Collaborator Contribution | Knowledge exchange - observations and modelling |
| Impact | TBD |
| Start Year | 2022 |
| Description | Careers in science panel discussion, aimed mostly at women. Department of Physics - University Of Otago, NZ |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | Local |
| Primary Audience | Postgraduate students |
| Results and Impact | Panel discussion on careers in Antarctic science. Three senior Women, including the SURFEIT PI Louise Sime, discussed with 20 postgrads, PhD students and ECRs their experiences in Antarctica science. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
| Description | Cross-cutting workshop |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Cross-cutting workshop to discuss Surface Fluxes and Aerosol-Cloud Interactions. Around 20 people participated. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
| Description | Kick-off meeting |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Hybrid kick-off meeting for SURFEIT project. Attended by project members, as well as international project partners and the Scientific Advisory Group. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
| Description | News article on BAS website |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | News article to introduce the SURFEIT project. It was initially posted on the BAS website, and then shared across various social media channels. It was also posted to the SURFEIT website. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
| URL | https://www.bas.ac.uk/media-post/funding-to-predict-future-sea-level-rise-in-antarctica/ |