Uncertainty reduction in Models For Understanding deveLopment Applications (UMFULA)
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Manchester
Department Name: Mechanical Aerospace and Civil Eng
Abstract
Abstracts are not currently available in GtR for all funded research. This is normally because the abstract was not required at the time of proposal submission, but may be because it included sensitive information such as personal details.
Planned Impact
Who might benefit from our research? Case study participants: Rufiji river basin: the government River Basin Water Office and the public-private partnership Southern Agricultural Growth Corridor of Tanzania; southern Malawi: Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation and Water Resources, Chikwawa, Nsanje and Thoyolo District Assemblies. Case study outputs will benefit multilateral development banks and the southern African Climate Resilient Infrastructure Facility-CRIDF, who advise on infrastructural development. National and regional decision-makers in C&SA and sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) including Southern African Development Community, WATERNET, CRIDF. Programmes concerned with climate services, e.g. Global Framework for Climate Services, CCAFS, IRI, CLIVAR, ESPA, CARIAA ASSAR. Met Services in Malawi, Mozambique, South Africa and Tanzania. Universities of Zambia and Yaounde. African citizens vulnerable to climate related risks, or reliant on infrastructure/resources that may be affected by climate change (now-40 years on).
How might they benefit from our research? Through deep engagement, national and local government and private sector stakeholders in both Malawi and Tanzania will be enabled to drive a process of improved use of climate services in decision-making processes. This is critical in both case study contexts which have been selected based on the climate risk to water and agriculture infrastructure and the implications it has for economic development. The process will be supported by the Met Services whose capacity will be built to produce country-specific contextualized projections based on the outputs of climate models given their responsibility in country to do so. Active engagement of Met Services within the case study co-production will also build partnerships that extend beyond the project lifetime and can inform on-going country policy processes: for example the development of the National Adaptation Plans. The ultimate aim is that improved use of climate services in decision-making benefits African citizens, not only in Malawi and Tanzania but also further afield, through the proactive communication of robust theoretical and applied findings to decision-makers across C&SA and further disseminated for use throughout SSA. By engaging with major initiatives such as GFCS (which is piloting programmes in both case study countries) we will have outreach and potential impact well beyond the two case studies. Univ Zambia & Yaounde and African Met Services will participate in a 'big science' project involving state-of-the-art high resolution models.
As a team we have a strong track record of applied research and proven impact in climate science and adaptation across Africa. Our approach includes
Co-production of knowledge and stakeholder-driven deliberative processes as the key methodology in the case studies; in which case study participants are engaged throughout the process and have co-ownership of the process and, by definition, the findings will be targeted to be of direct applicability and achieve maximum development impact.
Embedding impact in our management structures to maximize impact over the lifetime of the project and ensure post-project sustainability
1) Impact sub-group led by KULIMA
2) Advisory Panel, high level strategic guidance, through bi-annual TCs with representation from key regional organisations, public and private sector, donors and multi-laterals (eg agreed participation of World Bank staff)
A proactive approach to collaboration with other RPCs and the CCKE, eg invitation to sit on panels to maximise synergistic findings and outreach opportunities
Seizing opportunities for development of African capacity through providing bursaries to students in C&SA countries, making it a policy for senior team members and PDRAs to give guest lectures/research training sessions during C&SA visits (at university and other organisations eg Government) and offer some remote research co-supervision.
How might they benefit from our research? Through deep engagement, national and local government and private sector stakeholders in both Malawi and Tanzania will be enabled to drive a process of improved use of climate services in decision-making processes. This is critical in both case study contexts which have been selected based on the climate risk to water and agriculture infrastructure and the implications it has for economic development. The process will be supported by the Met Services whose capacity will be built to produce country-specific contextualized projections based on the outputs of climate models given their responsibility in country to do so. Active engagement of Met Services within the case study co-production will also build partnerships that extend beyond the project lifetime and can inform on-going country policy processes: for example the development of the National Adaptation Plans. The ultimate aim is that improved use of climate services in decision-making benefits African citizens, not only in Malawi and Tanzania but also further afield, through the proactive communication of robust theoretical and applied findings to decision-makers across C&SA and further disseminated for use throughout SSA. By engaging with major initiatives such as GFCS (which is piloting programmes in both case study countries) we will have outreach and potential impact well beyond the two case studies. Univ Zambia & Yaounde and African Met Services will participate in a 'big science' project involving state-of-the-art high resolution models.
As a team we have a strong track record of applied research and proven impact in climate science and adaptation across Africa. Our approach includes
Co-production of knowledge and stakeholder-driven deliberative processes as the key methodology in the case studies; in which case study participants are engaged throughout the process and have co-ownership of the process and, by definition, the findings will be targeted to be of direct applicability and achieve maximum development impact.
Embedding impact in our management structures to maximize impact over the lifetime of the project and ensure post-project sustainability
1) Impact sub-group led by KULIMA
2) Advisory Panel, high level strategic guidance, through bi-annual TCs with representation from key regional organisations, public and private sector, donors and multi-laterals (eg agreed participation of World Bank staff)
A proactive approach to collaboration with other RPCs and the CCKE, eg invitation to sit on panels to maximise synergistic findings and outreach opportunities
Seizing opportunities for development of African capacity through providing bursaries to students in C&SA countries, making it a policy for senior team members and PDRAs to give guest lectures/research training sessions during C&SA visits (at university and other organisations eg Government) and offer some remote research co-supervision.
Organisations
People |
ORCID iD |
Julien Harou (Principal Investigator) |
Publications
Pachos K
(2022)
Trade-off informed adaptive and robust real options water resources planning
in Advances in Water Resources
Erfani T
(2021)
Adaptive water resource planning using decision-rules
in Advances in Water Resources
Geressu R
(2022)
Evaluating the sensitivity of robust water resource interventions to climate change scenarios
in Climate Risk Management
Almeida R
(2022)
Strategic planning of hydropower development: balancing benefits and socioenvironmental costs
in Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability
Geressu R
(2020)
Assessing River Basin Development Given Water-Energy-Food-Environment Interdependencies
in Earth's Future
Tomlinson J
(2020)
A water resource simulator in Python
in Environmental Modelling & Software
Gonzalez J
(2021)
Quantifying Cooperation Benefits for New Dams in Transboundary Water Systems Without Formal Operating Rules
in Frontiers in Environmental Science
Basheer M
(2021)
Collaborative management of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam increases economic benefits and resilience.
in Nature communications
Siderius, C.
(2021)
Climate variability impacts water-energy-food infrastructure performance in Eastern Africa
in One Earth
Harou J
(2020)
Water at COP25: Resilience enables climate change adaptation through better planning, governance and finance
in Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers - Water Management
Description | We are developing and applying methods in this project to plan infrastructure investments and interventions in developing countries that consider the possible future impacts of climate change. Mostly this is focused on planning new dams, where and how big to build them (or not build them), and how to operate ensembles of dams to maximize societal benefits, economic, social and environmental. The URL below is a online report published by The Nature Conservancy to promote our approach world wide for adoption by development banks. |
Exploitation Route | We impacted how the World Bank, the International Finance Organisation (IFC) and other organizations design and plan water infrastructure investments. |
Sectors | Agriculture Food and Drink Energy Environment |
URL | https://global.nature.org/content/power-of-rivers |
Description | The analysis approach and preliminary results have reported at research and policy making gatherings, in addition to internal group meetings. They have impacted ideas about the assessment of water interventions, but the results have not had a concrete impact yet on water resources decision-making, as the presults are just preliminary and have not been published yet. The infrastructure assessment approach developed in Umfula is being used in other research projects in Africa, including the WISE-UP project funded by the German Ministry of the Environment (BMUB) and our NERC-funded Water Stewardship Portal project in Kenya. |
First Year Of Impact | 2017 |
Sector | Agriculture, Food and Drink,Energy,Environment |
Impact Types | Economic Policy & public services |
Description | System scale design of hydropower systems |
Geographic Reach | Multiple continents/international |
Policy Influence Type | Citation in systematic reviews |
Impact | Better investment in new dams, better design of hydropower systems at international scale. |
URL | https://global.nature.org/content/power-of-rivers |
Description | Global Challenge Research Fund - Growing Research Capability to Meet the Challenges Faced by Developing Countries |
Amount | £9,846,864 (GBP) |
Funding ID | ES/P011373/1 |
Organisation | Economic and Social Research Council |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 09/2017 |
End | 12/2021 |
Title | WaterStrategy.org is a online platform for collaborative water management and planning. |
Description | WaterStrategy is an online collaboration platform for water-energy-food-environment analysis and planning. Its simulations help explore options and make decisions from local water supply systems to international river basins. Water models are built, updated, run, visualized, and shared in a web interface. Use cases - Assessing interventions (new infrastructure and policies) in water resource systems. - Multisector evaluation of water supply and allocation in water-energy-food-environment systems. - Climate change impact assessments. - Integrated water resources management (IWRM) studies and river basin planning studies. Features - Easy-to-use graphical user interface for water-energy-food-environment system modeling. - Cloud computing to securely manage large datasets and models on Microsoft Azure. - Track system evolution over space and time (flows, storages, abstractions, transfers, etc.) and report on system performance (reliability, resilience, vulnerability, cost, etc.). - Share models and results in a secure and controlled way within teams and with decision-makers and stakeholders. |
Type Of Technology | Webtool/Application |
Year Produced | 2021 |
Impact | Platform will be used by water managers and planners to evaluate and optimise water system interventions. |
URL | http://www.waterstrategy.org |
Company Name | Nexsys Analytics |
Description | Nexsys Analytics operates a website designed to provide water management and planning services. |
Year Established | 2022 |
Impact | The company is using FutureDAMS approaches and sofware tools on international projects, e.g., funded by the World Bank and other UK and international organisations. These projects relate to the assessment and design of water resource infrastructure investements. The company also maintains the www.waterstrategy.org portal, which is free for use. This online design tool allows simulating water resource systems in order to evaluate interventions to them (such as new dams, or new management of dams). The tools allows to investigate how water developments impact other sectors (energy, food production, environment) and vice-versa. |
Description | 19 September 2018 'Improving decision-making for hydropower', International Hydropower Association (IHA) Conference, Paris, France, at Unesco offices |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | IHA convenes hydropower professionals and policy-makers globally. this was a specialty conference about decision-making. Julien Harou gave two talks which was well received. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
URL | http://www.futuredams.org/watch-prof-julien-harou-on-how-to-improve-dam-decision-making/ |
Description | 22 November 2018 UMFULA stakeholder meeting |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | This was a project stakeholder meeting with government ministry of water employees and river basin organization members. We summarised recent work and made plans for future work and discussed how the tools and findings could be used in Tanzania currently and in future work. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
URL | http://www.futureclimateafrica.org/news/final-meeting-showcases-umfulas-compelling-4-year-research/ |
Description | Africa Water Week presentation |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Talk given at Africa Water Week in Dar Es Salam, Tanzania July 2016 on new forms of cost benefit analysis for water infrastructure |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2016 |
URL | http://africawaterweek.com/6/about/about-aww/ |
Description | Chile talk to Water Regulators |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | Seminar about UK water regulation given to Chilean regulators at the Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
Description | Contribution to COP23, Bonn, Germany Water Stream Proposal for the Water Action Day |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | Nature Based Solutions for an uncertain future? IUCN Pavilion, Bonn Zone, C.05 Thursday 9th November, 10:00 - 11:30 Bonn, COP23. This event will focus on the challenge of identifying scalable natural solutions to adapt to climate change, and how to raise the necessary financial and technical capital for natural infrastructure adaptation solutions. Presentations will be followed by active discussion with the audience. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
URL | https://cop23.unfccc.int/event/nature-based-solutions-for-an-uncertain-future |
Description | February 14-15 Resilient Water Decisions Workshop at The World Bank, Washington DC |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | An international group of experts was brought together to advise the World Bank on how to identify and support resilient water managment and planning activities and investments. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
URL | http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2016/10/21/drmhubtokyo-knowledge-program-resilient-water-su... |
Description | FutureDAMS showcases its water-energy-food-environment tool set at Central Asian practitioner International event |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | On 28th March 2022 researchers and practitioners from the FutureDAMS consortium including IWMI (the International Water Management Institute) presented their water-energy-food-environment planning & design framework to a group of Central Asia water and energy practitioners. The event showcased the analysis tool set, including an open source river basin and energy simulation model, to regional actors and sought to receive their feedback on its utility and possible regional use cases. The Water Security themed event, organised by IWMI's Central Asia office in Tashkent, attracted multiple relevant stakeholder organisations including government agencies and international and bilateral organisations from several Central Asian countries. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
URL | https://www.futuredams.org/futuredams-showcases-its-water-energy-food-environment-tool-set-at-centra... |
Description | Hydropower by Design - with The Nature Conservancy |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Work along-side The Nature Conservancy on several projects to support their international programme on hydropower by design, i.e. a programme of public policy influencing aiming to change how hydropower dams are designed and planned, moving from the consideration of individual dams to water systems with system of dams and outcomes that occur at system scale. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2016 |
URL | https://global.nature.org/content/improving-hydropower-outcomes-through-system-scale-planning-an-exa... |
Description | IWMI (International Water Management Institute) Panel for Launch of their 2021 Water Storage report |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Panel member on a major webinar for a major IWMI (International Water Management Institute) report launch. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
URL | https://www.iwmi.cgiar.org/events/storing-water-a-new-integrated-approach-for-resilient-development/ |
Description | Julien Harou Presentation at IHA World Hydropower Congress |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | UNESCO in Paris the International Hydropower Association held a meeting entitled 'Improving decision-making for hydropower'. FutureDAMS Research Director Julien Harou was an invited speaker and gave the following 10 minute presentation on the systems-scale hydropower planning approach proposed by FutureDAMS. The IHA event was followed by the first FutureDAMS international working group meeting, also held at UNESCO, where research project staff interacted with policy-makers from more than 10 international organisations that consider hydropower, river basin planning and/or energy system planning policy-making to be within their remit. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
URL | http://www.futuredams.org/watch-prof-julien-harou-on-how-to-improve-dam-decision-making/ |
Description | Julien Harou chaired a session on water-energy planning at the April 2021 Biennial Nile Development Forum |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Julien Harou chaired a session on water-energy planning at the April 2021 Biennial Nile Development Forum. https://twitter.com/UMWaterResGroup/status/1382237237371412480?cxt=HHwWgIC5jbXc2K4mAAAA |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
URL | https://nilebasin.org/nbdf/ |
Description | Keynote lecture at the EuroHPC Summit Week 2019 - PRACEdays19 international conference |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Industry/Business |
Results and Impact | This was a large 300 person+ conference about scientific computer; i delivered a plenary keynote for 30 minutes. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
URL | http://primeurmagazine.com/weekly/AE-PR-06-19-39.html |
Description | Nile Basin Initiative - Nile economic forum |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | Renowned economists from within and beyond the Nile Basin are in Entebbe, Uganda for a two-day forum aimed at taking stock and exchanging experiences in integrating economic perspectives for efficient water resources management in the Nile Basin. The forum, operating under the theme, "Dealing with economics of water resources management in a shared river basin" is organized by the NBI Secretariat with support from GIZ and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). Speaking at the opening ceremony of the Forum, Guest of Honour, Nile Technical Advisory Committee chairperson, Florence Adongo, in her remarks, appreciated the idea of the forum in the region. She was represented by Jackson, Twinomujuni, Commissioner for International and Transboundary Water Affairs in Uganda's Ministry of Water and Environment. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
URL | http://www.nilebasin.org/index.php/new-and-events/143-nbi-economists-forum-opens-in-entebbe |
Description | Nile Basin Initiative - Nile regional forum |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | Nile Development forum presentation about FutureDAMS and conglict prevention in water resources projects. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
URL | http://nbdf.nilebasin.org/ |
Description | Presentation at World Water Week, STockholm |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | 2016 STockholm Wold Water WEek session: Options for Water Security: How Should We Decide? Convenor(s): International Water Management Institute; Overseas Development Institute; Julien Harou, guess speaker and panel member |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2016 |
URL | http://programme.worldwaterweek.org/event/5936 |
Description | The World Bank training programme on Hydropower and climate change |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | Prof. Harou attended and presented a series of World bank sponsored events on hydropower and climate change. Also, this publication was produced: The World Bank (2016), "Toward Climate-Resilient Hydropower in South Asia", Live Wire publication No. 60, The World Bank Group. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2015 |
URL | http://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/energy/publication/livewire |
Description | World Bank - Resilient Water Decisions talk |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | The World Bank Office of the Chief Economist (GGSCE), Sustainable Development Vice Presidency Global Water Practice (GWAGP) Korea Green Growth Trust Fund (KGGTF) WORKSHOP February 14th and 15th, 2018 in Washington, D.C., USA 1. WORKSHOP OBJECTIVE The purpose of the workshop is to share the experiences of the World Bank and similar water management and development organizations in dealing with climate and other uncertainties towards resilient water-related investments. The challenges and gaps in terms of practices, governance, finance, and other key factors being faced in the practice of decision making for planning, design and operation of water-related projects will be discussed. The workshop will also provide an opportunity to learn from practitioners and members of the academic and consulting worlds about the latest advances in this field, including how to integrate existing and new tools within this framework and how best to advance and mainstream these approaches. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
Description | World Water Week stand |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | World Water Week, Stockholm, 25-30 August 2019 Julien Harou and Anthony Hurford attended Stockholm World Water Week to present FutureDAMS research. The theme for 2019 was Water for Society: Including all, which drew attention to broad solutions to humanity's major interlinked challenges and brought focus to good water governance. The FutureDAMS booth was well attended by people from a variety of international organisations with interests in water-energy-food-environment systems. We demonstrated progress to date on FutureDAMS online modelling and interactive visualisation tools and showed participants how the tools were being used on real case-studies. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |