Climate of the LAst Millennium (CLAM): An Integrated Data-Model Approach to Reconstruct and Interpret Annual Variability in North Atlantic Circulation
Lead Research Organisation:
CARDIFF UNIVERSITY
Department Name: School of Earth and Ocean Sciences
Abstract
The ocean circulation of the North Atlantic is variable and pivotal in controlling regional and global climate. This variability occurs both naturally, and it is anticipated, in response to anthropogenic activity. Internal and forced natural variability in this system has so far largely been characterised in terrestrial archives and models rather than in the real ocean. It is critical that we understand the magnitude, timescale, drivers and impacts of this variability if we are to correctly attribute observed trends in the North Atlantic circulation, and develop robust early warning systems of, and plan adaptation to, future change. In CLAM we aim to utilise a network of robustly calibrated and verified absolutely dated sclerochronological proxy archives from NW Scotland, N. Iceland and the Gulf of Maine, together with high-resolution climate models, to investigate the mechanisms and forcings driving variability in the circulation patterns of the North Atlantic over the last millennium. This proposal is a resubmission (NE/M002160/1, Jan 2014, graded 8) in which we address minor concerns highlighted by the reviewers, notably we: (i) eliminate fieldwork risks - having completed all necessary sample collection using independent funding; (ii) further-demonstrate the powerful nature of the methodologies and potential findings though additional preliminary model-proxy analyses; (iii) greater societal impact via the development of a deeper collaboration with the Met Office Hadley Centre, and (iv) deliver improved value for money, through associated cost savings.
Planned Impact
Who will benefit, and how, from this research?
i) A major beneficiary of knowledge arising from this research is anticipated to be the climate modelling community who will be able to use our proxy-observations and model investigation to assess and improve the performance of models used for future climate prediction. Engaging effectively with this group is the main route for the proposed project to achieve societal impact.
ii) A review of the case for continuation of the RAPID 26.5N time series will take place in 2018. The proposed work will feed into this review by providing the first robust reconstruction of variability into which the recently observed change can be placed. Using this information it will be possible to begin asking over what timescale 26.5N observations may need to be made before robust trends can be identified.
iii) Other potential beneficiaries include the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and policy makers who rely on climate model predictions to determine policy; our study provides constraints with which to test the ability of climate models, ultimately helping policy makers assess the reliability and performance of climate models. Our proposal has direct policy relevance for national and international climate change programmes, and will help provide society with the information it requires for managing the future global environment. Better understanding natural climate variability will be of use to other stakeholders (such as environmental organisations and private corporations) that make use of future predictions of climate change derived from global climate models for forward planning and strategy decisions over a range of timescales.
iv) The general public and student communities (at both secondary School and University levels) will benefit from this work by the provision of an increased understanding of the Earth's climate system.
To ensure that the outputs of CLAM both maintain a stakeholder focus, and are ultimately utilised to improve Met Office modelling capacity (and more widely), a series of workshops will be held by the Met Office to discuss techniques and findings.
Arguably, the main function of universities is to create new knowledge and to transmit this to the students and also to the general public. CLAM will take advantage of the existing exhibition infrastructure that was established by the Bangor group in 2010 for the Royal Societies 350th year Summer Science Exhibition at the South Bank Centre London. The exhibit was designed to facilitate the communication of biological aging and palaeoclimate research to audiences ranging from very young children through to Fellows of the Royal Society. CLAM seeks to work in collaboration with the National Museum Cardiff to utilise and enhance the existing infrastructure of the exhibit by updating its general content and modifying the displays enabling it to become an unmanned standalone museum exhibit. This entails the replacement of the microscope and digital imaging system with a touch screen interactive "virtual microscope" system that facilitates the user to visualise the growth lines present in a number of shells under various magnifications easily without the need of supervision. Additionally this resource would be made available through the CLAM website to supplement the already available interactive educational games.
CLAM will interact with the local schools and colleges through open days, Science Festivals and by conducting presentations and interactive learning sessions directly in the schools and colleges. These interactive learning sessions will take advantage of the online virtual microscope and interactive games allowing the students to examine the shell and proxy archives, construct their own sclerochronologies and investigate past climate change.
i) A major beneficiary of knowledge arising from this research is anticipated to be the climate modelling community who will be able to use our proxy-observations and model investigation to assess and improve the performance of models used for future climate prediction. Engaging effectively with this group is the main route for the proposed project to achieve societal impact.
ii) A review of the case for continuation of the RAPID 26.5N time series will take place in 2018. The proposed work will feed into this review by providing the first robust reconstruction of variability into which the recently observed change can be placed. Using this information it will be possible to begin asking over what timescale 26.5N observations may need to be made before robust trends can be identified.
iii) Other potential beneficiaries include the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and policy makers who rely on climate model predictions to determine policy; our study provides constraints with which to test the ability of climate models, ultimately helping policy makers assess the reliability and performance of climate models. Our proposal has direct policy relevance for national and international climate change programmes, and will help provide society with the information it requires for managing the future global environment. Better understanding natural climate variability will be of use to other stakeholders (such as environmental organisations and private corporations) that make use of future predictions of climate change derived from global climate models for forward planning and strategy decisions over a range of timescales.
iv) The general public and student communities (at both secondary School and University levels) will benefit from this work by the provision of an increased understanding of the Earth's climate system.
To ensure that the outputs of CLAM both maintain a stakeholder focus, and are ultimately utilised to improve Met Office modelling capacity (and more widely), a series of workshops will be held by the Met Office to discuss techniques and findings.
Arguably, the main function of universities is to create new knowledge and to transmit this to the students and also to the general public. CLAM will take advantage of the existing exhibition infrastructure that was established by the Bangor group in 2010 for the Royal Societies 350th year Summer Science Exhibition at the South Bank Centre London. The exhibit was designed to facilitate the communication of biological aging and palaeoclimate research to audiences ranging from very young children through to Fellows of the Royal Society. CLAM seeks to work in collaboration with the National Museum Cardiff to utilise and enhance the existing infrastructure of the exhibit by updating its general content and modifying the displays enabling it to become an unmanned standalone museum exhibit. This entails the replacement of the microscope and digital imaging system with a touch screen interactive "virtual microscope" system that facilitates the user to visualise the growth lines present in a number of shells under various magnifications easily without the need of supervision. Additionally this resource would be made available through the CLAM website to supplement the already available interactive educational games.
CLAM will interact with the local schools and colleges through open days, Science Festivals and by conducting presentations and interactive learning sessions directly in the schools and colleges. These interactive learning sessions will take advantage of the online virtual microscope and interactive games allowing the students to examine the shell and proxy archives, construct their own sclerochronologies and investigate past climate change.
Publications
Reynolds DJ
(2016)
Annually resolved North Atlantic marine climate over the last millennium.
in Nature communications
Román-González A
(2017)
Analysis of ontogenetic growth trends in two marine Antarctic bivalves Yoldia eightsi and Laternula elliptica: Implications for sclerochronology
in Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology
Reynolds D
(2017)
Biological and Climate Controls on North Atlantic Marine Carbon Dynamics Over the Last Millennium: Insights From an Absolutely Dated Shell-Based Record From the North Icelandic Shelf
in Global Biogeochemical Cycles
Reynolds D
(2017)
Reconstructing North Atlantic marine climate variability using an absolutely-dated sclerochronological network
in Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology
Reynolds D
(2018)
Isolating and Reconstructing Key Components of North Atlantic Ocean Variability From a Sclerochronological Spatial Network
in Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology
Black BA
(2019)
The revolution of crossdating in marine palaeoecology and palaeoclimatology.
in Biology letters
Reynolds D
(2019)
An integrated carbon and oxygen isotope approach to reconstructing past environmental variability in the northeast Atlantic Ocean
in Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology
Moffa-Sánchez P
(2019)
Variability in the Northern North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans Across the Last Two Millennia: A Review
in Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology
Description | Owing to the lack of absolutely dated oceanographic information before the modern instrumental period, there is currently significant debate as to the role played by North Atlantic Ocean dynamics in previous climate transitions (for example, Medieval Climate Anomaly-Little Ice Age, MCA-LIA). Here we present analyses of a millennial-length, annually resolved and absolutely dated marine d18O archive. We interpret our record of oxygen isotope ratios from the shells of the long-lived marine bivalve Arctica islandica (d18O-shell), from the North Icelandic shelf, in relation to seawater density variability and demonstrate that solar and volcanic forcing coupled with ocean circulation dynamics are key drivers of climate variability over the last millennium. During the pre-industrial period (AD 1000-1800) variability in the sub-polar North Atlantic leads changes in Northern Hemisphere surface air temperatures at multi-decadal timescales, indicating that North Atlantic Ocean dynamics played an active role in modulating the response of the atmosphere to solar and volcanic forcing. |
Exploitation Route | The findings will be of use to climate modellers in order to test simulations of the last millennium. |
Sectors | Education |
URL | https://theconversation.com/what-500-year-old-clams-can-tell-us-about-climate-change-69926 |
Description | The findings of this research have been widely reported in the media (Altmetric Score 233; http://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms13502/metrics). This included coverage on front page of USA Today print edition. |
First Year Of Impact | 2017 |
Sector | Environment |
Impact Types | Societal |
Description | BBC Radio 4 'Inside Science' |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press) |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
Results and Impact | Dr David Reynolds Discussed the 'Ultra' project results and sclerochronology |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2016 |
Description | BBC Radio Wales 'Science Cafe' |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press) |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
Results and Impact | Discussion of Climate Change and how we use clams to reconstruct past ocean variability - very good feedback from show |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
URL | http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b089dvb4 |
Description | Interactive exhibit 'Arctica Icelandica - the longest lived animal on Earth' at the 2018 National Eisteddfod of Wales |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Four day interactive exhibit 'Arctica Icelandica - the longest lived animal on Earth' at the 2018 National Eisteddfod of Wales, Cardiff. Over >2000 interactions with general public/school children that increased awareness of climate change and use of sclerochronology to investigate past climate variability. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
URL | https://eisteddfod.wales/gallery/cardiff-2018 |
Description | Ocean in motion: currents, conveyors and climate change |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | 40 people attended at presentation as part of the 'Volvo Ocean Race' Cardiff Stopover ABP Public Education Programme. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
URL | https://www.cardiff.ac.uk/news/view/1182611-volvo-ocean-race |
Description | Pint of Science, Cardiff UK |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Local |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | 'Pint of Science' Outreach talk and debate by team member David Reynolds |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
URL | https://pintofscience.co.uk/events/cardiff |
Description | Summer Minds lecture series, Oriel y Parc Gallery and Visitor Centre, St Davids, Pembrokeshire |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Lecture 'Ocean in Motion: Currents, Conveyors, and Climate Change' Summer Minds lecture and debate. Invitation to return to talk to Ysgol Penrhyn Dewi and taker part in public debate in May 2019. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
URL | https://www.pembrokeshirecoast.wales/default.asp?PID=67&NewsItem=1846 |
Description | What 500-year-old clams can tell us about climate change - the Conversation |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | The Conversation - Publication describing the importance/impact of the DOI: 10.1038/ncomms13502 - This paper generated a huge amount of publicity and blog discussion. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
URL | https://theconversation.com/what-500-year-old-clams-can-tell-us-about-climate-change-69926 |