Development of targeted vaccination strategies during disease elimination

Analysis of the dynamics of global infectious disease are typically focussed on the initial stages of
an outbreak. At the other side of the spectrum, how infections die out and in which groups, is less
well studied but increasingly important in order to develop intervention strategies. This project
will conduct quantitative analysis of large datasets from polio and measles outbreaks in the
African continent from 2003-present, through collaboration with the World Health Organization
and Medicins Sans Frontiers. The analysis will explore how the relative incidence by age,
vaccination status and "high-risk" groups change during an outbreak and assess the impact of
previous vaccination schedules. From this data, a mathematical model will be developed that can
evaluate alternative vaccination strategies for future outbreaks. This interdisciplinary research will
provide an opportunity to directly compare outbreak dynamics between polio and measles and
develop new strategies that will translate into improved health interventions in developing
countries. The student will develop statistical, mathematical and epidemiological skills, with
training through MSc modules and external courses. Furthermore, the project will hone
interdisciplinary skills for the development and evaluation of intervention strategies in developing
countries.
This project directly fits in with the MRC's Strategic Aim 3: Going Global: through collaborating
directly with internationally-renowned non-governmental organisations and tackling important
infectious diseases in developing countries. Furthermore, this interdisciplinary project aligns with
all three MRC key themes: Global Infectious Disease, Quantitative Skills for Large Data Sets and
Evaluating Complex Interventions.
This studentship will provide training in the following key skill areas:
1. Quantitative skills
2
Through statistical analysis of large datasets that will incorporate state-ofthe-art
techniques to account for unobserved processes
Development of mathematical models for transmission of infectious
diseases
2. Interdisciplinary skills
Interface with social sciences and public policy: incorporating social variables
into analysis, such as when identifying high-risk demographic groups and
understanding public health determinants implicated in vaccination coverage
in developing countries
Interface with clinical considerations: understanding the biological mechanism
and efficacy of different polio and measles vaccines, classifying the
determinants of vaccine effectiveness in different settings and determinants of
population 'herd' immunity
3. Whole organism physiology
Analysing distinct outbreaks through the use of phylogenetic analyses to infer
relatedness of cases and how population connectivity may influence
transmission