Exploring External Influences on Sentence Severity Across England and Wales

In recent years, England and Wales have undergone a process of substantial inflation in sentence severity. Previous studies have emphasised this by examining the factors that might be responsible, such as the introduction of sentencing guidelines and political discourse relating to increased punitiveness. This project will investigate a broader range of factors that have not yet received much attention in the existing literature. It will examine influences including changes in the mix of cases processed through the courts, magistrate authority and public opinion, all of which potentially have substantial ramifications on effective and fair sentencing.
This project will use court data available from the Ministry of Justice to increase our understanding of the impact that external influences play in sentencing severity throughout the English and Welsh courts. The methods implemented, including multivariable regression models and time-series regression analyses, will identify not just potential external influences on sentence severity, but also disaggregate their influence on particular offence types.
This project will directly contribute to advancing our comprehension of effective sentencing policies and practices - a core goal of this project's external partner the Sentencing Academy. Moreover, the findings of this project can provide clear evidence on the effects of external influences on sentencing severity for bodies such as the Sentencing Council and the House of Commons Justice Committee. Notably, the UK Government's 2020 White Paper contends that an efficient criminal justice system is the cornerstone of a free, just, and secure society, with sentencing playing a critical role, this project is dedicated to precisely this crucial aspect.