What are the Consequences of Disease Transmission Heterogeneities for Disease Outbreaks?

We are currently only too aware of the ever-increasing concerns about emerging infectious diseases in humans. Emerging diseases are also a major conservation concern for many wildlife. To understand, predict and manage these outbreaks requires a sophisticated understanding of the individual-level drivers of transmission.

Pathogen transmission is the fundamental process that drives the emergence and spread of new infectious diseases. Transmission is typically conceptualised as a 'mass action' process, where homogenous groups of susceptible and infected individuals encounter each other at random. But the reality is quite different; due to genetic, phenotypic and environmental reasons, not all individuals are equally susceptible and not all infected individuals are equally infectious. Quantifying these sources of variation, and understanding their consequences for disease emergence, spread and control is vital if we are to develop effective disease mitigation strategies.

The aims of the project are:
1) Develop theory to predict the consequences of heterogeneity in the disease transmission process.
2) Use this theory to build models of disease emergence, spread and control.
3) Test these predictions experimentally using an invertebrate empirical system under a range of environmental scenarios in the lab and field.

The project will combine theoretical and empirical aspects of infectious disease ecology to provide insight into how heterogeneities in infectiousness, susceptibility and contact rate influence the spread and impact of infectious diseases.