Southern Africa's hydro-economy and water security (SAHEWS)

Lead Research Organisation: London School of Economics and Political Science
Department Name: Grantham Research Inst on Climate Change

Abstract

Water security in southern Africa encapsulates global pressures on water: rapid population growth, chronic and drought-induced food shortages, growing water scarcity and energy security problems coincident with rising demand, transboundary and regional allocation issues, and a strongly variable climate that will likely become drier and more variable in the future. These challenges are exacerbated by political, institutional and economic factors, including limited management and regulatory capacity, and highly inequitable access to reliable potable water. This research seeks to improve understanding of the drivers of short to medium term hydro-meteorological variability, its socioeconomic consequences and develop approaches for improved water resources management in the region.
The proposed collaboration addresses important knowledge gaps in the effective management of water security. Hydro-meteorological variability is large and spatially extensive such that prolonged floods and droughts cause macroscale socioeconomic impacts yet these are poorly understood. Seasonal forecasts show greater skill for southern Africa relative to many other regions but reliability and skill remain important constraints. This project will assess and refine seasonal forecasts for water management, model the socioeconomic consequences of hydro-meteorological variability and develop knowledge transfer techniques, such as Info-Gap Decision Theory for supporting water management under conditions of high uncertainty. A co-design process will engage with two case studies to develop decision-relevant indicators, and high level dissemination and up-scaling will occur through regional workshops with strategic decision-makers.

Planned Impact

Impact activities are comprised as follows;

1. High level knowledge exchange through targeted workshop activities
The stakeholder co-design of the research is a central aspect of the project. Two integral workshops will be held: an inception/co-design workshop at the outset and a results/upscaling workshop towards the end.
Inception/co-design workshop; day 1 will raise awareness about the research, demonstrate the methods and tools available through the team's expertise and showcase examples of their application. Day 2 will involve more specific co-design of the research with selected case study partners.
Results/up-scaling workshop; will give opportunity for the team to present the main results and both case studies. It will provide a forum for the stakeholders to interrogate the research outputs and help identify opportunities to scale up applications within the region and, if appropriate, further afield. The results of the discussion will be written up as a policy brief to capture the best opportunities and ensure the project legacy continues beyond the period of funding.
The team is experienced in high level policy engagement. In recognition of the importance of this aim the team is supported by an experienced Impact Adviser and facilitator with an extensive career in the private sector (including in Africa) and politics and member of the UK Parliamentary International Development Select Committee.
To achieve regional impact we will hold at least one workshop in Gaborane (Botswana) which is the location of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) Secretariat Head Office.

2. Co-design and collaboration with end-users through case studies
End-user engagement to achieve impact is integral to our project design. We have letters of support from two (summarised below), however, we wish to keep this flexible and will retain options to work with other high level stakeholders to ensure maximum innovation and potential for impact.
Direct collaboration with end-users will help strengthen capacity, foster links between researchers and practitioners and policy.

FANRPAN (Food, Agriculture and Natural Resources Policy Analysis Network) is a regional policy research and advocacy network whose operations are informed by major regional policy frameworks and processes in Southern Africa.
South Africa Water Research Commission (WRC). The role of South Africa in SADC and NEPAD (New Partnership for Africa's Development), especially with regard to water resource and water supply and sanitation issues, poses new challenges and requires new initiatives which are within the mandate of the WRC.

3. Academic papers
Academic impact is planned through a series of papers in high impact journals, identified to capture the interdisciplinary dimensions of the work.

4. Policy briefs
We will produce insights targeted at policy audiences through IFPRI's Policy Briefs and Project Notes series. These have a wide reach, being widely read across the developing world. Two outputs of this type will be produced during the project. We will use the Inception workshop to receive guidance on content, structure and audience and seek co-authorship with relevant stakeholders from the region.

5. Online and other media outlets
Each institution will upload a SAHEWS set of web pages to their main website.
Team members will be encouraged to record short vlogs for their own and other relevant websites.
The copyright of new datasets generated, will be in accordance with Belmont (or respective National Research Councils) Research Data Policy. Final output datasets will be prepared for sharing according to Belmont (or respective National Research Councils) Research Data Policy. Our aim is to produce datasets that will serve as a foundation for further research.
 
Description Our research has focused on the linkages between climate and the water-energy-food nexus in southern Africa. Our analysis has highlighted that physical and socioeconomic exposure to climate is high in many areas and in crucial economic sectors. Spatial interdependence is also high, driven for example, by the regional extent of many climate extremes and river basins and aquifers that span national boundaries. The majority of climate models project decreases in annual precipitation for southern Africa, typically by as much as 20% by the 2080s. Impact models suggest these changes would propagate into reduced water availability and crop yields. Recognition of spatial and sectoral interdependencies should inform policies, institutions and investments for enhancing water, energy and food security. Three key political and economic instruments could be strengthened for this purpose; the Southern African Development Community, the Southern African Power Pool, and trade of agricultural products amounting to significant transfers of embedded water. We have recently published a paper that took some time to complete - it was published in Nature Energy and we found by mapping the distribution of present and planned hydropower dams in eastern and southern Africa there were risks of disruption to electricity supply across multiple dam sites due to rainfall variability (drought).
Exploitation Route Our work on water and energy is continuing and we have papers published that we hope will help raise awareness of links between climate and electricity production. This awareness should feed into improved management of hydropower facilities in relation to climate extremes.
Sectors Energy

Environment

Government

Democracy and Justice

URL http://www.lse.ac.uk/GranthamInstitute/news/climate-is-critical-in-southern-africas-water-energy-food-nexus/
 
Description The most recent paper published in Nature Energy led to two presentations to UK Government staff (in DFID), the paper was picked up in several media outlets (The Conversation, SciDev.Net).
First Year Of Impact 2017
Sector Energy,Government, Democracy and Justice
Impact Types Societal

Policy & public services

 
Description International Water Management Institute 
Organisation International Water Management Institute (IWMI)
Country Sri Lanka 
Sector Charity/Non Profit 
PI Contribution IWMI has an office in Pretoria. SAHEWS project funds were used to support an intern to work with IWMI on a stakeholder engagement project looking at commercial farmers' groundwater management and their options for using seasonal climate forecasting in the Dendron area of the Limpopo river basin. Mentoring by skype and email, written support to design and writing up of research project, advice on design of stakeholder (commercial farmer) interactions.
Collaborator Contribution Hosting intern, providing support on training, research design and fieldwork, organising and facilitating stakeholder interactions (workshops, focus groups, interviews). Mentoring and fieldwork support. Allowing access to expert contacts in South Africa.
Impact Papers submitted and presented at conference; Fallon, A., Villhoth, K., Ebrahim, G., Lankford, B. and Conway, D. (Submitted) Groundwater Management and Options for Using Seasonal Climate Forecasting: Perceptions from Dendron, South Africa. Hydrological Sciences Journal. Fallon, A., Villholth, K., Ebrahim, G., Conway, C., Lankford, B., (2015). Groundwater Management and Options for Using Seasonal Climate Forecasting: Perceptions from Dendron, South Africa. Paper presented at the 14th Biennial Groundwater Conference: From Theory to Action, Groundwater Division of the Geological Society of South Africa, Muldersdrift, South Africa. Multi-disciplinary - hydrogeology, geography, agriculture and climate services
Start Year 2014
 
Description Kulima Integrated Development Solutions - Knowledge brokering for practitioner use of seasonal forecasts 
Organisation Kulima Integrated Development Solutions
Country South Africa 
Sector Charity/Non Profit 
PI Contribution Written and discussion support to design and writing up of stakeholder engagement activities.
Collaborator Contribution Organising and facilitating stakeholder interactions (conducting interviews, writing paper and SAHEWS final workshop presentation)
Impact Vincent, K., Cull, T., Dalin, C.A., Deryng, D., Archer van Garderen, E., Fallon, A., Dorling, S., Conway, D., Dorling, S., and Landman, W. (Submitted) Seasonal forecasts; perennial problems? User perspectives on the 2014-15 season in South Africa. Climate Risk Management. Multi-disciplinary - geography, agriculture, water resources, disaster risk and climate services
Start Year 2014
 
Description Research collaboration Humboldt University of Berlin 
Organisation Humboldt University of Berlin
Country Germany 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution The partner has been fully engaged as member of SAHEWS, including joining our project inception workshop, teleconferences, and research planning. The PhD research is directly related to SAHEWS objectives - the SAHEWS PI Conway is acting on the student's advisory panel.
Collaborator Contribution PhD studentship has been allocated to the project. The partner is fully engaged as member of SAHEWS, including teleconferences, research planning. The PhD research is directly related to SAHEWS objectives.
Impact Engaging with several stakeholders on research design, including; DUCT (Duzi Umgeni Conservation Trust): assistance with field work, University of KwaZulu Natal: collaboration with David Clark on uncertainty analysis of the ACRU Model, and KwaZulu Natal Wildlife Emzevelo: collaboration with Boyd Escott (GIS Analyst), exchange of spatial data for decision and planning support modelling. Academic presentation; Lebek, K. & T. Krueger. 2014. Supporting robust decision-making under severe uncertainty in adaptive water management in the Mvoti catchment, South Africa. KOSMOS Workshop "Contesting Urban Metabolisms", Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Germany, 04.08.2014. - with participants from University of Pretoria & University of Western Cape
Start Year 2014
 
Description Adaptation Futures 2018 presentation on "Climate risks and multi-scale resilience assessments in the hydropower sector: insight from southern and eastern Africa" (Conway) 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Declan Conway presented results from two projects on hydropower in southern and Eastern Africa, which are leveraged funding from CCCEP at Adaptation Futures conference in Cape Town, South Africa.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
 
Description Article on SciDev.net relating to Nature Energy paper (doi:10.1038/s41560-017-0037-4) 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact SciDev picked up a press release distributed about Nature Energy paper (doi:10.1038/s41560-017-0037-4). The resulting news article was covered by SciDev sub-Saharan Africa desk and separately by the SciDev global desk.(Links: https://www.scidev.net/sub-saharan-africa/climate-change/news/africa-s-planned-dams-could-disrupt-electricity-supply.html and https://www.scidev.net/global/policy/news/hydropower-could-supply-africa-s-entire-power-needs-.html)
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
URL https://www.scidev.net/global/policy/news/hydropower-could-supply-africa-s-entire-power-needs-.html
 
Description Article op-ed in The Conversation (linked to Nature Energy paper: doi:10.1038/s41560-017-0037-4) 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact Professor Conway worked with The Conversation (Africa desk) to produce an op-ed for The Conversation website linked to the publication of Nature Energy paper (doi:10.1038/s41560-017-0037-4). The article was published on The Conversation (Africa desk and the UK) (Link: https://theconversation.com/new-dams-in-africa-could-add-risk-to-power-supplies-down-the-line-89789)
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
URL https://theconversation.com/new-dams-in-africa-could-add-risk-to-power-supplies-down-the-line-89789
 
Description Blog featured on the CCCEP website relating to Nature Energy paper (doi: 10.1038/s41560-017-0037-4) 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Professor Conway produced a blog for the CCCEP website relating to his Nature Energy paper (doi:10.1038/s41560-017-0037-4).
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
URL https://www.cccep.ac.uk/news/plans-new-hydropower-dams-eastern-southern-africa-increase-risk-disrupt...
 
Description Conference presentation Water-Energy-Food Nexus in Bonn 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Talk generated some questions and follow-up email correspondence

Talk generated follow-up email correspondence,
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Conference presentation World Weather Open Science Conference 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Talk generated questions and discussion

Talk generated interest and some email follow-up
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description DFID seminar on decision-making under climate uncertainty 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Declan Conway was invited to speak at a seminar in DFID on decision-making under climate uncertainty. He spoke in particular of the work undertaken under the UMFULA project.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
 
Description DFID water-infrastructure advisers retreat 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Declan Conway presented at this retreat on climate, power and load shedding in Africa. This led to a good discussion and interest the the work. It also led to a further invitation to DFID Tanzania in January 2018.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
 
Description Discussions and interviews with practitioners and experts on seasonal forecasting and agriculture/water management in South Africa. 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Purpose - interviews with range of practitioners, raising awareness of seasonal forecasting, discussing strengths and weaknesses of adopting new management approaches.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
 
Description Engagement focused publication; The water cycle in a changing climate. In 7th World Water Forum, Words into Action report 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact An "engagement" article rather than new research. It is the first article in the flagship publication for the delegates of the 7th World Water Forum, held in South Korea. There were about 20-35,000 delegates expected from 190 countries, the most significant multi-stakeholder event for the water and sanitation sector. These range from decision-makers, planners, and policy-makers, to engineers, technical innovators and NGOs. It also goes to a further 25,000 water and sanitation industry profe
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
URL http://issuu.com/peterantell/docs/wia_wwf7/17?e=0
 
Description Grantham Research Institute Website Comment on Climate and Southern Africa's water-energy-food nexus 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Grantham Research Institute Website Comment on Climate and Southern Africa's water-energy-food nexus - uploaded to coincide with publication of review article in Nature Climate Change.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
URL http://www.lse.ac.uk/GranthamInstitute/news/climate-is-critical-in-southern-africas-water-energy-foo...
 
Description Mid-Season climate correction and assessment meeting/SAHEWS final workshop 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Mid-Season climate correction and assessment meeting/SAHEWS final workshop, January 2016, University of Pretoria, Dept. of Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorology. SAHEWS co-funded the workshop with support from University of Pretoria and ACCESS - The Applied Centre for Climate and Earth System Science. Two workshop presentations were based on results of SAHEWS research.
Purpose - to assess 2015/16 summer forecast performance relative to actual events and to consider what the parameters and envelope of variability for the rest of the summer season and next season are predicted. To review ongoing impacts and response to the summer 2015-16 drought event.
Impact - bringing together range of academics and practitioners to share real-time information on the evolving drought situation in South and southern Africa, raising awareness of potential to forecast such events and improve management response. SAHEWS presenters invited to attend and present at a subsequent users' workshop in Pietermaritzburg
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
 
Description Oxford University Water Security 2015 International Conference (Conway) 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact The purpose was to share information, stimulate thinking and improve understanding of other's thinking.
Impact: Email follow-up with junior researchers, contact established with researchers at Oxford University working on seasonal forecasting with follow-up invitation to speak at a workshop.
Most important impact - Raising awareness of UMFULA and improve understanding of approaches to use of climate information as promoted through FCFA
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
URL http://www.watersecurity2015.org/
 
Description Press release (for Nature Energy paper doi:10.1038/s41560-017-0037-4) 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact A press release was distributed to coincide with the publication of Nature Energy paper (doi:10.1038/s41560-017-0037-4). The press release was sent to a small selection of development press and those writing about energy in Africa. The press release with an accompanying pitch was send to SciDev.net and The Conversation Africa desk. The press release was reported on.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
URL https://www.cccep.ac.uk/news/plans-new-hydropower-dams-eastern-southern-africa-increase-risk-disrupt...
 
Description Research co-design with stakeholders 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact During 2014 we have been engaging with several stakeholders on research design, including; Umgeni Water (private utility); with DUCT (Duzi Umgeni Conservation Trust): assistance with field work, University of KwaZulu Natal: collaboration with David Clark on uncertainty analysis of the ACRU Model, and KwaZulu Natal Wildlife Emzevelo: collaboration with Boyd Escott (GIS Analyst), exchange of spatial data for decision and planning support modelling.

Our research is informing these stakeholders' activities.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description SAHEWS Inception and stakeholder workshop 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Project inception and stakeholder co-design workshop. November 19th 2013 CSIR, Pretoria. External participants included Food, Agriculture and Natural Resources Policy Analysis Network (FANRPAN); the World Wildlife Fund; Pegasys; ESKOM (public electricity utility), Umgeni Water (private utility); Aurecon (consultancy with work on economic impacts of climate change); and South Africa's Water Research Commission. The workshop involved South African private, public and NGO stakeholders for deliberation of the research project and to identify a series of potential case studies and endusers of the research project. Workshop generated considerable follow-up discussion and email, and initiated some ongoing collaboration.

Workshop generated considerable follow-up discussion and email, and initiated some ongoing collaboration.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description SAHEWS project flyer disseminated 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Some email correspondence

Use of flyer has led to ongoing correspondence about our research
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Seasonal forecasting needs-analysis workshop with six commercial farmers. Conducted in Dendron, Limpopo, South Africa 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Industry/Business
Results and Impact Purpose - gaining an understanding of groundwater issues in the area with regard to agriculture, and the use (and potential future use) of seasonal forecasts as a component of groundwater management. Raised awareness of seasonal forecasting technology, discussed strengths and weaknesses of adopting new management approaches. Most important impact - follow-up visit to farmers to present results and disseminate advisory material
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
 
Description Workshop on Hydrological Forecasting Systems 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Workshop event in South Africa designed to assess potential for greater use of seasonal forecast products - academic and practitioner, including South African Weather Service, Department of Water and Sanitation, Agricultural Research Council, ACCESS - The African Collaborative Centre for Earth System Science. The workshop led to a decision to hold a mid-season national workshop in January 2016, due to ongoing impacts of El Niño associated drought, follow-up email contact with academics and practitioners
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015