Mathematical modelling of oral microbiome resilience

Maintenance of oral health is essential. It is known that the microbiome, host response, and human behaviours (e.g. tooth brushing) play an essential role in maintaining oral health. It is also essential that consumer products that contact the oral microbiome do not adversely impact it. However, the oral microbiome is a highly complex system, with considerable diversity between individual people.

The aim of this project is to develop a mathematical model to characterise oral microbiome resilience, and to use the model to identify factors predictive of dysbiosis/stability of the oral microbiome1,2. Such a description would be key to determine functions of the microbiome which need to be protected to ensure consumer health as part of microbiological risk assessments. The model will be calibrated with metagenomics and metatranscriptomics data from a longitudinal clinical of experimental gingivitis currently being carried out in NJ's laboratory at the University of Newcastle in partnership with Unilever (data available Spring 2023). This is an ideal experimental system to study resilience as it is at the reversible stage of disease that may lead to irreversible periodontitis. The model will be further supported with existing data from the literature3.