Exit, Voice or Accommodation?: white working-class responses to ethnic change in Britain

In the past decade in Britain, the 'white working-class' has been the focus of unprecedented media and policy attention. While class is a longstanding discursive category, the prefix 'white' is an important rider. We live in an era of global migration. Population pressure from the global South, and demand for workers in the developed North, will power what some term a 'third demographic transition' involving significant declines in the white majority populations of the western world (Coleman 2010). In the UK, the upsurge in diversity arguably presents a greater challenge for the working-class part of the white British population than for the middle class. Why? First, because for lower-status members of dominant groups, their ethnic identity tends to be their most prestigious social identity (Yiftachel 1999). Second, minorities tend to be from disadvantaged backgrounds and are therefore more likely to compete for housing and jobs with the white working class. Finally, because the white working-class is less comfortable navigating the contours of the new global knowledge economy than the middle class, it is more attached to existential securities rooted in the local and national context (Skey 2011).
How might the white working class respond to increasing diversity? Drawing upon Albert O. Hirschman's classic book Exit, Voice and Loyalty (1970), we posit three possible responses: 'exit', 'voice' and 'accommodation.' The first possibility is white 'exit': geographic segregation, or, in the extreme, 'white flight'. A second avenue is 'voice': spearheading an identity politics based on opposition to immigration and voting for white nationalist parties. A third possibility is accommodation, in which members of the white working-class become more comfortable with elevated levels of ethnic diversity in their neighbourhood and nation. From exploratory research and existing literature, we suggest that a three-stage pattern of voice, exit and accommodation may be a useful way of thinking about white working-class responses to diversity in the UK. In other words, initial diversity meets strong white working-class resistance, expressed in attitudes and voting. This is followed by a degree of white outmigration, and then by a decline in anti-immigration sentiment and far right voting. Yet these broad patterns require finer-grained analysis that takes both individual characteristics and local context into account.
This project will test these propositions through quantitative and qualitative research. There are three major dimensions of white working class attitudes and behaviour we seek to explain. Namely, whether members of the white working-class: 1) are more likely than other groups to leave or avoid areas with large or growing minority populations; 2) oppose immigration more strongly if they reside in diverse or ethnically changing wards and local authorities; and 3) support far right parties more if they reside in diverse or ethnically changing wards and local authorities.
The quantitative research will be based on ONS longitudinal survey and census data, as well the large-scale Citizenship Surveys and Understanding Society surveys. We will identify individual respondents from the quantitative research and explore their responses through qualitative work, in the form of three focus groups - two in Greater London, one in Birmingham. These will probe connections between respondents' local and national identities, their intentions to move neighbourhood, and their opinions on immigration, interethnic relations, community cohesion and voting behaviour. A central question we seek to answer is whether inter-ethnic contact reduces white working-class antagonism toward minorities (the contact hypothesis), or whether increased diversity leads to white flight, leaving relatively tolerant whites remaining in diverse neighbourhoods. The latter, 'hydraulic' process mimics the contact hypothesis but does not signify increased accommodation.

The question of how the white working-class responds to growing diversity is of interest to think tanks, public servants and political parties. This is also the case in much of the rest of the western world. As the high-profile debate over whether Britain is 'too diverse' to build solidarity (Goodhart 2004) or, in Trevor Phillips' words, is 'sleepwalking into segregation', the media, politicians and policymakers evince a strong appetite for this topic. This is especially the case in view of the Big Society and 'broken Britain' narratives: local communities can only deliver on wider policy aims if such communities possess adequate community cohesion.
Too often, opinions go uninformed by social research. This project directly addresses this weak link by establishing a working partnership between investigators at Birkbeck College, and a nonpartisan think tank, Demos. Academia specialises in rigorous data analysis and a grounding in the conceptual literature. Think tanks like Demos have extensive links with politicians, the media and government departments and a track record of preparing reports and policy briefs. They regularly conduct focus group research. This project allows for a synergy between these two institutions: academic findings can be conveyed along Demos' policy network while Demos' qualitative expertise can be cross-fertilised with Eric Kaufmann and Gareth Harris' analytical skills and familiarity with the academic literature on national identity, the British National Party, immigration and ethnic conflict.
Demos will provide the primary gateway to policy impact for this project. We identify three distinct levels of impact: political, media and policy. Numerous politicians have written for Demos or attended Demos events. Indeed, most politicians with an interest in the response of the white working-class to diversity are known to us. In terms of political impact, this will be generated through Demos project events, notably the launch event for the report. We will be inviting those we know to be interested in this subject to a series of Demos events presenting project findings. Invited politicians will include, among others, David Willetts (Higher Education Minister), who regularly attends our events, David Lammy (Shadow Higher Education Minister), Gavin Barwell (Tory MP for Croydon Central), Andrew Stunnell (Lib Dem MP for Hazel Grove), Hazel Blears (Labour MP for Salford), Robert Halfon (Tory MP for Harlow) and Maurice Glasman (Labour peer). Demos events of this kind involve a roundtable format in which discussion is led by a minister or politician.
The second impact strand revolves around media. Our Demos report and other project findings will be publicised through a press release, on the Demos policy blog and via the Demos twitter feed. Demos reports are routinely covered in the mainstream national media in publications such as the Guardian, Economist, Spectator and New Statesman. The PI, who has published and interviewed widely in the media, will write at least one article for Prospect or a major broadsheet. Second, the PI and Gareth Harris aim to publicise important findings through a submission to ESRC Society Now and an ESRC evidence briefing to reach policymakers similar to those written for his previous ESRC awards. The third major strand of impact concerns policy. Demos regularly briefs government departments and ministers, including at the Department for Communities and Local Government (DCLG), Home Office and Department for Education. Policymakers from these departments, as well as the Equality and Human Rights Commission, will be invited to the launch event and subsequent project events. Findings will also be disseminated on the Demos policy blog and twitter feeds which are followed by numerous civil servants.