Socio-Political Trust and Anxiety as Drivers of the Politicisation of Criminal Justice Policy and the Rise of Mass Incarceration in England & Wales

England & Wales has the highest incarceration rate in Western Europe, resulting in an overcrowding crisis in prisons across both countries (Webster, 2023). This project seeks to explore how demand-side shifts in public support for punitive criminal justice policy and political competition over 'law & order' issues have contributed this phenomenon. Leveraging a battery of advanced quantitative modelling techniques, I plan to examine, in addition to the responsiveness of the public to empirical crime metrics (Enns et al., 2022), the role of both socio-political trust and anxieties in shaping public punitiveness (RQ1). Building on previous work (Lacey, 2008, Smith, 2010), I will consider the how criminal justice policy has become a focus of political competition, in both rhetoric and policy positions. Empirically, I will use text-as-data approaches to explore the influence of public opinion on the use of 'tough on crime' rhetoric (Newburn 2007) among supply-side political actors, and how, in turn, this can account for the rising incarceration rates within England & Wales (Jennings et al., 2017) (RQ2). Finally, I will consider how the factors influencing political strategies and public support for punitive criminal justice policy may be exacerbated by periods of socio-political instability (e.g., the EU referendum and COVID-19) (RQ3). This research is timely due to the comparative high rates of incarceration in England & Wales and holds social significance for those seeking to formulate evidence-based criminal justice policy that fosters public trust and confidence in the legitimacy of the criminal justice system.