GO-Forward: Geothermal Exploration and Optimization through Forward Modeling and Resource Development

GO-Forward aims to develop a novel methodological approach to make more accurate pre-drilling predictions of geothermal reservoir properties and thus reduce the mining risk. Key to the GO-Forward approach is to simulate geological processes for pre-drill assessment of reservoir structure and properties, calibrated to geological or geophysical data, rather than extrapolating the properties from those data with geostatistical methods. To this end, GO-Forward focuses on extending and further developing, testing and demonstrating the added value of forward modelling methods originally developed for hydrocarbon exploration, including stratigraphic forward modelling (SFM), diagenesis forward modelling (DFM) and fracture network forward modelling (FFM), to be used for exploration in different geothermal settings of high relevance for Europe. First, the developed approaches will be tested and calibrated in areas with abundant subsurface information and production data, to prove conceptually the applicability of the methods and reproducibility of the results, to optimise and de-risk geothermal exploration. Calibrated model approaches are subsequently applied in areas with limited data availability to demonstrate their capability to increase pre-drill Probability of Success (POS). To support the workflow and further reduce exploration costs, GO-Forward advances ML-based and computational methods to enhance (existing) (sub)surface information for calibration, uncertainty quantification and data assimilation, and (upscaling) routines for flow simulation, DNSH, and techno-economic performance assessment for POS and Value of Information (VOI). In addition, GO-Forward addresses public awareness of geothermal developments already at the early stages of exploration. By including novel approaches to citizen engagement and stakeholder dialogue, we aim to increase the societal readiness level of geothermal exploration as the first step of geothermal developments.