Macroeconomic Forecasting in Turbulent Times
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Strathclyde
Department Name: Economics
Abstract
Abstracts are not currently available in GtR for all funded research. This is normally because the abstract was not required at the time of proposal submission, but may be because it included sensitive information such as personal details.
Organisations
People |
ORCID iD |
| Gary Koop (Principal Investigator) |
Publications
Bauwens L
(2015)
The Contribution of Structural Break Models to Forecasting Macroeconomic Series STRUCTURAL BREAK MODELS IN FORECASTING MACROECONOMIC SERIES
in Journal of Applied Econometrics
Belmonte M
(2014)
Bayesian Model Comparison
Chan J
(2014)
Modelling breaks and clusters in the steady states of macroeconomic variables
in Computational Statistics & Data Analysis
Chan J
(2012)
Time Varying Dimension Models
in Journal of Business & Economic Statistics
Chan J
(2013)
A New Model of Trend Inflation
in Journal of Business & Economic Statistics
Chan J
(2014)
A Bounded Model of Time Variation in Trend Inflation, NAIRU and the Phillips Curve
in SSRN Electronic Journal
Gary Koop (Author)
(2012)
Using VARs and TVP-VARs with many macroeconomic variables
in Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics
Koop G
(2012)
FORECASTING INFLATION USING DYNAMIC MODEL AVERAGING*
in International Economic Review
Koop G
(2013)
Modeling the relationship between European carbon permits and certified emission reductions
in Journal of Empirical Finance
Koop G
(2011)
Time varying VARs with inequality restrictions
in Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control
| Description | The econometric tools developed in my research are increasingly being used for policy purposes (as well as academia). For instance, the research outputs under this grant included collaborative research with Dr. Simon Potter and Dr. Luca Onorante. Dr. Simon Potter was Head of the Markets Group at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Manager of the System Open Market Account of the Federal Open Market Committee. Luca Onorante is an economist in the Euro Area Macroeconomic Developments group, European Central Bank (ECB). Both of these individuals can attest to the fact that our research methods are influencing policy at central banks. More broadly, other researchers (at central banks in particular, but also other economic policy organizations) are using the DMA methods developed under this grant in their policy-oriented research papers. Dr. Dimitris Korobolis, a collaborator on several papers written under this grant, has also been using these methods in collaboration with researchers at the Deutsche Bundesbank. In short, the methods developed in my research are directly and indirectly infusing much economic policy research, particularly at central banks. |
| First Year Of Impact | 2012 |
| Sector | Government, Democracy and Justice,Other |
| Impact Types | Economic Policy & public services |
| Description | European Seminar on Bayesian Econometrics, 1-2 November, 2012, Vienna, Austria. |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | I presented the paper Large Time-Varying Parameter VARs at this conference |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2012 |
| Description | Macroeconomic Forecasting in Turbulent Times |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Primary Audience | |
| Results and Impact | Research relating to the project was presented at academic seminars at the following universities: University of Newcastle, 23 October, 2012. University of Pompeu Fabra (Barcelona, Spain), 2 October, 2012. Erasmus University, Rotterdam, 9 May, 2012. Vienna University of Economics and Business (Wirtschaftsuniversität Wien), 20 January, 2012, Vienna, Austria. University of Manchester, 10 November, 2011. University of Sheffield, 12 October, 2011. University of Kent, 5 October, 2011. University of Toronto, 15 September, 2011. University of Cambridge, 2 July, 2011. University of Lecce, Italy, 3 June, 2011. University of Bari, Italy, 5 June, 2011. Birkbeck University, 9 December, 2010. Keele University, 8 December, 2010. University of Cambridge, 27 October. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | |
| Description | Macromodels, 5-8 December, 2012, Zakopane, Poland. |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | I presented the paper Large Time-Varying Parameter VARs at this conference which involved Polish academics and policymakers |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2012 |