Synergy-Plague - Reconstructing the environmental, biological, and societal drivers of plague outbreaks in Eurasia between 1300 and 1900 CE
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Stirling
Department Name: History and Politics
Abstract
Synergy-Plague is a multi-disciplinary project to bring our knowledge and understanding of plague, past and
present, to new heights. Focussing on the environmental, biological, and societal aspects of plague outbreaks
in Eurasia between circa 1300 and 1900 CE, it will address four main questions:
(1) Why/how did plague re-emerge in 14th century Central Asia? (2) Why/how did plague re-occur and
spread in Eurasia after the Black Death? (3) Why/how did clinical and demographic patterns of plague
infection differ across space and time? (4) Why/how did plague disappear from Europe and the Middle East
in the 18th and 19th centuries?
Our project is based on the hypothesis that plague waves and clinical differences resulted from unique
alignments of multiple events: environmental (climatic and soil-chemical), biological (from individual to
ecosystem) and societal (demographic, socio-economic and political).
Four PIs from the natural sciences and humanities, together with their team members, will jointly study how
plague re-emerged in 14th century Central Asia and radiated repeatedly from Eurasian wildlife reservoirs in
the following centuries, only to disappear in the 18th
-19th centuries. We will develop and analyse new
dendrochronological and (paleo-)soil data, textual documentary evidence, and epidemiological models.
To understand how plague reached and spread in human populations, paleo-environmental and historical data
together with relevant experimental work will be combined with statistical and mathematical modelling.
To appreciate why clinical signs and mortality rates varied in space and time, historical evidence will be
examined together with new entomological data and ancient DNA (aDNA) of historical plague strains (from
humans and anthropophilic rodents). Synergy-Plague will revolutionise our understanding of plague and
contribute to our ongoing struggle with epidemic diseases, present and future
present, to new heights. Focussing on the environmental, biological, and societal aspects of plague outbreaks
in Eurasia between circa 1300 and 1900 CE, it will address four main questions:
(1) Why/how did plague re-emerge in 14th century Central Asia? (2) Why/how did plague re-occur and
spread in Eurasia after the Black Death? (3) Why/how did clinical and demographic patterns of plague
infection differ across space and time? (4) Why/how did plague disappear from Europe and the Middle East
in the 18th and 19th centuries?
Our project is based on the hypothesis that plague waves and clinical differences resulted from unique
alignments of multiple events: environmental (climatic and soil-chemical), biological (from individual to
ecosystem) and societal (demographic, socio-economic and political).
Four PIs from the natural sciences and humanities, together with their team members, will jointly study how
plague re-emerged in 14th century Central Asia and radiated repeatedly from Eurasian wildlife reservoirs in
the following centuries, only to disappear in the 18th
-19th centuries. We will develop and analyse new
dendrochronological and (paleo-)soil data, textual documentary evidence, and epidemiological models.
To understand how plague reached and spread in human populations, paleo-environmental and historical data
together with relevant experimental work will be combined with statistical and mathematical modelling.
To appreciate why clinical signs and mortality rates varied in space and time, historical evidence will be
examined together with new entomological data and ancient DNA (aDNA) of historical plague strains (from
humans and anthropophilic rodents). Synergy-Plague will revolutionise our understanding of plague and
contribute to our ongoing struggle with epidemic diseases, present and future
