Synergy-Plague - Reconstructing the environmental, biological, and societal drivers of plague outbreaks in Eurasia between 1300 and 1900 CE
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Stirling
Department Name: History and Politics
Abstract
Synergy-Plague is a multi-disciplinary project to bring our knowledge and understanding of plague, past and
present, to new heights. Focussing on the environmental, biological, and societal aspects of plague outbreaks
in Eurasia between circa 1300 and 1900 CE, it will address four main questions:
(1) Why/how did plague re-emerge in 14th century Central Asia? (2) Why/how did plague re-occur and
spread in Eurasia after the Black Death? (3) Why/how did clinical and demographic patterns of plague
infection differ across space and time? (4) Why/how did plague disappear from Europe and the Middle East
in the 18th and 19th centuries?
Our project is based on the hypothesis that plague waves and clinical differences resulted from unique
alignments of multiple events: environmental (climatic and soil-chemical), biological (from individual to
ecosystem) and societal (demographic, socio-economic and political).
Four PIs from the natural sciences and humanities, together with their team members, will jointly study how
plague re-emerged in 14th century Central Asia and radiated repeatedly from Eurasian wildlife reservoirs in
the following centuries, only to disappear in the 18th
-19th centuries. We will develop and analyse new
dendrochronological and (paleo-)soil data, textual documentary evidence, and epidemiological models.
To understand how plague reached and spread in human populations, paleo-environmental and historical data
together with relevant experimental work will be combined with statistical and mathematical modelling.
To appreciate why clinical signs and mortality rates varied in space and time, historical evidence will be
examined together with new entomological data and ancient DNA (aDNA) of historical plague strains (from
humans and anthropophilic rodents). Synergy-Plague will revolutionise our understanding of plague and
contribute to our ongoing struggle with epidemic diseases, present and future
present, to new heights. Focussing on the environmental, biological, and societal aspects of plague outbreaks
in Eurasia between circa 1300 and 1900 CE, it will address four main questions:
(1) Why/how did plague re-emerge in 14th century Central Asia? (2) Why/how did plague re-occur and
spread in Eurasia after the Black Death? (3) Why/how did clinical and demographic patterns of plague
infection differ across space and time? (4) Why/how did plague disappear from Europe and the Middle East
in the 18th and 19th centuries?
Our project is based on the hypothesis that plague waves and clinical differences resulted from unique
alignments of multiple events: environmental (climatic and soil-chemical), biological (from individual to
ecosystem) and societal (demographic, socio-economic and political).
Four PIs from the natural sciences and humanities, together with their team members, will jointly study how
plague re-emerged in 14th century Central Asia and radiated repeatedly from Eurasian wildlife reservoirs in
the following centuries, only to disappear in the 18th
-19th centuries. We will develop and analyse new
dendrochronological and (paleo-)soil data, textual documentary evidence, and epidemiological models.
To understand how plague reached and spread in human populations, paleo-environmental and historical data
together with relevant experimental work will be combined with statistical and mathematical modelling.
To appreciate why clinical signs and mortality rates varied in space and time, historical evidence will be
examined together with new entomological data and ancient DNA (aDNA) of historical plague strains (from
humans and anthropophilic rodents). Synergy-Plague will revolutionise our understanding of plague and
contribute to our ongoing struggle with epidemic diseases, present and future
Publications
Hansen DW
(2024)
Dying of pestilence: Stature and mortality from the Black Death in 14th-century Kyrgyzstan.
in American journal of biological anthropology
Slavin P
(2024)
Plague Strikes Back: The Pestis Secunda of 1361-62 and Its Demographic Consequences in England and Wales
in Journal of Medieval and Early Modern Studies
| Description | DEBS Plague |
| Organisation | Pasteur Institute, Lille |
| Country | France |
| Sector | Charity/Non Profit |
| PI Contribution | I've been involved, as an external partner, to contribute to the ongoing research in conjunction with the DEBS PLAGUE project hosted by the Pasteur Institute in Lille. In conjunction with this project, I am supervising a team of French historians working to identify late-medieval plague-related sources in French archives, to extract and analyse relevant information about plague outbreaks and origins in France, between c.1360-1520. This is made possible thanks to my database of global plague outbreaks (c.1338-1900), in making. On the basis of the inputted information, available in SYNERGY PLAGUE-related database (being put together by me), I've been able to identify relevant years and places associated with plague outbreaks. One of the historians (Dr. Claire Clement, a post-doc hired at the DEBS Plague project) is travelling to various French archives on a regular basis to digitise relevant sources; she then transcribes relevant information, which I, in turn, input into the SYNERGY PLAGUE database and analyse, to generate new historical knowledge, relevant to both the SYNERGY PLAGUE and DEBS PLAGUE projects. |
| Collaborator Contribution | One of the SYNERGY PLAGUE partners (Dr. Florent Sebanne, the Pasteur Institute in Lille) is also the leader of the DEBS PLAGUE project. Given similar aims of the two projects (to study bio-ecological and societal factors triggering plague outbreaks; please note that the DEBS PLAGUE is concerned with France only, while SYNERGY PLAGUE has a global outlook), newly generated knowledge will be used by Sebanne for both projects. My other partner, Dr. Maria Spyrou (University of Tubingen), with whom I am currently involved in another research project, is also an external partner of DEBS PLAGUE project. As a preeminent bioarchaeologist, Dr Spyrou is generating new aDNA data, to reveal evolutionary aspects of plague strains circulating in France in the late medieval and early modern period - one of the central questions standing at the heart of the DEBS PLAGUE project. |
| Impact | As the project commenced only a year ago, there are no publication outputs to be reported yet. |
| Start Year | 2024 |
| Description | Plague Spread in East Africa |
| Organisation | Pasteur Institute, Paris |
| Country | France |
| Sector | Charity/Non Profit |
| PI Contribution | Plague in the Baltic is a research project looking at the spatio-temporal contours of plague spread in East Africa (the Great Lake region), leading to a publication in a top-ranked journal. My contribution consists of providing historical contextualisation of each sequenced genome in space and time, as well as help analysing the spatio-temporal peculiarities of phylogenetic positioning of each genome, estimating approximate dates and associating each genome with one or several potential historical outbreaks. This is all made possible thanks to SYNERGY PLAGUE-related database in making (database of global plague outbreaks (c.1338-1900), whereby I identify historical outbreaks chronologically adjacent to the dates of sequenced genomes and place the same genomes into their wider bio-ecological and historical contexts. |
| Collaborator Contribution | Dr. Guillem Mas-Fiol and Dr. Javier Pizarro-Cerda, both of the Pasteur Institute of Paris, are leaders of the project. |
| Impact | Several conference presentations were given; currently, a submitted multi-authored paper resulting from the project is being revised for resubmission. |
| Start Year | 2024 |
| Description | Plague Spread in Scandinavia, c.1350-1550 |
| Organisation | University College London |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | The research project in question is an interdisciplinary team-led project focusing on aDNA analysis of plague genomes from late-medieval and early modern Scandinavia, to (1) improve our understanding of late-medieval and early-modern phylogenetic history of plague and (2) to reconstruct the spatio-temporal contours of plague spread in Scandinavia which will lead to a publication in a top-ranked journal. My contribution consists of providing historical contextualisation of each sequenced genome in space and time, as well as help analysing the spatio-temporal peculiarities of phylogenetic positioning of each genome, estimating approximate dates and associating each genome with one or several potential historical outbreaks. This is all made possible thanks to SYNERGY PLAGUE-related database in making (database of global plague outbreaks (c.1338-1900), whereby I identify historical outbreaks chronologically adjacent to the dates of sequenced genomes and place the same genomes into their wider bio-ecological and historical contexts. |
| Collaborator Contribution | Drs Cameron Fergusson and Lucy Van Dorp, of the UCL, are the leaders of the project. |
| Impact | As the project is still at its incipient stage, no outputs have been produced yet. |
| Start Year | 2024 |
| Description | Doing Interdisciplinary Study of the Past - What's in a Name (and Practice)? |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | Local |
| Primary Audience | Other audiences |
| Results and Impact | Paper was presented at the 'Scientists Meet Artists' Forum, the Israeli Institute for Advanced Studies, 23 March 2025; the presentation was given to artists in residence at the Institute; it was attended by 20 individuals and involved an interactive dialogue with the participants, sparking questions and discussion afterwards. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2024 |
| Description | The End of the Silk Roads. Plague, Climate, Wars and Trade in Central Asia, c. 1300-1420 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | Regional |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | Paper was presented at the 'the 2024 Society for the Exploration of EurAsia (Gesellschaft zur Erforschung EurAsiens) Lecture at the Antikenmuseum Basel, 1 December 2024; the presentation was given to general public; it was attended by about 120 individuals and involved an interactive dialogue with the participants, sparking questions and discussion afterwards. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2024 |