Learning to adapt to an uncertain future: linking genes, trees, people and processes for more resilient treescapes (newLEAF)

Lead Research Organisation: University of York
Department Name: Environment

Abstract

This proposal addresses Theme 3: Resilience of UK Treescapes to global change.

Treescapes - our woodlands, our forests, our urban trees - are critical to our environment, our health and well-being and our ability to transition to a zero carbon economy via plans to substantially increase tree numbers in the landscape. However, climate change and increasing risks from pests and disease threaten the UK treescape like never before. This future is uncertain but we do know that our treescapes must change to survive and thrive. Although we may see treescapes as permanent or fixed, in truth they have an amazing capacity to be dynamic and shift on timescales that are relevant to human lifespans. Indeed, it is often only human interventions that have prevented populations from changing and adapting. For example, where uncontrolled grazing is allowed, little or no regeneration occurs and there is no opportunity for new genetic diversity to enter the population and for the population to adapt. For treescapes to be resilient, change is essential, but this can take many forms - from low intervention, allowing regeneration but taking little other action, to highly managed situations like production forestry, where deliberate choices can be taken to deploy particular genotypes to track environmental shifts. To understand, live with and shape change within treescapes, we must first learn from how treescapes have changed in the past, then quantify how much potential they have to change in the future, and finally develop ways of building change into our treescapes and the ways we interact with them.

This proposal outlines newLEAF, a project to evaluate options for using the extensive natural genetic variation within tree species to keep pace with expected changes in climate and the biotic (pest & disease) environment. Firstly, we will learn from the past 100 years of treescape management in the UK, bringing together historical information on policy and practice with data on changing tree populations on the ground to understand the link between choices made at a policy level and the outcomes for treescape resilience. Then we will quantify the rate of adaptation that can be achieved by both natural and human selection in key tree species for the UK, focusing on traits linked to fitness in forecasted environments and susceptibility to pests and pathogens. We will compare the impacts that natural regeneration versus planting has on the development of biotic communities associated with trees, particularly fungi and insect vectors with the potential to mediate risk.

Drawing directly from the experimental work, we will design models incorporating data on trait variability and will evaluate how internal adaptability within tree species can be used, in varying compositions, configurations and under different management regimes, to generate diverse and dynamic treescapes with an in-built capability to track environmental changes, even when that change is uncertain. We will test tools and strategies to minimise risk from pests and pathogens, especially those associated with planned increases in tree numbers in the landscape, learning from the interactions between our set of focal species and their associated communities. Working with stakeholders, we will explore the social and economic drivers that can be deployed to effect change in the landscape, learning from historical environmental policies and their outcomes in the UK and from key case studies in similar systems across Europe. A particular focus will be on people engaging with the concepts of uncertainty, dynamism and change, studying new ways to integrate science and the arts and creating new works framed around these ideas. Bringing together this diverse and multidisciplinary team, we will produce new research, guidance, policy recommendations, art and science-based tools that will advance the cause of resilience in the UK's future treescape.

Publications

10 25 50
 
Description We expand forest models that account for tree pest and disease spread accounting for the role of tree intraspecific genetic variability. We estimated net gains of a rotational management approach, and show that there are trade-offs between the cost of deploying a diversity of genetic traits of the tree planted and potential gains from protection against pest and disease threats. Planting slower-growing and more resistant trees can be optimal. This is, the incentive to plant high levels of genetic variability depends on whetherthe suppressive effects on pest or disease dynamics outweigh the economic losses from harvesting trees at mixed maturity levels.
Exploitation Route Paper publication and presentation at Conferences (e.g. EAERE 2024, and Treescape Programme Final Conference.
Sectors Environment

 
Description Interdisciplinary training for early career researchers
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Influenced training of practitioners or researchers
Impact About 25 early career researchers at the University of York gained training on how to write research proposal with an interdisciplinary team of scientists. Researchers produced a collaborative research proposal at the end of the training.
 
Description European partnership on carbon markets and tree planting on agroforestry systems 
Organisation University of Helsinki
Country Finland 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Part of an European consortium on socio-ecological resilience on agroforestry practices.
Collaborator Contribution Collaboration on European Grant Proposal submitted on February 2024 under the call HORIZON-CL6-2024-FARM2FORK-01
Impact Submission of proposal for European Funding: Proposal number: 101182160. Proposal acronym: ASERA Topic: HORIZON-CL6-2024- FARM2FORK-01-10 Type of Action: HORIZON-RIA (HORIZON Research and Innovation Actions)
Start Year 2023
 
Description Panellist, Landscape Decisions Programme Final Conference 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Panellist discussant on the session : Multifunctional landscapes for sustainable societies: A high-level policy dialogue.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2023
URL https://le.ac.uk/news/2023/september/land-management#:~:text=On%206%20to%207%20September,the%20topic...
 
Description Paper at conference for specialised audience 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other audiences
Results and Impact Paper accepted to be presented at the European Environmental Economics Association Conference.
Paper title: Accounting for genetic variability and disease spread on optimal rotation length: insights from a bioeconomic model
Authors: Ewan Mctaggart, Julia Touza, and Adam Kleczkowski.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2024
URL http://www.eaere-conferences.org/
 
Description Timber festival participation in expert debate on resilient ecosystems 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Member of a panel of experts on the topic "Restoring Resilient Ecosystems" as part of The Timber Festival, organised by the National Forest.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2022
URL http://timberfestival.org.uk/diy-utopia/campfire-diy-utopia
 
Description Treescape stakeholder workshop 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Stakeholder workshop held in November 2022 to discuss the latest research in forest genetic resources, with 40 participants, primarily from forestry policy teams, the public forest estate, and nature agencies in England, Scotland, Wales, and Defra.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2022