Climate change's impact on extreme European rainfall

Climate change will have major effects on the risks of extreme rainfall in Europe, which is a primary cause of
flooding and drought, two of the biggest dangers we face. Events like the flooding in the UK in 2014 and the
2022 European drought are expected to become more likely. However, it is still uncertain how large future
changes in extreme events like these will be, making it difficult to apply our knowledge to adaptation and
disaster risk reduction. This is because extreme events are rare, so we cannot obtain large samples of
observed extremes to learn about them, and typical climate modelling experiments also do not sample
enough of them. There are also large fundamental uncertainties about how driving weather patterns will
change - for example, how far the jet stream location will shift in future. Better understanding of the risks of
these extreme weather events are highly important for work such as the UK government Climate Change
Risk Assessments. This project will help to fill this gap.