Integrated Analysis of Freshwater Resources Sustainability in Jordan

This proposed effort will focus on development of an integrated framework to evaluate water policy
interventions in water-stressed countries using Jordan as a model system. Jordan is representative of
many arid regions where future natural and social changes set the stage for nationwide water supply
failures. Existing water resources models ignore critical interactions between hydrologic and
socioeconomic components, resulting in a lack of holistic analysis needed to make long-term policy
decisions. Our interdisciplinary team will develop a quantitative policy-evaluation tool to explore ways to
enhance the sustainability of freshwater systems through such innovations as optimized allocation
procedures, institutional re-structuring, subsidies/tariffs, water-lease markets, and transboundary
institutions. We will construct a modular, agent-based hydroeconomic model in which each module
captures scientific and local knowledge from a unique discipline synthesizing hydrologic, agronomic, and
socioeconomic analysis into a coherent analytical framework. The modules will be linked through
feedbacks among system components. The policy-evaluation model will combine simulation of natural
phenomena (groundwater-surface water flow, crop yield, and soil / water salinity) with human
decision-making at the institutional and user levels (water usage, regulation, allocation, transboundary
water, and trade). We will evaluate a wide range of policy interventions based on a set of quantitative
economic and environmental metrics. In addition to developing a new tool for water policy analysis, the
project aims to identify innovative policy solutions for a water system that has exhausted traditional
supply sources and is operating at the vulnerable edge. Our analysis of risks and benefits associated
with policy solutions will be assessed, and management options communicated to stakeholders who will
be actively solicited for input. The project will further set the groundwork for deploying the integrated
framework to other water-stressed regions throughout the globe.

The project will include ongoing engagement with relevant governmental
agencies, civil society organizations, and research institutes in Jordan to
broadcast research findings and policy recommendations. Over the past
year, the project team has engaged in extensive dialogue with various
stakeholders in the water management sector in Jordan and surveyed
where major research and study needs remain. Two pre-proposal trips
were made to Jordan to make contacts, develop collaborations (with our
unfunded Jordanian partners listed in this proposal), and secure data.
The consortium will disseminate all information and results through
publications, conferences, two Uncommon Dialogues, and our website. All
results will become immediately available upon completion of papers and
presentations that are produced as part of this project. The policy
evaluation model will be provided to Jordan through the Ministry of Water
and Irrigation. Material such as data and interim results will be posted on
our website for rapid dissemination. Findings from the research project
would be directly plugged into several existing programs and work efforts
to address water management issues across the country. The most
relevant efforts and organizations are described below.

Uncommon Dialogues: Regular progress meetings with each of the above
organizations will be scheduled during multiple trips to Amman, Jordan.

Model Training and Technology Transfer: Over the course of the project,
staff will be identified at the MWI (Ministry) to be trained in model
development and use.

Institutional Strengthening and Support Program (USAID): In recent years,
the USAID has been focusing efforts on re-structuring and strengthening of
water institutions in Jordan. We will learn from these efforts and other bilateral
programmes and build on them. For example, the Highland Water Forum (BGR)
- An effort funded by the German Development Agency (GIZ) and established
by the MWI in 2010 has involved the planning of multi-stakeholder dialogues
that aim to bring conflicting water users together and build trust and understanding.

The Royal Court: Our proposed Jordan water project was first envisioned
through initial dialogues between Dr. Gorelick and Dr. Amin Badr-El-Din, a
Stanford University alumnus and Jordanian entrepreneur. Dr. Badr-El-Din
has had multiple conversations with King Abdullah II regarding the project,
who has expressed interest in exploring results from this independent
research.

Research Institutes (Royal Scientific Society, Middle East Scientific
Institute for Security): The project team has identified several existing
research institutions through which research findings can be disseminated
to relevant audiences. The Royal Scientific Society (RSS) is the largest
applied research institution, consultancy, and technical support service
provider in the country, with water sustainability a major focus area. The
Middle East Scientific Institute for Security (MESIS) focuses on promotion
of energy, environmental, and border security through use of science and
technology.