The Scottish independence referendum and the British voter: an enhancement to the British Election Study Internet Panel.

This proposal seeks to provide evidence to inform scholarly research and public understanding of the causes and consequences of attitudes towards Scottish independence and the devolution of powers from Westminster to national or regional bodies. To achieve this it will extend the remit of the internet panel elements of the British Election Study to provide panel data in the period leading up to and after the Scottish referendum including, but not limited to, a boosted sample size for Scotland and Wales. This proposal seeks to provide mutual benefits to the Future of Scotland/UK initiative and to the British Election Study by extending the period covered, the content and the size of the Internet panel study in England, Scotland and Wales. The survey would include a full panel (including a substantial Scottish boost) in January 2014, June 2014 and September 2014 (post referendum) and would continue to include relevant follow up questions to the sample in the 2015 pre/campaign/post-election waves and then in 2016 (local elections and Scottish Elections) and finally in 2017. The proposal will link to the Future of the UK and Scotland initiative, but does not extend to Northern Ireland, as this is outside the remit of the original British Election Study award.

The BES internet panel constitutes a key research resource for wide range of users beyond academia. The data and associated scholarship serve an important role in understanding the electoral process and the health of our democracy. This will be particularly relevant in the period 2014-2017, due to declining political engagement, the implications of multi-party and multi-level governance (including the Scottish referendum) for accountability, and of economic austerity for political representation.
Beneficiaries: Politicians and parties benefit from understanding the consequences of their policy positions and campaigns, public attitudes towards politics and reasons for vote choice and voter turnout. BES data is beneficial to political actors in Scottish and Welsh government, local government, European parliament elections, mayoral government, and to independence referendum campaigners in Scotland. BES data has international value in our proposal by enabling comparison with other countries, benefiting international observers, comparative researchers and politicians. Journalists and commentators benefit from non-partisan analysis and interpretation, and from a high-quality data source; enhancing public understanding via informed commentary. To the extent that effective policy is informed by understanding public preferences and priorities, national, regional and local government policy-makers derive benefits from the understanding of public attitudes. Policy benefits are direct on political reform and on voter registration methods. Beneficiaries also include think tanks, trade unions, commercial and third-sector organisations. Think-tanks and trade unions benefit from understanding public attitudes and political consequences. Commercial pollsters benefit from insights on question design and subsequent analysis, and from scientific capacity-building in the academic analysis of public opinion. Further benefits will accrue to third-sector organisations such as the Electoral Commission and the Hansard Society. The specified organisations will benefit from closely linked BES questionnaire priorities, from research into electoral registration and into political disengagement, accountability and representation, and from shared research goals, and dissemination activities. The enhanced BES internet panel will be of particular value to media commentators, political parties and practitioners and researchers seeking to understand the dynamics of support for Scottish independence in particular and multilevel governance and devolution more generally.
Potential Impacts: The proposed study maximizes opportunities for impact during the four-years of the study, and is expected to achieve impact in subsequent years and elections, as policy-makers respond to the data and the research, and politicians implement changes in strategy. BES data accessibility - to any user - will ensure the longevity of potential impacts. In particular, impacts on national and devolved political party strategies and on policy-making will be maximized via the study design and via a series of additional events around the time of the referendum to be held in Edinburgh, Cardiff and London. Impact on media reporting - and on public understanding of the politics of devolution and the future of the United Kingdom will be on going, regardless of the outcome of the referendum. The collection of political focussed panel data contributes, ultimately, to the nation's wellbeing. This depends, at least in part, upon the relationship between the electorate and its political elites and on the quality of political representation; which the BES is uniquely able to assess.