RAVEN: Resilience, Adaptability and Vulnerability of complex Energy Networks
Lead Research Organisation:
Queen Mary University of London
Department Name: Sch of Mathematical Sciences
Abstract
Energy infrastructure has gone through unprecedented change in recent decades and has resulted in the emergence of enormous networks that transcend national borders and even continental shores. There is, thus, an urgent need to generate more systematic knowledge on these complex systems, if one is to succeed in adequately handling the many threats and vulnerabilities. The project RAVEN aims at capturing essential measures, parameters and qualitative behaviours which may help us to gain insights into the limits of operation of these critical infrastructure networks, as well as to design the 'smart' grids of the future in a robust way. To accomplish this, we have identified five major problems which are both timely and solvable during the duration of the project.Problem 1. Energy networks have evolved under the pressure to minimize local rather than global failures. However, little is known about how this local optimization has influenced the vulnerability of energy infrastructures at the scale of continents. We will develop graph theoretical measures to characterise the vulnerability of European cities to intentional attacks, based on both current and future planned gas and electricity networks.Problem 2. The impact of infrastructure component failures and their severity on interconnected networks can be exacerbated and are generally much higher and more difficult to foresee, compared with failures confined to single infrastructures. We will approach this problem from two angles. On one hand, we will develop mathematical measures to characterise the increased risk for the interconnected real-world European gas and electricity networks. On the other hand, we will attempt to introduce a model control network which oversees the real world infrastructure networks, and extract measures of its vulnerability and redundancy.Problem 3. Although the UK has been self-sufficient so far, its energy needs are changing rapidly. In particular, 30 years of intense domestic exploitation of natural gas have resulted in the need for ever-increasing imports. Therefore, it is clear that the switch from net exporter to large importer as well as the associated changes in the marketplace raise new issues for security of supply for the UK. These issues are particularly acute during scenarios of geo-political crises such as the Ukraine-Russian supply crisis in January 2009. Our aim here will be to characterise the role of network structure when it is based on fair allocation of flows to end consumers.Problem 4. Generally speaking, the 'Smart' Grid will be more like the Internet: exchanging information and energy among nodes for collaboration across the network resulting in a more efficient, sustainable grid and a real-time evolving energy marketplace. However, it is largely unknown how the coupling between spot price, energy availability and consumers will adapt to such real-time interaction. Our goal is to determine which parameters control the dynamics of the coupled system, since these will be the crucial measures of study in the real world.Problem 5. Over the last decade, we have accumulated considerable knowledge on the topology and flow characteristics of the electricity and gas grids from the point of view of complex networks. However, little is known about transport processes on gas pipeline networks. In parallel, the lack of geographically extended data sets has constrained analyses of flows on the power grid to the scale of nations, and a general theory of dynamical processes at the scale of continents is still elusive. To address these issues, we will analyse time series data of inputs to gas pipeline networks. We will also study further the dynamics of blackouts from cascade propagation and phase de-synchronisation on the power grid at the European scale with a particular emphasis to the relation between the UK and other European countries.
Planned Impact
The project aims at informing the UK Government and the Office of Gas and Electricity Markets (Ofgem) of our scientific findings, with the aim of addressing the national challenges of energy security and affordability in the long-term. We realise that there is yet no exact science to address this challenge. However, UK institutions will need more than risk assessment and good judgement to gain insight into the mechanisms at play in global energy markets. We believe that this project is a first step in the right direction of developing rigorous mathematical tools to understand the interwoven dependencies which emerge in complex energy networks. Our aim is to extend the range of tools available to decision makers with quantitative measures grounded in solid mathematical methods. We also intend to use the opportunities afforded by the major EPSRC-funded grant for IMPACTQM (which is officially launched in November, 2009) to facilitate short, useful knowledge exchanging liaisons with power companies during the period of the proposed funding. The agencies mentioned above should have access to a sound collection of publications in top journals arising from the project. This will underpin our ability to offer advice on strategic decisions to be undertaken by the UK Government and the energy sector. A better understanding of the resilience, vulnerability and adaptability of the UK energy networks will help to foster the competitiveness of the United Kingdom and to ensure that the UK remains a leading voice in European energy markets. Indirectly, it has the potential to increase the effectiveness of the economy, the competitiveness of the energy sector and to secure a high quality of life for the citizens of the UK. To ensure that our results are disseminated to the key contacts and agencies, we propose to organize two one-day workshops involving members of the UK and International applied mathematics community together with keynote speakers from ofgem, nationalgrid or EDF. This is in addition to the 6-monthly meetings with sponsors. The workshops will be widely advertised within the UK applied mathematics and engineering communities (e.g. The Institute of Mathematics and its Applications). The first workshop will take place during the spring of 2010 to assemble interest and promote interaction. The project finishes with a second workshop in December 2012 to assess how research moved in the intervening period, and to compile key results for dissemination to ofgem, industrial partners and the public. We have secured the support of EDF energy for the duration of the project and will organize the workshops as a platform to seek further industrial collaborations. For even wider dissemination, we will have a dedicated website to indicate project activity and deliverables.
Publications
Ajmone-Marsan M
(2012)
The emerging energy web
in The European Physical Journal Special Topics
Carvalho R
(2012)
Fair sharing of resources in a supply network with constraints.
in Physical review. E, Statistical, nonlinear, and soft matter physics
Carvalho R
(2011)
Fair sharing of resources in a supply network with constraints
Carvalho R
(2014)
Resilience of natural gas networks during conflicts, crises and disruptions.
in PloS one
Chen Y
(2014)
First-passage time of Brownian motion with dry friction.
in Physical review. E, Statistical, nonlinear, and soft matter physics
Chen Y
(2013)
First-passage time of Brownian motion with dry friction
Chen Y
(2013)
Weak-noise limit of a piecewise-smooth stochastic differential equation.
in Physical review. E, Statistical, nonlinear, and soft matter physics
Description | After setting up a computer model for gas flow on the European grid, we were able to ask and answer questions in a form which were relevant to economic or political discussion. For example, what would happen if gas supplies were cut through Ukraine as a result of geo-political disputes and they were replaced by a fair distribution of supplies via the Netherlands (but most likely at an overall reduced capacity). With our analysis, we were able to answer such questions by providing a ranking of the vulnerability of EU countries. A key part of the problem is to understand how supplies should be redistributed in a crisis, and so a concept of fairness has to be introduced into the decision making on the allocation of flows. The so-called Transmission Control Protocol (TCP) for packet traffic networks controls the way in which packet flows on the internet are increased and reduced to control congestion. This was adapted to the fairness of flow problem. The mathematics uses a utility function which has an associated pricing model and maximises when the flow distribution is fair. |
Exploitation Route | We have been able to display as heatmaps information related to the effects of curtailment of flow to countries and conurbations within countries and provide ranking of country vulnerability. In other words, we have tailored a mathematical investigation into meaningful language for other groups to use. The information we have published could form part of the evidence needed to make more sensible decisions on future European gas pipeline infrastructure development. A future aim of this research is to investigate the connectivity created by these graph building scenarios and the nature of the dynamics at the root of such behaviour, and ultimately to propose countermeasures which can be employed to prevent such catastrophes. |
Sectors | Energy Government Democracy and Justice |
URL | http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0090265 |
Description | Context In 2006 D. K. Arrowsmith took the lead, based on the research expertise within the School of Mathematical Sciences at QMUL, to assemble a group of commercial partners, European wide non-HE institutions, and academic partners to initiate an EU wide network for the investigation of critical infrastructure. An EU sponsored grant application arose out of a collaboration over several years between members of staff at QMUL (PI: Arrowsmith) and the EC Joint Research Centre, Ispra (Gutierrez) on control of heavy impact oscillators. The title of the EU grant was "Diagnosing Vulnerability, Emergent Phenomena and Volatility in MANMADE Networks" and it was funded for the period January 2007 - December, 2009. (NEST Pathfinder 1.1 million Euro, WEB: manmade.maths.qmul.ac.uk) This led to a collaboration involving industrial stakeholders National Emergency Supply Agency (Finland), the Collegium Budapest (COLB) with EON electricity, and other academic institutions across Italy and Macedonia, who looked at the analysis of real networks from both the mathematical and engineering perspectives. There was instant reaction and interest to our success at key complexity sites in the UK mathematical community after we began thee EC MANMADE project. We delivered the impact and outcomes through a website www.manmadenet.eu which made results widely available. Crucially, the activity in MANMADE enabled us to apply for the EPSRC funding for the current, RAVEN project. Key centres in the UK - Warwick, Bath, Bristol, Manchester and Exeter - were keen to hear of our progress in the latter (or both?) project. Our expertise has been acknowledged by D. K. Arrowsmith being a mentor of the EPSRC awarding panel for a Next Generation Resilience Sandpit (November, 2010 - where we awarded £3.2M in grant support). The project focused on the following two objectives: • Applying mathematical analysis to networks using real world data and understanding the problems and opportunities this raises. • Building new datasets, particularly around European electricity and gas networks, overlaying these networks to determine important common nodes, and offering a range of new insights using mathematical measures of network robustness which are based on network topology. Achievements beyond academia: As a result of our activity in RAVEN, we were invited to contribute to the FuturICT Flagship proposal, which intended to unify hundreds of the best scientists in Europe in a 10 year 1 billion EUR program to explore social life modelling on earth. The collaboration was a key element in forging new contacts with relevant agencies, which have led to outcomes including the following. 1. Collaboration with Eon power distributor (Hungary), who provided data for a dynamic power grid model under and EDF Energy in the UK. 2. Discussions with Centre for the Protection of National Infrastructure. 3. Invitations by the Engineering and Interdependency Expert Group under the National Infrastructure Plan to participate in sessions related to security of infrastructure by Government agencies, highlighting the impact of our research on policy making. Further non-academic involvement in networks-related security issues has arisen as a result of our original investigations include the following : 1. The production of "EC Technical report, An overview of research programmes and prospective technology in the development of more secure supply chains: The Case of Shipping Containers" E. Gutierrez (DG-JRC), W. van Heeswijk (DG-TAXUD), D. Arrowsmith (QMUL). 2. Invitation to participate in RCUK Global Uncertainties Programme. 3. Contributing advice on secondary networks to the HS2 rail network planning team. 4. Invitation by HM Treasury to discuss our work on resilience of networks with water supply company Veolia, but no collaboration developed. References to the research 1. Carvalho, R. (QMUL), Buzna, L. (ETH Zurich, University of Zilina), Bono, F. (JRC), Gutierrez, E. (JRC), Just, W. (QMUL), Arrowsmith, D. (QMUL): Robustness of Trans-European Gas Networks [Phys Rev E Stat Nonlin Soft Matter Phys. 2009:016106 (doi:10.1103/PhysRevE.80.016106)] 2. Woolf, M. (QMUL), Huang, Z. (QMUL), and Mondragon, R.J. (QMUL): Building catastrophes: networks designed to fail by avalanche-like breakdown, [New Journal of Physics, 9 (2007) 174 (http://www.njp.org/ , doi:10.1088/1367-2630/9/6/174)] 3. Mondragon, R.J. (QMUL): Topological modelling of large networks, [Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2008) 366, doi:10.1098/rsta.2008.0008] 4. Resilience, Adaptability and Volatility of complex Energy Networks (RAVEN, EPSRC EP/H04812X/1, 350kGBP awarded in March 2010, PI D.K.Arrowsmith (QMUL)) 5. Sources to corroborate the impact a. Hannu Sivonen (NESA), email: Hannu.Sivonen@nesa.fi b. Eugenio Gutierrez (JRC), email: eugenio.gutierrez@jrc.it c. www.manmadenet.eu d. www.futurict.ethz.ch e. David Penhallurick, Infrastructure UK, HM Treasury, email: David.Penhallurick@hmtreasury.gsi.gov.uk |
First Year Of Impact | 2006 |
Sector | Energy,Government, Democracy and Justice |
Impact Types | Policy & public services |
Title | Applications of fairness of flows on networks |
Description | Carvalho, Rui, Buzna, Lubos, Gibbens, Richard & Kelly, Frank (2015). Critical behaviour in charging of electric vehicles. New Journal of Physics 17(9): 095001. Carvalho continued his work on using utility functions that were developed for fairness of flows for infrastructure networks to that of the charging vehicles. His abstract reads: The increasing penetration of electric vehicles over the coming decades, taken together with the high cost to upgrade local distribution networks and consumer demand for home charging, suggest that managing congestion on low voltage networks will be a crucial component of the electric vehicle revolution and the move away from fossil fuels in transportation. Here, we model the max-flow and proportional fairness protocols for the control of congestion caused by a fleet of vehicles charging on two real-world distribution networks. We show that the system undergoes a continuous phase transition to a congested state as a function of the rate of vehicles plugging to the network to charge. We focus on the order parameter and its fluctuations close to the phase transition, and show that the critical point depends on the choice of congestion protocol. Finally, we analyse the inequality in the charging times as the vehicle arrival rate increases, and show that charging times are considerably more equitable in proportional fairness than in max-flow. |
Type Of Material | Improvements to research infrastructure |
Provided To Others? | No |
Impact | None so far. |
URL | http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1367-2630/17/9/095001/meta |