Management of Nuclear Risk Issues: Environmental, Financial and Safety (NREFS)
Lead Research Organisation:
City, University of London
Department Name: Sch of Engineering and Mathematical Sci
Abstract
The NREFS research programme will use the extensive data on post-accident contamination and doses from the Chernobyl accident as a guide to its evaluation of mitigation options following a possible large-scale accident in the future. New data from Fukushima will be used as they are reported.
Post-accident mitigation will then be considered in the four national contexts: Ukraine/Belarus, Japan, India and the UK using a variety of objective decision making techniques, including the new J-value technique, the JT-value method (both developed further under the EPSRC/ESRC SPRIng programme), real options and portfolio theory. Then scenario-based multi-criteria decision analysis will be used to investigate differences between recommendations from the objective methods and decisions being taken on the ground.
Recommendations from the various methods will be discussed with the Indian partners, including the Chairman of the Atomic Energy Commission, who will provide a conduit for rapid implementation in the Indian nuclear industry of valuable new ideas as they arise from the research.
Meanwhile the Parliamentary and Scientific Committee will be asked to consider running a briefing event for MPs and peers based on output from the NREFS project. This will offer a route to policy influence for valuable new research findings in the UK.
Post-accident mitigation will then be considered in the four national contexts: Ukraine/Belarus, Japan, India and the UK using a variety of objective decision making techniques, including the new J-value technique, the JT-value method (both developed further under the EPSRC/ESRC SPRIng programme), real options and portfolio theory. Then scenario-based multi-criteria decision analysis will be used to investigate differences between recommendations from the objective methods and decisions being taken on the ground.
Recommendations from the various methods will be discussed with the Indian partners, including the Chairman of the Atomic Energy Commission, who will provide a conduit for rapid implementation in the Indian nuclear industry of valuable new ideas as they arise from the research.
Meanwhile the Parliamentary and Scientific Committee will be asked to consider running a briefing event for MPs and peers based on output from the NREFS project. This will offer a route to policy influence for valuable new research findings in the UK.
Planned Impact
The project forms part of the UK-India Civil Nuclear Collaboration ongoing between the RCUK Energy Programme and India's Department of Atomic Energy (DAE), with the institutes sponsored by DAE including the Bhabha Atomic Research Centre and the Indira Gandhi Centre for Atomic Research.
The problem addressed, namely planning for post-accident mitigation following a large nuclear accident such as Fukushima, is of high and international importance.
The Secretary of the DAE, will be a member of the UK-India project team for NREFS. He will provide a conduit for rapid implementation in the Indian nuclear industry of valuable new ideas as they arise from the research.
A high-level final workshop will be held at City University, London to publicise the results. This will involve not only UK and Indian partners but also senior staff from the European nuclear industry. Invitations will be offered to EDF and Areva, for example, as well as to the Nuclear Industry Association. This will offer a route to industry implementation of valuable new ideas from the research.
The Parliamentary and Scientific Committee will be asked to consider running a briefing event for MPs and peers based on output from the NREFS project. This will offer a route to policy influence for valuable new research findings.
It is expected that the NREFS project will generate a large number of papers in journals and at international conferences. Publication in a scientific journal followed by coverage in the press provides a well-proven route to more general appreciation of important results such as will be produced by NREFS. The PI's, Prof. Thomas's findings on risk issues have been covered by both broadsheets and the popular press, and he has given several radio and television interviews. Co-Investigator Dr Nuttall has had similar experience of talking to the media. It is planned that important and news-worthy items arising from NREFS research will be given similar exposure.
The problem addressed, namely planning for post-accident mitigation following a large nuclear accident such as Fukushima, is of high and international importance.
The Secretary of the DAE, will be a member of the UK-India project team for NREFS. He will provide a conduit for rapid implementation in the Indian nuclear industry of valuable new ideas as they arise from the research.
A high-level final workshop will be held at City University, London to publicise the results. This will involve not only UK and Indian partners but also senior staff from the European nuclear industry. Invitations will be offered to EDF and Areva, for example, as well as to the Nuclear Industry Association. This will offer a route to industry implementation of valuable new ideas from the research.
The Parliamentary and Scientific Committee will be asked to consider running a briefing event for MPs and peers based on output from the NREFS project. This will offer a route to policy influence for valuable new research findings.
It is expected that the NREFS project will generate a large number of papers in journals and at international conferences. Publication in a scientific journal followed by coverage in the press provides a well-proven route to more general appreciation of important results such as will be produced by NREFS. The PI's, Prof. Thomas's findings on risk issues have been covered by both broadsheets and the popular press, and he has given several radio and television interviews. Co-Investigator Dr Nuttall has had similar experience of talking to the media. It is planned that important and news-worthy items arising from NREFS research will be given similar exposure.
Organisations
Publications
Argyris N
(2017)
Nuclear emergency decision support: A behavioural OR perspective
in European Journal of Operational Research
Ashley S
(2017)
Considerations in relation to off-site emergency procedures and response for nuclear accidents
in Process Safety and Environmental Protection
Ashley S
(2017)
Predicting the cost of the consequences of a large nuclear accident in the UK
in Process Safety and Environmental Protection
Barons M
(2018)
Assessment of the response of pollinator abundance to environmental pressures using structured expert elicitation
in Journal of Apicultural Research
Cardin M
(2017)
Strategic real option and flexibility analysis for nuclear power plants considering uncertainty in electricity demand and public acceptance
in Energy Economics
Collins D
(2014)
Measuring gross disproportion in environmental precaution to establish regulatory expropriation and quantum of compensation in international investment arbitration
in European Journal of Law and Economics
French S
(2018)
Decision Analysis and Political Processes
in Decision Analysis
| Description | The NREFS project has shown that the detrimental impact on the public of a large nuclear accident is likely to be much smaller than feared. The highest loss of life expectancy amongst the Ukrainian public after Chernobyl averaged a few weeks out of the approximately 33 years they possessed. Relocation is likely to be inadvisable for all except a small number. |
| Exploitation Route | We shall be publishing a part-special edition of Process Safety and Environmental Protection. We shall be presenting our results to MPs. |
| Sectors | Agriculture Food and Drink Communities and Social Services/Policy Education Energy Environment Financial Services and Management Consultancy Healthcare Leisure Activities including Sports Recreation and Tourism Government Democracy and Justice Security and Diplomacy |
| URL | http://www.nrefs.org/ |
| Description | The NREFS project addressed the question of how best to cope when an actual nuclear reactor melts down and deposits a significant amount of radioactive fallout over the surrounding area? Exactly this happened at Chernobyl in April 1986, where to make matters worse, the reactor went super prompt critical for a few seconds, depositing a large amount of additional heat into the core. A quarter of a century later, another very large radioactive release occurred at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station. Here the operating reactors were shut down as soon as the Tohoku Earthquake was detected but the tsunami following on close behind knocked out the reactor cooling system. The overheated fuel assemblies then reacted with steam to produce hydrogen gas, which led to explosions in the reactor buildings and the release of radionuclides into the environment. In both cases, the authorities' principal response for protecting the public was to move large numbers of people away from the surrounding area. A total of 335,000 were relocated after Chernobyl, never to return. Meanwhile after the accident at Fukushima Daiichi, 111,000 people were required to leave areas declared as restricted and an additional 49,000 joined the exodus voluntarily; about 85,000 had not returned to their homes by 2015. Were these sensible policy reactions? Was there an alternative? How should we respond to a big nuclear accident in the future? Using publicly available data on the health consequences of the two severe nuclear events discussed above, the NREFS project showed the strategy of relocation was an overreaction in view of the actual, as opposed to feared, level of radiological risk faced by the public. It is likely to have caused more harm than good to the people moved. The decisions taken after the Chernobyl and Fukushima Daiichi accidents were examined using the J-value method, a new safety assessment technique that was validated against pan-national data during the course of the study. It was found that only between 10 and 20% of the 335,000 relocated permanently after Chernobyl should have been moved. No-one should have been relocated after Fukushima Daiichi. The broad thrust of the J-value findings is backed up by two other NREFS studies that employed different and diverse assessment methods. Economic optimal control techniques were applied by Manchester University to determine the best decisions after a large range of big nuclear accidents, assumed to take place across a range of different countries. Relocation was found not to be a sensible policy measure in any of the hundreds of base case scenarios the team examined and rarely optimal in any of its sensitivity cases. Meanwhile, the Open University applied Public Health England's PACE-COCO2 program suite to assess the likely effects on the public of a severe accident on a fictional nuclear reactor located on the South Downs of England. Even after applying a rather strict safe-return criterion, they find that the expected number of people needing to be relocated was only 620, orders of magnitude below the numbers moved at Chernobyl and Fukushima. The NREFS results were published as a Special Issue of Process Safety and Environmental Protection on 20 November 2017. Coverage by The Times, the Evening Standard and the BBC caused the story to go viral on the internet, leading to 14,000 downloads of NREFS Special Issue papers within 2 months. Trailed on the front page, a full page article appeared in the Financial Times to mark the 7th anniversary of the Fukushima Daiichi accident, making the NREFS case that the mass relocation of people had been excessive. Principal Investigator, Prof. Philip Thomas was invited to give a lecture to the US Federal Emergency Management Agency on 14 February 2018. He has been asked to lecture to the UK Health and Safety Executive in April 2018. He has been invited to speak at the American Nuclear Society/ Health Physics Society Joint Topical Meeting on low dose radiation in September 2018. |
| First Year Of Impact | 2018 |
| Sector | Energy,Environment,Government, Democracy and Justice |
| Impact Types | Cultural Societal Economic Policy & public services |
| Description | Daiwa Anglo-Japanese Foundation |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | 56 people from the public, Government and the Japanese press attended. Presentations on Fukushima Daiichi: Coping after a large nuclear accident. Presentations by Prof. Philip Thomas, City University London, Prof. William Nuttall, The Open University and Dr Ian Waddington of Ross Technologies Ltd on the NREFS project results. Discussions with the Chief Scientifice Advisor to DECC. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2014 |