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Drivers and Repercussions of UK Insect Declines (DRUID)

Lead Research Organisation: Rothamsted Research
Department Name: Protecting Crops and the Environment

Abstract

Due to their vast numbers and diversity, insects dominate natural ecosystems and processes. Wholesale insect declines could have profound consequences. Yet despite growing public concern about a possible "insect Armageddon," evidence of widespread insect declines remains fragmentary, even in the UK (arguably one of the best studied countries on Earth); nor do we understand the value that insects provide for wider society. A far stronger evidence-base is required to provide a secure basis for policy, to devise methods to reverse insect declines and protect the roles that insects play in multiple ecosystem services.

We have assembled four of the UK's leading insect dynamics research teams to assess the causes, consequences and potential remedies of insect declines. We will combine data from standardised insect monitoring programmes of a wide range of taxa, modelled outputs of biodiversity databases, and novel assays using weather radar signals to assess shifts in insect abundance, diversity, functional composition and biomass in both terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems across Britain. Species-level trend data will be assessed relative to a range of potential driver variables and species' traits in an overarching synthesis of decline patterns across taxa and environments. The team has unrivalled access to the latest UK datasets and modelling developments covering insects and environmental drivers down to 1-km resolution or finer, through a wide range of on-going environmental research projects and collaborating partner organisations. Our results will be used to inform mechanistic models to predict the dynamics of insect species and functional-groups across the UK in space and time. Functional consequences of insect declines will be assessed, with particular focus on trophic roles as prey in aerial (bird/bat) and aquatic (fish) systems, pollination and pest control functions, and in nutrient transport between freshwater and terrestrial ecosystems. How alterations in insect communities are linked to economic and cultural values will be assessed through a review of existing studies, augmented with participatory valuation approaches for ecosystem services that are poorly studied, such as cultural services. The population, community and functional models developed above will be applied to a diverse set of contrasting future climate, land-use and policy scenarios, to predict insect dynamics with and without specific mitigation measures. Both scenarios and mitigation options will be co-designed together with relevant stakeholders and linked to existing climate scenarios and planned agri-environmental schemes. Consequences of recent past, current and future scenarios for human welfare and natural capital will be estimated, using stakeholder-based valuations. Our novel, integrated approach will guarantee high quality and high impact research outputs, which will be widely disseminated to the scientific and stakeholder communities, and the general public. By engaging relevant policy and decision-makers at an early stage of the project, results will be tailored and directly relevant to on-going policy development in land management, biodiversity conservation and the implementation of natural capital approaches, maximising the likelihood of substantial impacts on both society and the natural world.

Publications

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McDermott A (2021) News Feature: To understand the plight of insects, entomologists look to the past. in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

 
Description We have compiled datasets covering a wide range of UK insect taxa, both from existing recording schemes and from standardised monitoring programs -- including new data from suction trap by-catch. We have also compiled data on many of the key potential drivers of insect change, and are linking these to local and national insect dynamics. We are more formally reporting on the taxonomic breakdown of the samples post-1990 and investigate potential drivers for these changes through publications and engagement.

Previous published work in Shortall et al. (2009) Insect Conservation and Diversity, 2: 251-260 showed that aerial insect biomass at four UK sites from 1974-2002 was in significant decline at one site, with the other three showing no significant trend. We show that updating this dataset to 2020 through DRUID activities for three of the sites results in the previously declining site showing no significant change while one site now shows a significant increase in biomass.

A recently accepted paper in Methods in Ecology and Evolution applies Artificial Neural Net (ANN) methods to link species' traits to responses to environmental drivers.

Bourhis, Y., Bell, J. R., Shortall, C. R., Kunin, W. E., & Milne, A. E. (2023). Explainable neural networks for trait-based multispecies distribution modelling-A case study with butterflies and moths. Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 14, 1531-1542. https://doi.org/10.1111/2041-210X.14097

Our ANN builds on species traits and, as such, constitutes a Joint Species Distribution Model (JSDM), able to identify not only species-specific responses to the environment, but also shared responses across the community that are mediated by species traits. Model performance evaluated at the species level quantifies not only the reliability of species predictions, but also how much of a species' responses is dictated by its traits and how much it deviates from a stereotyped response. These developments bring ANNs unmatched predictive capabilities to the field of JSDM, at the same time of lifting their reputed drawback of poor explainability. Nine insect groups were studied using citizen science data and long term UKBMS (butterflies) and Rothamsted Insect Survey data (moths). We aimed to predict species occupancy/abundance trends whilst explaining the contribution of traits and environmental drivers. One new paper is at review and another is in preparation.

We have developed novel tools for assessing the abundance of airborne insects over wide areas of Britain, using data from weather radar, in collaboration with the University of Leeds. A paper will be resubmitted and will be soon under under re-review.
Exploitation Route Certainly there are growing sets of results showing positive and negative trends in specific insect species and groups, and responses to key environmental and management drivers are likely to be of interest to stakeholders.

We show in paper that is preparation that 618,793 insects recorded from the Rothamsted Insect Survey archive (1990-2018), which DRUID employed two entomologists to delve into the samples to discover new data, showed that so called Cinderella species (important, but over-looked) tend to become more abundant in time, as well as appearing earlier in the season. Our paper at review titled 'Trait mediation explains decadal distributional shifts for a wide range of insect taxa' shows how voltinism, the number of generations and habitat breath are driving trends in 8 insect groups.

These findings provide the foundation for habitat management and policy impact to mitigate deleterious impact.
Sectors Agriculture

Food and Drink

Environment

Culture

Heritage

Museums and Collections

 
Description Several key members of the project team (Simon Potts, Claire Carvell, James Bell and our PI William Kunin) were asked to present oral evidence to public hearings of Parliamentary Science Innovation and Technology Committee's hearings on "Insect Declines and UK food Security" in June 2023. These formal hearings have been complemented by large numbers of informal public engagement events, ranging from meetings in pubs to the Great Yorkshire Show. We have brought together a Stakeholder Advisory Board, including representatives from BASF, Buglife, Butterfly Conservation, Department of Agriculture, Environment and Rural Affairs (DAFRA), Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA), The Environment Agency, The Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC), The National Farmers Union, Natural England, The Northern Ireland Government and The Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB); which is helping us to help us design our project outputs (fact sheets, policy briefs and videos) to maximize policy and public impact. These outputs, together with ongoing engagement activities, will continue throughout the remaining duration of the project and beyond. We have organised a final project meeting on the 11th June 2025 at the University of Reading and will invite the stakeholders listed above to see the research impact we have gained so far and contribute to new research impact.
First Year Of Impact 2023
Sector Agriculture, Food and Drink,Environment,Government, Democracy and Justice
 
Description Testimony to Parliamentary Committee
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact Contribution to Parliamentary review of insect declines and potential links to food security.
 
Description Written evidence submitted by Rothamsted Research: Rothamsted Insect Survey (INS0020) Insect decline and UK food security Inquiry The Rothamsted Insect Survey's Contribution to Insect Decline Research
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Contribution to a national consultation/review
URL https://committees.parliament.uk/event/18023/formal-meeting-oral-evidence-session/
 
Description Envision DTP "Reclaiming the night sky for moths: what drives the flight-to-light response and how can this be mitigated?"
Amount £90,000 (GBP)
Organisation Natural Environment Research Council 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 08/2023 
End 04/2027
 
Description SWBIO DTP: Long-term changes in the abundance and phenology of migrating insects as potential drivers of population change in insectivorous birds and bats
Amount £90,000 (GBP)
Organisation Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC) 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 08/2021 
End 10/2025
 
Title Improved methods for assessing aerial insect abundance using dual-polarization weather radar 
Description We have developed and tested analytical techniques for isolating information on airborne insect abundance and biomass from weather radar outputs. The tool will provide a powerful tool for assessing dynamics of an important facet of insect communities over vast spatial scales and at fine spatial and temporal resolution. We have tested the method against catch from an aerial suction-trap, and found strong correlations. One component of the method was published in 2022, and the full method and validation is described in a paper now submitted to PNAS. 
Type Of Material Improvements to research infrastructure 
Year Produced 2022 
Provided To Others? Yes  
Impact Too early to tell. 
 
Title Explainable neural networks for trait-based multi-species distribution modelling 
Description We demonstrate the use of a time distributed layer as a simple yet solid solution to account for traits in an artificial neural network (ANN), an example of machine learning approach to understand insect declines. This feature brings ANNs unmatched learning abilities to multi-species distribution models, enabling non-linear and interactive behaviours in a field otherwise dominated by generalized linear models. 
Type Of Material Computer model/algorithm 
Year Produced 2023 
Provided To Others? No  
Impact The model's predictions are being tested with experts using a Shiny App, identified in the links below. https://yo-b.shinyapps.io/survey_orthoptera/ https://yo-b.shinyapps.io/survey_odonates_GB/ https://yo-b.shinyapps.io/survey_carabids/ 
URL https://yo-b.shinyapps.io/survey_orthoptera/
 
Title Yearly occurrence of 544 species of moths (UK 1990-2019), with trait values and putative environmental drivers. 
Description The data set comprises 4 tables. First, the community data (YData) aggregates the yearly occurrences of 544 species of moth collected across the UK between 1990 and 2019 by the lightbulb trap network of the Rothamsted Insect Survey. The second table (TrData) aggregates the value of 6 response traits for the 544 moth species. The third table (XData) aggregates values of putative environmental drivers (weather, land-cover and topology) at the sites and years of trapping. Finally, the last table (gridXData) is a 1km resolution grid of the drivers for the year 2020. The three first tables enable the training of species distribution models, while the grid enables the production of UK-wide map the the species distributions with the trained models. 
Type Of Material Database/Collection of data 
Year Produced 2022 
Provided To Others? Yes  
Impact Paper at review titled "Explainable neural networks for joint species distribution modelling-a case study with butterflies and moths" 
URL https://repository.rothamsted.ac.uk/item/988z5/yearly-occurrence-of-544-species-of-moths-uk-1990-201...
 
Description DRUID Project collaborator - CEH 
Organisation UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution We will provide evidence and expertise for an analysis of insect declines for the DRUID project, exploiting all of our resources.
Collaborator Contribution As part of the DRUID project, funded by NERC and led by Bill Kunin at Leeds, the team will study insect declines. Full project collaborators are Leeds, CEH, Reading and Rothamsted (NE/V006916/1). Although we have had collaborations with CEH before, this is new and a direct link to Richard Pywell, Claire Carvell and their staff.
Impact None yet
Start Year 2021
 
Description DRUID Project collaborator - LEEDS 
Organisation University of Leeds
Department School of Geography Leeds
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution We will provide evidence and expertise for an analysis of insect declines for the DRUID project, exploiting all of our resources.
Collaborator Contribution As part of the DRUID project, funded by NERC and led by Bill Kunin at Leeds, the team will study insect declines. Full project collaborators are Leeds, CEH, Reading and Rothamsted (NE/V006916/1)
Impact None yet
Start Year 2021
 
Description DRUID Project collaborator - Reading 
Organisation University of Reading
Department School of Agriculture, Policy and Development Reading
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution We will provide evidence and expertise for an analysis of insect declines for the DRUID project, exploiting all of our resources.
Collaborator Contribution As part of the DRUID project, funded by NERC and led by Bill Kunin at Leeds, the team will study insect declines. Full project collaborators are Leeds, CEH, Reading and Rothamsted (NE/V006916/1)
Impact None yet
Start Year 2021
 
Description Status of Insects: An International Research Coordination Network 
Organisation University of Connecticut
Country United States 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Member of the nascent Research Coordination Network led from University of Connecticut.
Collaborator Contribution Development of cross-institute research and grant proposals.
Impact No firm outcomes as yet.
Start Year 2022
 
Description Alabama Farmers visit 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Spoke to visiting farmer's delegation about Rothamsted Insect Survey suction-trap network and research
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2023
 
Description BASF Event - Cultivating Biodiversity 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact This event will bring together experts, researchers, and practitioners to discuss a broad range of topics and how we can work collaboratively to advance sustainable agriculture. Using the BASF sustainable platform at the Grange, we will address topics such as the current state of biodiversity, the impact of agriculture and land use on biodiversity, how do we stride towards sustainable solutions and the role of cutting-edge technologies and innovative IPM approaches in promoting biodiversity-friendly agriculture. Thursday 11th July 2024 from 10:00 - 14.00, hosted at The Grange in Mears Ashby, Northamptonshire, NN6 0EA.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2024
 
Description BBSRC Case Study: Insect Survey aids decision-making for farmers and environment 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Delivering data since 1964, the Rothamsted Insect Survey informs decisions that cut the use of harmful insecticides and boost productivity and biodiversity.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2022
URL https://www.ukri.org/about-us/how-we-are-doing/research-outcomes-and-impact/bbsrc/insect-survey-aids...
 
Description DRUID - a Keynote speech to the European Congress of Entomology, Crete 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Artificial Neural Networks Predict Species Distributions for a Wide Range of Insect Taxa
Y. Bourhis (lead author), C.R. Shortall, B. Kunin, A. Milne, J.R. Bell (presenter)
XII European Congress of Entomology
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2023
URL https://ece2023.com/
 
Description DRUID - a talk to recorders at Orthoptera Special Interest Group (SIG) 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact A presentation to encourage county and national recorders to engage with us and contribute expertise to our app to estimate presence only data acroiss the UK based on machine learning
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2022
URL https://www.royensoc.co.uk/event/orthopterasig22/
 
Description DRUID: Drivers & Repercussions of UK Insect Declines Stakeholders Advisory Board workshop 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Date: 28 March 2023, 9:30 - 15:30
Venue: Drayson Room, Royal Geographical Society, 1 Kensington Gore, South Kensington, London, SW7 2AR. www.rgs.org. Please use the Exhibition Road entrance
Stakeholders: Chris Hartfield (NFU), David Rymer (Defra), Karim Vahed (BugLife), John Murray-Bligh (EA), Lia Gilmor (BCT), Malcolm Burgess (RSPB), Mike Green (BASF), Paul Woodcock (JNCC), Pauline Campbell (NI Gov), Richard Smith (NE), & Simon Curson (NE)
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2023
 
Description ESA Insect monitoring technology workshop 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact A workshop on "automated monitoring of insects" -- held at the Ecological Society of America annual meetings in Portland Oregon on 10 August 2023. The review included discussion of the use of AI-based tools for insect monitoring.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2023
 
Description Ento22 presentation - Unearthing Otherwise Unknown Insect Responses to Change Using a Unique Archive 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact The presentation 'Unearthing Otherwise Unknown Insect Responses to Change Using a Unique Archive' was given by Chris Shortall to highlight the services of the RIS, paricularly the archive that hosts 100 million insects
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2022
URL https://www.royensoc.co.uk/event/ento22/#Programme
 
Description EntoLive The Rothamsted Insect Survey NBRI: From Microscopes to Machine Learning 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact The story of the Rothamsted Insect Survey (RIS) starts back in 1964 at a time when the Beetles released Can't Buy Me Love' and that finishes sometime in the future when entomology might look quite different. The RIS monitors many groups of insects using its 12.2 m suction-trap and light-trap data networks. James discusses insect declines and the work of the RIS. James is joined by Dr Yoann Bourhis who talks about the DRUID (Drivers and Repercussions of UK Insect Declines) NERC-funded project and demonstrates a citizen science app that uses machine learning to predict where species might be, extending our knowledge about current species distributions.

Dr James R. Bell is a Principal Scientist and Head of the RIS, a BBSRC National Bioscience Research Infrastructure. James is a quantitative ecologist with expertise in entomology having published widely on beetles, spiders, aphids, moths and many other things besides. James is senior author on Practical Field Ecology: A Project Guide which offers a comprehensive, accessible introduction to experimental design, field monitoring skills for plants and animals, data analysis, interpretation and reporting. The book is now in its second edition.

Dr Yoann Bourhis is an ecosystems modeller, with expertise in machine learning. Yoann's main activity is as a post-doc on the DRUID project, funded by NERC. DRUID will take an unprecedented amount of citizen science data to underpin evidence-based policies to help nature. A key paper relating to Yoann's presentation was published in Methods in Ecology and Evolution earlier this year and demonstrates how it is possible to use machine learning to understand the distribution of insects using their life history traits (e.g. wing length, host plants etc) and environmental drivers (temperature, rainfall etc) to predict new distributions of insects. It is hoped that this new knowledge will guide recorders to sites where the species is predicted but no survey has yet confirmed the presence of that species. Yoann has developed an app and we invite you to contribute your experience and expertise.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2023
URL https://biologicalrecording.co.uk/2023/09/21/rothamsted-insect-survey/
 
Description Global Biosphere Sensing Network workshop 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Workshop to discuss novel technologies for monitoring natural populations and processes, including visual, acoustic, eDNA and radar-based tools for monitoring insects.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2024
 
Description Great Yorkshire Show exhibit 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Public event, focused on Yorkshire region, with an agricultural slant. Exhibit was about insects, their role as ecosystem service providers, and new methods for monitoring them.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2023
 
Description Human Cooperation and Insect Management - A Keynote Speech to the Royal Entomological Society's Sustainable Agroeculture SIG 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Human Cooperation and Insect Management
James R. Bell, Suzanne Clark, Andrew Mead, Alice Milne
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2023
URL https://www.royensoc.co.uk/membership-and-community/special-interest-groups/sustainable-agriculture/
 
Description Invited Attendance at Insect Declines and Science event Chelsea Flower Show 2023 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact A RES garden to support insects and showcase how insect declines can be mitigated
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2023
URL https://www.royensoc.co.uk/chelsea/
 
Description The House of Commons Science, Innovation and Technology Committee 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Gave evidence to Insect decline and UK food security inquiry. 7 June 2023 - Insect decline and UK food security - Oral evidence


Insect numbers are difficult to quantify however recent research suggests that in the UK flying insects have declined by 60% in the past 20 years. Insects provide pivotal roles for UK food security including pollination and pest or weed regulation. There are also concerns that pest species may be increasing with negative impacts on crop yields.

The Committee aims to build understanding of the role of insects in the UK food system and the economic impact of their decline and the associated risk to UK food security. It seeks to examine the evidence base for insect abundance in the UK, current drivers of insect loss and the Government's interventions to halt or reverse declines.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2023
URL https://committees.parliament.uk/event/18023/formal-meeting-oral-evidence-session/
 
Description UK Govt Civil Service fast stream programme: insect declines and farming 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an open day or visit at my research institution
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact More than 50 civil servants met outside at the Rothamsted Insect Survey suction-trap to discuss insect declines and farming, particualrly sugar beet. Additional attendees were from DEFRA, DSIT, BEIS
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2023
 
Description Visit by Greg Clark MP, Katherine Fletcher MP, Stephen Metcalf MP of the Science, Innovation and Technology Select Committee 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Rothamsted Visit by House Of Commons Science, Innovation & Technology Committee members: Chair of the Committee Greg Clark MP, Katherine Fletcher MP and Stephen Metcalfe MP
Accompanied by Secretariat Claire Kanja & Ian CruseTuesday 26th October 9:30-12:30
Inquiry Into Insect Decline And UK Food Security.

Speakers: James Bell (lead and overview), Alice Milne (DRUID - insect declines), Gaetan Seimandi-Corda (OSR and beneficial parasitoids), Lawrence Bramham (BYDV), Izayana Sandoval-Carvajal (BYDV), Dion Garrett (flying insect ecology), Kelly Jowett (carabid ecology), Ishbel Hayes (moth declines and light pollution), Elliott Cornelius (moth vision and light pollution), Hannah Romanowski (bats)
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2023