Addressing the unintended consequences of tropical forest restoration for people and biodiversity.

Earlier this year, the media reported on a major new report (endorsed by most governments) that drew attention to the decline in natural ecosystems on our planet, and why this matters for human wellbeing. There are now growing calls for governments and society to address environmental issues - for example, the support for Greta Thunberg's climate strikes. Some governments are now working towards this: for example, by committing to restore natural ecosystems and reforest degraded lands. This is based on evidence suggesting that dangerous global warming could be stopped if greenhouse gas emissions from deforestation (and fossil fuel use) are halted, and if forest restoration locked up carbon.
The growing interest in restoration sounds like a good thing, but it could have unintended consequences if not carefully planned. Natural ecosystems, agriculture, the world economy, and patterns of consumption and trade are connected in a global system. So, for example, taking pasture land out of production to plant forests might indirectly drive deforestation somewhere else, if the demand for pasture is not addressed. This makes designing successful policies about the environment very difficult. It is now a huge and urgent challenge to incorporate our understanding of how social, economic and ecological systems interact, and to develop tools that integrate our understanding and allow us to make informed decisions.
I am applying for this fellowship to learn from experts in systems analysis at The International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), and UK scientists who study how the interactions between people and forests can best be understood and modelled. Systems analysis is a research approach generally defined as: the science of objectively formulating and solving complex problems, typically with many feedbacks. Understanding land use change is a typical example where system analysis is helpful, as there are many drivers of change (agriculture, energy, infrastructure, conservation), many linked policies, and complex feedbacks between them all. During the fellowship I will do three things.
Firstly, I will bring together two approaches for modelling future land use change (e.g. forest conversion to agriculture). This will enable a much better understanding of how different policies could affect future land use change. Thanks to my prior experience and training, and the expertise of experienced scientists at IIASA and in the UK who will help me develop the relevant skills, this is achievable. I will test whether these models are a real improvement over what was available before by comparing model results to observations of real land use change in the past.
Secondly, I will apply my model to the real case study of Colombia, a leader in forest restoration (with a national restoration plan) which has exceptional unique wildlife and ecosystems. I will use the model to predict what might happen by 2040 if forest restoration occurs as planned. I will ask if restoring forests changes other patterns of land use relative to no restoration. In particular, does this actually cause increased deforestation elsewhere? I will then assess the expected effect of future land use on biodiversity (especially endemic species that only live in Colombia) and ecosystem services (carbon draw down and storage, water quality and quantity). I will also ask if different government policies would have different outcomes, and assess the relative importance of global trade. It is my goal that the outputs of this research are used to directly inform policies that result in better outcomes for nature and people.
Finally, I will build collaborations between experts at IIASA and scientists here in the UK, who are all interested in these complex, interconnected questions of great global importance. The aim is for this fellowship to kick start a range of collaborations which will outlast my three years of funding, and help me build my future research career.

This research is designed to provide stakeholders involved in forest restoration planning with information they need to avoid unintended consequences, and improve net positive outcomes for people, ecosystems, and biodiversity.

To achieve this, we aim to deliver on the following objectives:
- Technical experts advising on policies at national and international scales have access to an improved model;
- International policy makers/NGOs have improved awareness of outcomes and feedbacks from restoration, and the importance of trade vs national policies;
- National policy makers/NGOs in Colombia have improved awareness of outcomes for ecosystem services and biodiversity from specific restoration scenarios - could improve policy and incentive design;
- National-scale maps of likely land use change under scenarios of restoration for Colombia are made available, that could be used to target forest management; and
- Local stakeholders have an improved understanding of how restoration projects fit into wider outcomes.
This research will provide benefits to the following groups:

1) International science-policy initiatives: the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES)
IPBES aims to strengthen the science-policy interface around biodiversity and ecosystem services, for the conservation and sustainable use of biodiversity, human well-being and sustainable development. The work program deliverables include "Deliverable 3(c): Policy support tools and methodologies for scenario analysis and modelling of biodiversity and ecosystem services". My work will help fill a gap for national-scale modelling and will be of value to the ongoing IPBES process. It is my expectation that learning from Dr. Rosa's experience I will be able to demonstrate the importance of reliable LULCC projections, and the importance of capturing these dynamics at multiple scales, to members of the Scenarios and Models expert group.
2) National policy initiatives
Forest restoration is an active area of activity and policy change in the case study country, Colombia, a leader in restoration planning for the region, has made within Initiative 20 x 20. This included a National Restoration Plan co-produced by the Humboldt Institute, with whom I will work closely during this project. The institute is in a position to lead change by planning restoration at a landscape scale, and its close engagement with government. Other partners in the 20x20 initiative are likely to be interested in the results of my work, including forest, wildlife and conservation, hydropower companies, agricultural NGOs, sustainable business consultants, and the IUCN. The Natural Capital Project, which has recently developed a new decision-support tool designed to prioritise restoration locations (ROOT) is also actively working in Colombia - the findings of my work are likely to be highly relevant to the application of their models.
3) Local stakeholders
Forest restoration takes place on non-forested land owned or managed by local stakeholders e.g. cattle ranchers or farmers. Involvement of local stakeholders is a key for successful restoration. Local stakeholders would benefit from understanding likely impacts of forest restoration in their area on ecosystem service delivery and biodiversity at wider scales. This may aid their understanding of reasons for widespread restoration efforts beyond their local area.
4) Non-governmental organisations
Forest restoration is high on the global policy agenda, as already outlined. Non-governmental organisations and practitioners involved in conservation (e.g. Wildlife Conservation Society, Birdlife International, with whom I already have connections) and campaign groups involved in land use change and deforestation (e.g. Mighty Earth, Global Witness) will be interested in the high-level messages from my work. I will be able to make recommendations about restoration policies and potential feedbacks.