Theory of Change Observatory on Disaster Resilience
Lead Research Organisation:
CRANFIELD UNIVERSITY
Department Name: School of Water, Energy and Environment
Abstract
Humanitarian disasters such as droughts expose approximately 10 million people in Sub-Saharan Africa to food, water and energy insecurity. Besides the humanitarian consequences disasters such as floods also heighten investment risks due to creation of "stranded assets" such as wastewater treatment plants in developing countries. Global climate models can be used to identify the geographical distribution of disaster risk but without being able to specify the regional intensity, frequency and duration of events. In Sub-Saharan Africa the difference between what models forecast and the reality of dryness has come to be known as the "East Africa Climate paradox". Because of model inconsistency, it is difficult for
investors and decision makers to be forewarned about impending events and to respond when they occur. Two recent policy trends have however converged to enhance the potential for Cyber-enabled Effective Disaster Response: (a) the expansion of Regional Early Warning Systems (REWS) and (b) a growing demand for open data platforms to enhance accountability of decision-making processes. For instance, the Africa Data Consensus (ADC) resolved to emphasize the role of open data networks to support coherent decision
making through better organization of data and models. From a scientific standpoint Agent Based Modelling has also begun to advocate more forcefully for engagement of stakeholders to develop and calibrate models. In this regard, our prior research to pilot-test the Wastewater Reuse Effectiveness Index (WREI) for Sustainable Development Goal 6.3 revealed the potential of down-scaled models to advance circular economy pathways, such as wastewater recycling with potential to mitigate disaster risk.
The overall aim of the Theory of change Observatory project will therefore be to enhance regional capacity to develop, pilot-test and validate regional climate models that enables the prediction, assessment and response to effects of droughts and flood risk by:
(Obj 1) Developing a place-based observatory based on principles of dispersed data handling and reuse (Work Package (WP) 1,4);
(Obj 2) Co-curating and co-designing regional research that focuses on down-scaling and coupling robust models of disaster risk monitoring (WP2,3); and
(Obj 3) Pilot-testing and validating composite indices as a means of knowledge translation with the objective of building a theory of change on disaster resilience (WP5).
investors and decision makers to be forewarned about impending events and to respond when they occur. Two recent policy trends have however converged to enhance the potential for Cyber-enabled Effective Disaster Response: (a) the expansion of Regional Early Warning Systems (REWS) and (b) a growing demand for open data platforms to enhance accountability of decision-making processes. For instance, the Africa Data Consensus (ADC) resolved to emphasize the role of open data networks to support coherent decision
making through better organization of data and models. From a scientific standpoint Agent Based Modelling has also begun to advocate more forcefully for engagement of stakeholders to develop and calibrate models. In this regard, our prior research to pilot-test the Wastewater Reuse Effectiveness Index (WREI) for Sustainable Development Goal 6.3 revealed the potential of down-scaled models to advance circular economy pathways, such as wastewater recycling with potential to mitigate disaster risk.
The overall aim of the Theory of change Observatory project will therefore be to enhance regional capacity to develop, pilot-test and validate regional climate models that enables the prediction, assessment and response to effects of droughts and flood risk by:
(Obj 1) Developing a place-based observatory based on principles of dispersed data handling and reuse (Work Package (WP) 1,4);
(Obj 2) Co-curating and co-designing regional research that focuses on down-scaling and coupling robust models of disaster risk monitoring (WP2,3); and
(Obj 3) Pilot-testing and validating composite indices as a means of knowledge translation with the objective of building a theory of change on disaster resilience (WP5).
Publications
| Description | This award has changed its focus from the original submission due to change in the PI of the project which was agreed with Belmont Forum, including EPSRC. This change in the leadership has required redefinition of the research programme. Belmont Forum, with the participation of EPSRC as the funder of the UK programme of work, has approved the new research programme titled, 'Management of Disaster Risk and Societal Resilience (MADIS)' on 29/3/2022. MADIS is led by Prof Jacobson at Penn State University (PSU), in collaboration with Prof Nardocci at University of Sao Paulo (USP), Prof Konak at PSU and myself. The revised research programme of MADIS has the following four phases: Phase 1- A Taxonomy of Drought Vulnerability and Resilience Indicators (led by PSU) aims to undertake Delphi survey with international experts. Phase 2- Framework development (led by USP) to identify relationship and interdependency of indicators and impacts. Phase 3. Decision support system development (led by PSU) aims to evaluate drought loss reduction and resilience strategies. Phase 4. Verify the framework and refine the proposed decision support system through case studies (led by CU) undertakes work in Morocco, in collaboration with University Mohammed VI Polytechnic (UM6P). A key finding of the award to date is the lack of clarify in the types of indicators (N= >100) used to define and measure hazards, vulnerability, and resilience as well as the relationships between them. The project team has assessed these indicators to measure the impacts of droughts (N=36). These 36 indicators then were assessed via an online international survey, to identify the relevance, importance and data availability of these indicators to measure hazards, vulnerability and resilience as well as their scope to measure coping, adaptation and transformation to droughts. The experts identified N=11 indicators that measures the impact of droughts or coping capacity. We then undertook field works in Morocco (2023), South Africa (2023) and Turkey (2024) with the small farmers to gather their views about the relationship of these N=11 indicators to capture the impacts of drought as well as enabling them to cope better with droughts. In parallel, we have also undertaken policy maker surveys in Morocco, UM6P and Turkey to understand how droughts are creating new challenges on water-energy-food nexus. |
| Exploitation Route | Our developing more holistic indicators to take into account institutional, infrastructural and societal dimensions will enable the decision makers (ie policy makers, local stakeholders, communities) in our partner countries to improve their capacity in predicting, monitoring and responding to disasters. |
| Sectors | Agriculture Food and Drink Communities and Social Services/Policy Digital/Communication/Information Technologies (including Software) Energy Environment Government Democracy and Justice |
| Description | We're collaborating with an academic partner (UM6P) and a government research department, INRA in Morocco. They have expressed strong interest to find out the outcomes of our project at our workshop in March 2023. We will be sharing our findings with them so that this informs their policy development and implementation. Our collaboration in Turkey (funded by Penn State University) enabled us to understand both policy maker and small farmer views on the relationships of indicators to understand the impacts of droughts and to cope better with them. |
| First Year Of Impact | 2023 |
| Sector | Agriculture, Food and Drink,Digital/Communication/Information Technologies (including Software),Energy,Environment |
| Impact Types | Societal Policy & public services |
| Description | A Review of Analytical Methods to Develop Composite Drought Resilience Indexes |
| Geographic Reach | Multiple continents/international |
| Policy Influence Type | Contribution to new or improved professional practice |
| Impact | By sharing the best practice across the globe on the use of drought indicators, we aimed to improve the capacity of other countries' preparation to manage the impacts of droughts. |
| Title | Adaptation and application of Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping to farming communities across different countries |
| Description | We used an adapted form of fuzzy cognitive mapping to engage with drought risk communities. It attempts to integrate delphi surveys, used in the project with experts in drought,by using the indicators generated in that process and using those indicators as 'nodes' for FCM maps. |
| Type Of Material | Improvements to research infrastructure |
| Year Produced | 2023 |
| Provided To Others? | No |
| Impact | To soon to say as final workshop only took place a few days ago. The results will be publishable. |
| Title | Drought indicator selection process |
| Description | 1. The project team (situated in Brazil, USA and England) have iteratively designed a process to identify and interrogate indicators, in this case drought indicators, for use in a Delphi survey. The process sets out how to robustly select indicators (or data) from existing literature from which to incorporate into a Delphi online survey. The survey itself is the most comprehensive of its kind, to the knowledge of the research team, and has involved several documented steps in terms of indicator identification, amalgamation, selection and/or rejection before incorporation into the international Delphi survey. The survey participants are global and expressly include DAC countries and so will include their insights into drought risk indicators. 2. The process adds to Delphi survey processes by setting out a clear and robust process for initial indicator selection prior to Delphi being applied. Over 100 indicators were assessed and considered in this way before a final list of 36 were identified for the Delphi process. 3. This is the most comprehensive review of drought indicators to the research team's knowledge and was enabled by the robust process designed by the team, 4. i) it was produced by the research team in England, USA and Brazil ii) the Delphi process is being answered by experts globally. |
| Type Of Material | Improvements to research infrastructure |
| Year Produced | 2023 |
| Provided To Others? | Yes |
| Impact | The process has only just been completed and so whilst is not confidential, has not yet been published. So far, it has enabled over 100 indicators to be robustly assessed and for taking forward into the Delphi component of the project. It has wider application as a process to be adopted when collaborating between expert research teams within different countries. The process enabled the research teams to work collaboratively to agree upon the final indicator selection for the Delphi process and sets out the decision-making processes that resulted in the design of the survey as well as the indicators themselves. |
| Description | Bogazici University, working with farmers at risk of drought in Turkey |
| Organisation | Bogazici University |
| Country | Turkey |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | We brought the findings of the MADIS project drought risk indicator research, water-energy-food nexus perspectives and a novel research tool (fuzzy cognitive mapping) to help explore the systems of impacts and coping strategies of at-risk farming communities in Turkey. |
| Collaborator Contribution | The collaborating partner acted as gatekeepers enabling access into the communities, ensured that the research activities were context and participant sensitive, facilitated the workshops and provided translation services. |
| Impact | Two workshops with farming communities. Multi-disciplinary - climate science, social science, data science. |
| Start Year | 2023 |
| Description | INRA, Ministry of Agriculture, Morocco (NC) |
| Organisation | French National Institute of Agricultural Research |
| Department | INRA Rabat |
| Country | Morocco |
| Sector | Charity/Non Profit |
| PI Contribution | The research team presented the results from the data gathering stage so far and provided insights into what we are finding in terms of drought indicators and the WEF nexus. A series of questions were also asked of the participants as prompts to discuss decision and policy making so far. The session explored the decisions to date and how current structures were coping with the new climate change induced scenarios of more frequent droughts. Existing tools, networks and structures were explored. This will inform how the research can best be applied and used as a decision support tool. |
| Collaborator Contribution | The partners formally presented to the research team some of the issues they were encountering in terms of drought risk and climate change in an agricultural context. They engaged with discussions around existing systems and how they were coping with the additional stress to the system through climate change and drought impacts. This provides detailed context specific information to guide decision support tools. |
| Impact | 1. the organisation is the INRA based in Rabat Morocco. They are affiliated to the Ministry of Agriculture in Morocco. 2. the collaboration is an exchange of information in terms of data gathered, how it can be applied and to understand context specific issues and nuances around drought risk in a country with a significant dependence on agriculture and one coping with climate change and drought. |
| Start Year | 2023 |
| Description | Organisation of workshop on the interaction and interdependency of water-energy-food nexus and universal basic income schemes |
| Organisation | Penn State University |
| Department | Penn State Abington |
| Country | United States |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | I've contributed to the development of the workshop and the identification of research questions to focus on at the meeting, in collaboration with Penn State University, Namibia University of Science and Technology and University of Freiburg. Due to family commitments, I wasn't able to attend the workshop which took place 7-8 March 2022. However, we are keen to explore developing further research proposals. |
| Collaborator Contribution | Through regular meetings, we have identified a research focus and developed the workshop programme. Two, half-day workshops aims to focus on developing shared understanding of water-energy-food nexus on day 1 and the use of universal basic income schemes to support the resilience of communities in Namibia. |
| Impact | This is a multi-disciplinary collaboration including inputs from economics, environmental science, energy economics, forestry and agricultural economics. |
| Start Year | 2021 |
| Description | University of Free State, SA - working with small-scale farmers vulnerable to drought |
| Organisation | University of Free State, Bloemfontein |
| Country | South Africa |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | We brought a team experienced in a novel application of fuzzy cognitive mapping to enable engagement with at risk farming communities and map the impact and coping strategies to drought. This technique helps to show the drought impacts and coping strategies in a system and to support policymaking by identifying where in the system policies may want to focus. |
| Collaborator Contribution | We worked with UFS to identify farming communities at risk of drought and to learn from their experiences. This was to ensure that the project engaged with a range of different knowledges and lived experiences. As well as identification they enabled access into the communities and acted as gatekeepers to facilitate the research work. Through this collaboration we were able to map impacts and coping strategies in the communities relevant to drought risk and weather pattern change. |
| Impact | Two workshops with farmers Currently two papers submitted / to be submitted for publication |
| Start Year | 2023 |
| Description | Contributed to an online international survey which was launched by our project partners at Penn State University in USA |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | We compiled a list of over 1200 international experts working on disaster related research. We have designed a survey which was launched by our colleagues at Penn State University on the use of different indicators to analyse and monitor the impacts of disasters. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
| URL | https://pennstate.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_eXUrShhMraSTprw |
| Description | Online survey and engagement with policymakers |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | 1. Engagement with policymakers via a survey on drought risk experiences in the context of the WEF nexus and early warning systems. The survey is still underway. 2. the survey is taking place within Morocco 3. Policymakers at national and regional level within Morocco. The survey is still underway. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
| Description | Policymakers workshop, Water Energy Food Nexus and Drought risk |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | 1. Policymaker participants from the INRA connected to the Ministry of Agriculture in Morocco attended a half day workshop with the research team in Rabat, Morocco on 2nd March 2023. - The findings of the drought indicator survey and feedback from interview data was presented. This will enhance the data set for the project. - A series of discussion questions were raised addressing policy decisions and drought experiences with reference to WEF. This informs the projects work on trade-offs within WEF. - There was a sharing of ideas on how the research could be used and integrated and how this could influence thinking and decision making around drought risk and early warning systems within Morocco. (Note the data is still being assimilated). 2. The workshop took place in Morocco 3. Policymakers within the INRA in Morocco. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
| Description | Semi-structured interviews with farming communities |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | 1. Semi-structured interviews took place to discuss the MADIS project and potential areas of support it could offer. This involved gaining insights into the issues the participants were facing in terms of drought with reference to the WEF nexus. It also showed significant differences in experiences within Morocco where the same weather conditions prevail but where policy or access to policy may differ. Different irrigation, energy sources and crop selection choices were noted. The interviews have prompted a further round of engagement with some participants to expand upon their answers which will integrate into indicator selection. 2. Morocco, although the findings will have application to similar regions globally as it informs the drought indicator and WEF project with global reach, 3. Location was around within farming communities in and around Settat, Morocco. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
| Description | Site visit to olive market and co-operative in Gemlik, Turkey |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | Regional |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | We visited a wholesale olive market and co-operative to discuss water-energy-food nexus issues around drought. As well as discussions on these issues as part of our research there was local media interest. The insights have highlighted additional issues around the complexity of decision-making around olive sales and how weather pattern change is making those decisoins more complicated. Further work on the decision-making tree is a potential avenue for further research stemming from this project, |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2024 |
| Description | Societal resilience to droughts and role of energy systems and policy |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | This two-day workshop was held in Laayoune in 21-22 June, 2022. It brought together academics from Mohammed VI Polytechnic University (UM6P) and Green Energy Park along with policy makers from Ministry of Agriculture, and INRA. The second day of the workshop involved visiting local farmer cooperatives to understand their capacity and challenges they are facing in dealing with the impacts of droughts on the region. These discussions generated ideas for a number of research topics to increase the utilization of renewable energy whilst increasing societal resilience. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
| Description | Societal resilience to droughts and role of energy systems and policy |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | This two-day workshop was held in Laayoune in 21-22 June, 2022. It brought together academics from Mohammed VI Polytechnic University (UM6P) and Green Energy Park along with policy makers from Ministry of Agriculture, and INRA. The second day of the workshop involved visiting local farmer cooperatives to understand their capacity and challenges they are facing in dealing with the impacts of droughts on the region. These discussions generated ideas for a number of research topics to increase the utilization of renewable energy whilst increasing societal resilience. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
| Description | Workshop and interviews with farming communities in South Africa |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | Regional |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | Engaged with communities to discuss and understand their lived experience of drought. These insights are to be drawn into the project to help rank the drought risk indicators. The discussions and data collection techniques (interviews, workshop (fuzzy cognitive mapping) help communities to articulate their experiences and to visualise how impacts of drought are far reaching and beyond narrow discussions around water availability. The workshops sparked debate and discussion about experiences and the cause and effect of drought on their communities. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
| Description | Workshop and interviews with farming communities in Turkey |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | Regional |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | Workshop with over 50 policymakers, plus two workshops with farming communities |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2024 |