Global-scale modelling of urban climate projection and adaptation based on local climate zones
Lead Research Organisation:
UNIVERSITY OF MANCHESTER
Abstract
Cities are the focal points of human and infrastructural vulnerability to climate-related hazards. They are also pivotal in implementing climate mitigation and adaptation policies. Thus, better representation of urban areas in numerical models is essential for improving large-scale predictions of local urban climates and developing effective adaptation strategies. However, urban areas currently remain underrepresented in global-scale Earth system models (ESMs).
As one of the ESMs that resolves urban representation and physical processes, the Community Earth System Model (CESM) represents cities into three basic types (built types): tall building district (TBD), high density (HD), and medium density (MD), based on LandScan 2004 population density data. This simplified representation of built types and the accompanying urban surface data do not effectively capture the complexities of urban environments, thus compromising the accuracy of future climate projections and evaluations of climate adaptation strategies.
This project aims to incorporate the local climate zones (LCZs) classification system—a system widely used in observational/measurement-based urban environment studies—into Earth system modelling. LCZs provide considerable potential to improve the representation of urban areas within numerical models, but their potential is as yet untested in a global model. Specifically, we will develop global-scale LCZs-based urban surface data based on 10 urban built types, create the "LCZs scheme" for the CESM, and evaluate LCZs-based urban climate projections (e.g., urban 2-m air temperatures over the next 50 years) along with the effectiveness of adaptation strategies (e.g., implementing white roofs).
The project is structured into three Working Packages (WPs), each aligned with a specific objective to ensure both effectiveness and appropriateness in achieving our goals. All methods, models, data, and research outputs will be made freely accessible, aiming to maximize the translation of our outputs into significant outcomes and widespread impacts for various end-users (e.g., from model developers to community stakeholders). WP1 focuses on developing and integrating local climate zones-based global urban surface parameters into the Community Land Model – Urban (CLMU), the urban model within the land component of the Community Earth System Model (CESM). WP2 will develop the LCZs scheme into the CESM and validate the simulations with various configurations. WP3 involves urban climate adaptation modelling with an emphasis on urban surface albedo modification.
This high-risk, high-reward initiative could disrupt current models, requiring extensive validation, but by doing so promises transformative insights into global urban climates. The tool will align with observational studies and provide valuable data for other community models. It aims to improve understanding of urban heat islands and climate extremes, and aid in developing urban climate adaptation strategies. Beneficiaries include the urban climate modelling community, urban planners, and policymakers, who will gain access to enhanced modelling tools and data for developing resilient and equitable urban strategies.
As one of the ESMs that resolves urban representation and physical processes, the Community Earth System Model (CESM) represents cities into three basic types (built types): tall building district (TBD), high density (HD), and medium density (MD), based on LandScan 2004 population density data. This simplified representation of built types and the accompanying urban surface data do not effectively capture the complexities of urban environments, thus compromising the accuracy of future climate projections and evaluations of climate adaptation strategies.
This project aims to incorporate the local climate zones (LCZs) classification system—a system widely used in observational/measurement-based urban environment studies—into Earth system modelling. LCZs provide considerable potential to improve the representation of urban areas within numerical models, but their potential is as yet untested in a global model. Specifically, we will develop global-scale LCZs-based urban surface data based on 10 urban built types, create the "LCZs scheme" for the CESM, and evaluate LCZs-based urban climate projections (e.g., urban 2-m air temperatures over the next 50 years) along with the effectiveness of adaptation strategies (e.g., implementing white roofs).
The project is structured into three Working Packages (WPs), each aligned with a specific objective to ensure both effectiveness and appropriateness in achieving our goals. All methods, models, data, and research outputs will be made freely accessible, aiming to maximize the translation of our outputs into significant outcomes and widespread impacts for various end-users (e.g., from model developers to community stakeholders). WP1 focuses on developing and integrating local climate zones-based global urban surface parameters into the Community Land Model – Urban (CLMU), the urban model within the land component of the Community Earth System Model (CESM). WP2 will develop the LCZs scheme into the CESM and validate the simulations with various configurations. WP3 involves urban climate adaptation modelling with an emphasis on urban surface albedo modification.
This high-risk, high-reward initiative could disrupt current models, requiring extensive validation, but by doing so promises transformative insights into global urban climates. The tool will align with observational studies and provide valuable data for other community models. It aims to improve understanding of urban heat islands and climate extremes, and aid in developing urban climate adaptation strategies. Beneficiaries include the urban climate modelling community, urban planners, and policymakers, who will gain access to enhanced modelling tools and data for developing resilient and equitable urban strategies.