Growing Up and Growing Old in Scotland: housing transitions and changing living arrangements for young and older adults, 1991-2011

The past few decades have seen significant demographic, social and economic changes that have resulted in increased diversity across individual lifecourses and housing careers. Rising divorce rates, delays in family formation, smaller families, re-partnering and longer healthy life expectancy have all undermined traditional notions of (married) stability and (mortgaged) home ownership for the greater part of adult life. Further, the recent economic downturn has compounded some of these changes, having a disproportionate impact on first time home buyers and contributing to an 'extended' transition from youth to adulthood. As young adults face difficulties in establishing independent living arrangements, so older adults are seen to be under-occupying larger family housing, leading to suggestions that the housing crisis in the UK is more about how the generations share housing than about housing supply. Although there is growing evidence of changes in age-related housing consumption from different parts of the developed world, there is need for a better understanding of what is driving these changes. This is especially so in relation to Scotland, which has a more rapidly ageing population, a different housing stock and a distinctive policy environment compared with the rest of the UK but is less frequently the focus of academic research. The aim of our study is to address this research gap by investigating the dimensions and determinants of housing transitions and changes in living arrangements for young and older adults in Scotland between 1991 and 2011.
The research will use data from Scottish censuses and the Scottish Longitudinal Study (SLS), a linked set of anonymised individual records, to answer three main research questions: (i) How have housing transitions and the living arrangements of young and older adults in Scotland changed between 1991 and 2011?; (ii) What are the key determinants (individual and contextual) of housing transitions and living arrangements? And have these changed over time? (iii) Has social and geographical polarisation in housing transitions and living arrangements of young and older adults increased over time?
Three complementary research strategies will be used to answer these questions. First, aggregate census data from 1991, 2001 and 2011 will be analysed to provide an overview of change. Of particular interest is whether there is an increased likelihood of young adults (aged 16-29) in Scotland staying longer with parents and/or entering the housing market at a later age, and of older adults (aged 55-69) 'under-occupying' housing. For both age groups, we will ascertain whether there has been a rise in living in complex households, either multi-generational and/or with unrelated others. Secondly, an integrated macro-micro modelling approach and data from the SLS will be used to identify the main determinants of change. A set of models predicting living arrangements (or housing status) at the end of the decade will include variables on individual characteristics, living arrangements (or housing status), and contextual factors - all measured at the start of the decade. Intervening events (e.g. births, deaths or illness) will also be accounted for. Comparing results for 1991-2001 with those for 2001-2011 will provide evidence on the main determinants of decadal change and whether the relative importance of these has altered over time. Lastly, we will refine these models and combine the samples for the two decades to investigate whether differences between (a) the most advantaged and disadvantaged social groups, and (b) local areas in Scotland, have widened over time. The findings will enhance the evidence base for policy development. The study will be the first on Scotland to analyse housing transitions and changing living arrangement for young and older adults within a common analytical framework. It will also be amongst the first to use the latest data from the 2011 census.

Significant changes in the living arrangements and housing transitions of young and older adults have been observed in many parts of the developed world over the past two decades. Recent reports in the UK suggest that, while young adults have become 'generation' rent, older adults are 'under-occupying' much needed family housing and increasingly reluctant to move into institutional care, contributing to a crisis in the housing market. This study will engage with debates about changing lifecourses and intergenerational justice, and contribute new evidence on the dimensions and determinants of these changes in Scotland. The findings will benefit an interdisciplinary audience of social scientists with research interests in population change, housing, youth studies and gerontology. This will be the first study on Scotland to provide a systematic analysis of the changing living arrangements and housing transitions for younger and older adults within a common analytical framework; and one of the first to examine the latest evidence from the 2011 census. The results will therefore be of additional benefit to scholars seeking to understand national or subnational variation in contemporary lifecourse changes across Europe, as well as showcasing the potential of the Scottish Longitudinal Study as a data source to researchers with interests in longitudinal data analysis.
The results of the project will also be communicated to a wider non-academic audience. Dissemination will include conference and seminar presentations, briefing meetings, reports and working papers, as well as papers in academic journals. By contributing to the evidence base for policy development and ensuring that the findings are widely disseminated, a variety of potential users in national and local government, private and professional organisations with interests in housing, and housing charities will also benefit from the project. The project has already attracted support from the National Records of Scotland (NRS) and an analytical report on changing household composition in Scotland based on the project findings will be published by NRS in a Census Reports series.
One of the ambitions of the research team is to bring together academic and non-academic stakeholders and promote dialogue among a variety of groups with interests in population change and housing across the lifecourse. The project will be conducted under the auspices of the ESRC Centre for Population Change (CPC), which already has active networks linking population researchers, data providers and policy makers. The research team is based in the Department of Geography and Sustainable Development at the University of St Andrews, which also includes the Centre for Housing Research (CHR). Colleagues at CHR have established networks of housing researchers, national and local government policy makers and housing providers. The team is therefore well placed to use these contacts to promote dialogue between diverse groups whose professional paths rarely cross. As well as engaging with diverse stakeholders at different stages throughout the research, the team will organise a 2-day workshop towards the end of the project with invited participants from across the spectrum of CPC and CHR interest groups. It is hoped that the creation of new networks of contact will be one of the lasting legacies of the project.